Gore wants to see universal, perhaps free, access to the networks by the end of the decade for public bodies such as schools, hospitals and libraries. Leading the expected money-makers is super-TV: thousands of channels of interactive, high-definition, Video-U-Like. Rheingold sees it otherwise. “That’s like saying, when they were getting ready to build the Interstate highways, that the roads were great news for the asphalt business. I mean, they were, but there are far more important effects … It’s a Trojan horse, with the nodes of the network growing in intelligence, like crystals growing in a supersaturated solution.” He expects consumers to use these digital feeds to make their own links, to talk to each other without the interference of a corporate agent, to establish their own virtual communities. But he recognizes the opposite might happen.
Predictor: Rheingold, Howard
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 New Scientist magazine article, Howard Rheingold is quoted commenting on the future of the Internet. The article says: ”In 1982, AT&T’s national phone monopoly was broken up: AT&T retained most of the long-distance services, and the ‘Baby Bells’ took the local telephone services. Cable TV operators followed, installing their own networks in cities. Telephone companies can’t broadcast TV; cable companies can’t offer phone services. Neither can make equipment. And TV companies may own cable broadcasters, but not the physical network that transmits the programs. [Vice President Al] Gore plans to tear all those walls down, opening the Baby Bells’ networks to any company, cable operators included, that wishes to offer phone services. In exchange, the Baby Bells will be allowed to provide cable TV down their existing lines. The idea is to ensure that, whatever the service, there are two or more companies competing to provide it, and any company that wants to offer a service over a network will be able to buy access to that network. In return, Gore wants to see universal, perhaps free, access to the networks by the end of the decade for public bodies such as schools, hospitals and libraries. Leading the expected money-makers is super-TV: thousands of channels of interactive, high-definition, Video-U-Like. Rheingold sees it otherwise. ‘That’s like saying, when they were getting ready to build the Interstate highways, that the roads were great news for the asphalt business. I mean, they were, but there are far more important effects.’ The deregulation marks a fundamental shift … Suddenly, the power of network access will become highly concentrated. ‘There’s a very small number of people controlling this giant machine,’ says Rheingold … But he doesn’t think those people will have it all their own way. In time, the real power could rest with the users as they become adept at manipulating the networks, helped by the powerful PCs and intelligent set-top boxes that will be the networks’ nodes. ‘It’s a Trojan horse,’ says Rheingold, ‘with the nodes of the network growing in intelligence, like crystals growing in a supersaturated solution.’ He expects consumers to use these digital feeds to make their own links, to talk to each other without the interference of a corporate agent, to establish their own virtual communities. But he recognizes the opposite might happen.”
Biography:Howard Rheingold, one of the first writers to illuminate the ideals and foibles of virtual communities, published a webzine called Electric Minds and wrote “Virtual Reality,” “Smart Mobs” and “Virtual Community.” He also was the editor of Whole Earth Review and the Millennium Whole Earth Catalog. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: New Scientist
Title, headline, chapter name: Fasten Your Seat Belts
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=6d2669c34384468cf911129a5eabc98f&_docnum=2&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlAl&_md5=78bd583c826eab2b4eb50ee2c807f3b7
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Smith, Ian T.