The prediction, in brief:

The newly formed Internet Society projects – with tongue in cheek, I assume – that the Internet will connect every human on Earth by 2001. Well before that date, however, the Internet will outgrow TCP/IP.

Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert

Prediction, in context:

In a 1993 article for InfoWorld, Bob Metcalfe of 3Com writes:”The newly formed Internet Society projects – with tongue in cheek, I assume – that the Internet will connect every human on Earth by 2001. Well before that date, however, the Internet will outgrow TCP/IP. So new protocols are being developed for the Internet – its third generation. The next-generation Internet might become a part of what the Clinton administration calls a national information infrastructure.”

Biography:

Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: September 6, 1993

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Protocols

Name of publication: InfoWorld

Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Must Go Commercial – and Do it Right

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=fbe00d9cdb631f8056d913b468d64f5d&_docnum=17&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlzV&_md5=6b76879070e819f50558cc9a26cfd0c7

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty