No communications medium or consumer electronics technology has ever grown as quickly; not the fax machine, not even the PC. At this rate, within two years the citizens of cyberspace will outnumber all but the largest nations.
Predictor: Rutkowski, Anthony Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 report for VAR Business, T.H. Garretson quoted a paragraph of Internet Society Director Tony Rutkowski’s statement at a July 26 Congressional hearing. Rutkowski says: ”Last year, the Internet as a whole doubled in size, as it has done every year since 1988. It now reaches nearly 5 million ‘host’ computers, each of which may connect several individual users. At the same time, the Web grew almost twentyfold; in just 18 months users created more than 3 million multimedia pages of information, entertainment and advertising. No one knows how many people are behind this, but an estimate by John Quarterman, an Internet analyst, put the number of users at 13.5 million in October 1994. Whatever the number is today – 20 million is not an unreasonable guess – it will be at least half as big again a year from now. No communications medium or consumer electronics technology has ever grown as quickly; not the fax machine, not even the PC. At this rate, within two years the citizens of cyberspace will outnumber all but the largest nations.”
Biography:Anthony Michael (Tony) Rutkowski was a lawyer and engineer who was an executive director of the Internet Society during some key years of development in the 1990s. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: July 26, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Number of Users
Name of publication: VARBusiness
Title, headline, chapter name: Taking Care of Business
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Vol. 14, No. 114; Page 2
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Smith, Ian T.