The Society should be sure its new protocols support personal use, and they should exploit ISDN. ISDN won’t replace high-speed Internet trunks, but it will greatly improve personal Internet use from small offices and home offices. And ISDN has something else that the Internet needs: measured-usage billing.
Predictor: Metcalfe, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for InfoWorld, ethernet originator Bob Metcalfe discusses the need for individual subscriptions to the Internet, not just subscriptions for institutions. He writes: ”Another requirement for the third-generation Internet is that individuals, not just institutions, be allowed to subscribe. The Society should be sure its new protocols support personal use, and they should exploit ISDN. ISDN won’t replace high-speed Internet trunks, but it will greatly improve personal Internet use from small offices and home offices. And ISDN has something else that the Internet needs: measured-usage billing.”
Biography:Robert Metcalfe developed Ethernet technology at Xerox PARC in 1973 and later developed the networking company 3Comm. He is known for making the exaggerated 1995 prediction that due to an expected overload as people tried to connect, the Internet would “go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” He later jokingly ate his words, pureeing a paper copy of the article including this comment and swallowing it before a group of onlookers. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: September 6, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: InfoWorld
Title, headline, chapter name: Internet Must Go Commercial – and Do it Right
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=fbe00d9cdb631f8056d913b468d64f5d&_docnum=17&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlzV&_md5=6b76879070e819f50558cc9a26cfd0c7
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty