Whether it’s 6 million or 60 million, it’s still an opportunity, and the biggest opportunity is within the business community.
Predictor: Grant, Gail
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for The New York Times, Peter Lewis quotes John Quarterman, an expert on the measurement of Internet use. Lewis writes: ”Even as cyberspace is being touted as the hippest place to congregate since the original Woodstock, some experts now contend that estimates of the number of people actively using the Internet web of computer networks may be grossly exaggerated … Some network experts say the most commonly cited numbers – 20 million to 30 million users worldwide – may be many times too high. ‘Suppose there were really only two million or three million,’ said John S. Quarterman, a highly regarded Internet demographer in Austin, Texas. In an assessment potentially chilling to all the businesses betting millions of dollars on the premise that they can sell advertising, information and products to the Internet masses, Mr. Quarterman believes that his lower numbers may be a more accurate count of people who are active and reachable on the computer network … Whether it’s 6 million or 60 million, it’s still an opportunity, and the biggest opportunity is within the business community,’ said Gail Grant, who manages development of Internet services for the Digital Equipment Corporation in Palo Alto, California … Mr. Quarterman still predicts that the Internet will eventually achieve and surpass the size now widely credited to it. But the future isn’t here yet, he says … Using his estimate of 3.5 users per machine, the active Internet population would be about 3 million users, he said. Because only about half the users are in the United States, the Internet population domestically would be 1.5 million.”
Date of prediction: August 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Number of Users
Name of publication: New York Times
Title, headline, chapter name: Business Technology; Doubts Raised on Number of Internet Users
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=b292bc7af5b805f49f635ec4f635ec4f65b60ca...
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Scott, Carrie M.