The third-generation Internet must exploit ATM with cell-based protocols, operating systems, and applications.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for InfoWorld, ethernet originator Bob Metcalfe discusses making the most of ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode): ”The next generation should be capable of, among other things, fully exploiting Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM), serving individual users via ISDN, and billing for measured use. The Internet Society is working on ATM, sure, and is close to working out a way to carry Internet packets in ATM cells. This is a mandatory migration tool, but the theory of ATM is that short fixed-length cells are needed for voice and video applications. Carrying long variable-length packets through an ATM cell-switching fabric is, well, the worst of both worlds. I think the third-generation Internet must exploit ATM with cell-based protocols, operating systems, and applications.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: September 6, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Must Go Commercial – and Do it Right
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=fbe00d9cdb631f8056d913b468d64f5d&_docnum=17&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlzV&_md5=6b76879070e819f50558cc9a26cfd0c7
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty