There will be a consolidation. The user will pay the information provider directly, not the online service. The information provider will own the subscriber list, not the people who run the network. This is the model the information provider needs to be able to engage in commerce with the user. Then the information provider has the motivation to pay the Internet operator. Without it, what motivation is there to offer any services? The Internet operators act like telephone companies; in fact, the actual telephone companies will become the Internet operators.
Predictor: Clark, Jim
Prediction, in context:Mosaic co-founder Jim Clark made the following comment in a 1994 article in Network Computing Magazine: ”Today users are paying money all along the way. It’s a fragmented model of flow. Information providers also go to an access provider or server operator, paying this guy, who is in turn paying a carrier for access. There will be a consolidation. The user will pay the information provider directly, not the online service. The information provider will own the subscriber list, not the people who run the network. This is the model the information provider needs to be able to engage in commerce with the user. Then the information provider has the motivation to pay the Internet operator. Without it, what motivation is there to offer any services? The Internet operators act like telephone companies; in fact, the actual telephone companies will become the Internet operators.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Network Computing
Title, headline, chapter name: The Pattern in the Mosaic
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=6d004516cc820836cda7f66c5f136b21&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlzV&_md5=fa34f29c8a2e7cad415bce0edfdba183
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Allen, Patrick J.