Congestion is only ever a problem if bandwidth is standing still. I don’t think it’s too much of an overstatement to say that bandwidth is going to be increasing, overall, in scope – and decreasing in price – even faster than microprocessors are in terms of power over the next 10 years … In the very short term, the only bottleneck is really into the hub.
Predictor: Andreessen, Marc
Prediction, in context:Thom Stark conducted an interview with Marc Andreessen for his “Marc Andreessen Interview Page” in 1995. Here is an excerpt: STARK- “Over the course of the next couple of years, as the cost of both personal and corporate access to the Internet continues to decline and demand becomes ubiquitous, traffic congestion is going to become a major problem.” ANDREESSEN- “That’s a myth. I disagree with that completely.” STARK- “Really?” ANDREESSEN- “Well, congestion is a relative term, right? Congestion is only ever a problem if bandwidth is standing still. I don’t think it’s too much of an overstatement to say that bandwidth is going to be increasing, overall, in scope – and decreasing in price – even faster than microprocessors are in terms of power over the next 10 years.” STARK- “And over the short term?” ANDRESSEN- “In the very short term, the only bottleneck is really into the hub. I don’t even particularly think it’s even a problem inside companies. The reason I don’t think that is because, fundamentally, a company has to decide what it’s worth, and, if it brings enough added efficiency, and if it brings enough benefit to the business, then it’s certainly worth the investment in upgrading the network. It’s really not a congestion issue, per se. It’s just an issue of value. If the value is there, then that’s the way it’s going to be and the value’s going to be good, and, if the value’s not there, it’s not going to happen.”
Biography:Marc Andreessen worked with Eric Bina at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois in 1992, to develop a browser that would be usable on any computer, easy to use and graphically rich. In 1993, their browser, Mosaic, completely changed the face of the Internet Ð it allowed HTML “image” tags which make it so text and art can appear on the same page; it allowed easy text scrolling; and it introduced hyperlinks, allowing users to simply click on an area of the screen to go to another document on the Internet. In1994, Mosaic was developed and marketed; the product eventually was named Netscape. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: General
Title, headline, chapter name: The Marc Andreessen Interview Page
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://users.rcn.com/thomst/marca.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Allen, Patrick J.