The impact of electronic commerce in the short term will be to cut costs, shrink development cycles, and streamline procurement. The long-term outlook is the atomization, or dis-integration, of vertical companies into ones offering core competencies in niche areas, outsourcing the rest. This will empower small businesses, niche publishing, and tiny markets and will lead to new information services, such as risk management and brokers to bring buyers and sellers together.
Predictor: Tenenbaum, Marty
Prediction, in context:Marty Tenenbaum made the following statement in an appearance at the first USENIX Workshop on Electronic Commerce (EC 95): ”The impact of electronic commerce in the short term will be to cut costs, shrink development cycles, and streamline procurement. The long-term outlook is the atomization, or dis-integration, of vertical companies into ones offering core competencies in niche areas, outsourcing the rest. This will empower small businesses, niche publishing, and tiny markets and will lead to new information services, such as risk management and brokers to bring buyers and sellers together.”
Biography:Jay “Marty” Tenenbaum was founder and CEO of Enterprise Integration Technologies, the company that pioneered security and payment for the Web. VeriFone acquired EIT in 1995. He was also the founder and first chairman of CommerceNet, the premier industry association for Internet commerce, with nearly 600 corporate members worldwide. Earlier in his career, he was a prominent AI researcher. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: July 11, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: E-commerce
Name of publication: Electronic Commerce Conference
Title, headline, chapter name: Digest of the First USENIX Workshop on Electronic Commerce (EC 95)
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.usenix.org/publications/library/proceedings/ec95/digest.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Wahl, Abigail