In the future, only stupid servers will send the same file to high-end and low-end clients … We also need an economic model of information use, by which I refer not to payment to the information providers (we need that too), but to optimizing the use of resources … We need better hotlist management with advanced user interfaces for dealing with large amounts of information. Browsers should also support readwear, interest voting, group annotations and overview diagrams of the user’s navigational history/structure, possibly using a PAD-like infinitely zoomable canvas.
Predictor: Nielsen, Jakob
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 column on the next generation of Web browsers, Jakob Nielsen remarks:”The only certain trend on the Internet and WWW is that there are no trends on the Internet. It changes so fast that it is impossible to predict what will happen, and new trends may bloom and die overnight. Even so, the following changes ought to happen, so hopefully they will be the next trends: WWW browsers need the ability to handle streaming data types, such as video, and they should negotiate proper quality (e.g., frames per second) with the server depending on their experienced download bandwidth. In the future, only stupid servers will send the same file to high-end and low-end clients … We also need an economic model of information use, by which I refer not to payment to the information providers (we need that too), but to optimizing the use of resources. For example, the browser should negotiate with the server to download smaller bitmaps during peak load times, or the user could instruct it to spend at most 10 seconds to load a page. The page definition should be encoded to prioritize the information and provide alternative representations of large elements to enable the client/server solution to download as the most useful information that is possible under the given restrictions. It might also be possible to have the browser prefetch information during times of no user activity. Doing so would relate to the economic model of WWW usage: How much priority are you willing to place on fast browsing? If fast browsing is worth a lot to you, you should be willing to dedicate the resources to have your computer download a lot of stuff just in case you might request it later. Some of this prefetching might happen overnight (from servers you subscribe to) and other prefetching might happen by a breadth-first traversal of the outgoing hypertext links from your current page … Of course, we need better hotlist management with advanced user interfaces for dealing with large amounts of information. Browsers should also support readwear, interest voting, group annotations and overview diagrams of the user’s navigational history/structure, possibly using a PAD-like infinitely zoomable canvas.”
Biography:Jakob Nielsen labeled himself as an “Internet User Advocate” and built a reputation as a speaker and writer in that area. He co-founded the Nielsen Norman Group with Donald A. Norman (a former VP of research at Apple Computer). In the early 1990s, he was an engineer at Sun Microsystems. He invented and patented a number of Internet usability methods. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: July 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: The Alert Box
Title, headline, chapter name: Features for the Next Generation of Web Browsers
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.sun.com/950701/columns/alertbox/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Sampson, Melanie B.