If the mechanisms and the technology are compelling enough, consumer behavior will change over time.
Predictor: Andreessen, Marc
Prediction, in context:The following was taken from a transcript of a 1995 video interview of Marc Andreessen, conducted for the Smithsonian Institution by David K. Allison, curator of the division of information technology and society at the National Museum of American History: ”Allison- It would seem to me that, for consumers in particular, the overhead of maintaining the physical facilities where you view goods is going to be too costly to maintain because people can actually do this kind of commerce over the Internet.” ”Andreessen- Right; and actually five or 10 years is about the right timeframe to be thinking about that issue, because that’s about the right amount of time for consumer habits to change on a broad scale. It comes down to the user experience, fundamentally. If the mechanisms and the technology are compelling enough, consumer behavior will change over time. We’ve seen that happen in the last three or four years with PCs. They went from an esoteric hobbyist’s toy to the point where if you don’t use one today, you’re not one of the 40 to 50,000,000 who are pretty much shaping the way we all do everything. I think it’s going to be that kind of time period for that kind of shift to occur, and after that, we’re probably not going to look back. Everything will be completely different.”
Biography:Marc Andreessen worked with Eric Bina at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois in 1992, to develop a browser that would be usable on any computer, easy to use and graphically rich. In 1993, their browser, Mosaic, completely changed the face of the Internet Ð it allowed HTML “image” tags which make it so text and art can appear on the same page; it allowed easy text scrolling; and it introduced hyperlinks, allowing users to simply click on an area of the screen to go to another document on the Internet. In1994, Mosaic was developed and marketed; the product eventually was named Netscape. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: June 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: E-commerce
Name of publication: Smithsonian Institution Oral and Video Histories
Title, headline, chapter name: Marc Andreessen
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://americanhistory.si.edu/csr/comphist/ma1.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Allen, Patrick J.