Microtransactions need extremely low overheads (you can’t spend 32 cents collecting a 5-cent charge) and they are thus well suited for computers as long as a simple billing service is available. No credible billing service exists on the Internet today for microtransactions, but I predict the emergence of one within a very short amount of time.
Predictor: Nielsen, Jakob
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 column on online publishing, Jakob Nielsen writes:”Even though the cost of information will be driven down to almost zero, the authors will still have to receive some compensation for high-value information (my 1 percent disagreement). The solution involves microtransactions, where the user has to pay the information provider some small amount of money (e.g., 5 cents) for each information object used. Microtransactions need extremely low overheads (you can’t spend 32 cents collecting a 5-cent charge) and they are thus well suited for computers as long as a simple billing service is available. No credible billing service exists on the Internet today for microtransactions, but I predict the emergence of one within a very short amount of time.”
Biography:Jakob Nielsen labeled himself as an “Internet User Advocate” and built a reputation as a speaker and writer in that area. He co-founded the Nielsen Norman Group with Donald A. Norman (a former VP of research at Apple Computer). In the early 1990s, he was an engineer at Sun Microsystems. He invented and patented a number of Internet usability methods. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: August 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: Microtransactions
Name of publication: The Alert Box
Title, headline, chapter name: Directions for Online Publishing
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.useit.com/alertbox/9508.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Sampson, Melanie B.