The prediction, in brief:

If you were asked to pay 5 cents to read something online, would you? A quarter? It won’t seem like much to either party – but when you consider thousands of such transactions a day … Before searching for stuff or plunging into a new Web site, you will have to judge its worth according to your information budget. Perhaps it will lead to healthy moderation of online hours. More likely, it will be a punch in the stomach of a body that breathes information.

Predictor: Hall, Justin Allyn

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 online essay, Justin Hall makes the statement:”If you were asked to pay 5 cents to read something online, would you? A quarter? It won’t seem like much to either party – but when you consider thousands of such transactions a day… Some will stand on principle – information/the Internet should be free. But folks who throw themselves into content creation need to be supported, because Web pages take time to create, computers to live on, and phone lines to distribute. Digital cash will encourage and empower publishers – more people will publish for a buck. It will break the flow, though. Before searching for stuff or plunging into a new Web site, you will have to judge its worth according to your information budget. Perhaps it will lead to healthy moderation of online hours. More likely, it will be a punch in the stomach of a body that breathes information.”

Biography:

Justin Hall worked briefly at Wired in 1994, during a sabbatical from his college days at Swarthmore. He started his own irreverent e-zine, covering diverse topics and providing links all over the Web. He later worked for ZDTV and Games.com and as a freelance journalist. (Advocate/Voice of the People.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: Publishing

Name of publication: Links.net

Title, headline, chapter name: Digital Cash: Deft Donations or Surf-Stopping Tithing

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.links.net/dox/tech/digicash.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Goodrich, Barbara J.