Skepticism about the ability of large, bureaucratic infrastructure firms to play in the fast-moving Internet industry – including either growing or attracting and retaining the necessary engineering talent – is well-founded … Entry of infrastructure providers into Internet access is a likely scenario, while success of that entry is much less likely. It is quite possible that some nimble Internet providers will establish effective capability in marketing, customer support and reputation well before the infrastructure providers learn to move quickly enough to be serious contenders.
Predictor: Gillett, Sharon Eisner
Prediction, in context:Sharon Eisner Gillett made the following remarks in a research presentation at INET ’95, the Internet Society’s 1995 International Networking Conference in Honolulu, Hawaii, June 27-30. At the time, she was completing her MS in MIT’s Technology and Policy Program and her MBA from MIT’s Sloan School of Management. She had spent the past three years as a research assistant with the Research Program on Communications Policy and the Telemedia, Networks, and Systems Group of MIT’s Laboratory for Computer Science. Her research was focused on telecommunications economics, Internet access, and universal service. From 1982-92 she had worked at Bolt Beranek & Newman Communications Corp. and Thinking Machines Corp. She says: ”From a strictly economic perspective, the threat of entry from infrastructure providers – especially telephone companies – is very real … Telephone and cable companies – incumbent monopolists with blockaded entry – had weak incentives to (and did not) originate the Internet service innovation. But now that the visible success of Internet providers has increased the certainty of this innovation, the frameworks … predict a much greater incentive for its adoption by incumbents … Internet and infrastructure providers operate in different environments. These environmental differences lead to significant differences in organizational culture and capability. For example, regulation fosters a mentality of always looking over your shoulder to keep the regulator happy, as opposed to creative, rapid innovation. Skepticism about the ability of large, bureaucratic infrastructure firms to play in the fast-moving Internet industry – including either growing or attracting and retaining the necessary engineering talent – is well-founded … Entry of infrastructure providers into Internet access is a likely scenario, while success of that entry is much less likely. It is quite possible that some nimble Internet providers will establish effective capability in marketing, customer support and reputation well before the infrastructure providers learn to move quickly enough to be serious contenders.”
Date of prediction: June 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: ISOC INET '95 (conference)
Title, headline, chapter name: Encouraging Cable and ISDN Internet Access
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.isoc.org/HMP/PAPER/086/txt/paper.txt
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney