It’s the beginning of the model for browsing for the print media. Then it will be converted to the electronic media. It will do audio; then you will be able to initiate a videoconference. Ultimately, I wonder if in some sense it won’t even become the interface for the telephone. Not that phones will go away, but your display will be on the wall. It will be the display for watching anything, even for computer stuff. We’ll have one billion instructions per second in a laptop soon, then in TVs. So what is a TV? It becomes a thing with digital processing, with a chip – programmable. How do you program it? However you want! This may take five, seven or 10 years … The PC and its derivatives will end up being the core of future consumer devices, and it is the de facto standard computer.
Predictor: Clark, Jim
Prediction, in context:Mosaic co-founder Jim Clark made the following comment in a 1994 article in Network Computing Magazine: ”The Mosaic paradigm says that today there’s a mindset to use static print media. Companies use newspapers, magazines, brochures and so on – all of this class of stuff that we print. That will be transmitted electronically and appear on the screen. That’s what Mosaic is about in its first phase, not broadband, switched-channel surfing. It’s a paradigm for doing browsing. It’s the beginning of the model for browsing for the print media. Then it will be converted to the electronic media. It will do audio; then you will be able to initiate a videoconference. Ultimately, I wonder if in some sense it won’t even become the interface for the telephone. Not that phones will go away, but your display will be on the wall. It will be the display for watching anything, even for computer stuff. We’ll have one billion instructions per second in a laptop soon, then in TVs. So what is a TV? It becomes a thing with digital processing, with a chip – programmable. How do you program it? However you want! This may take five, seven or 10 years. So the issue is, ‘What is the software model?’ I spent my last life (at Silicon Graphics) working with a software model that would fit inside today’s TV model. I abandoned that. The PC and its derivatives will end up being the core of future consumer devices, and it is the de facto standard computer.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Internet Appliances
Name of publication: Network Computing
Title, headline, chapter name: The Pattern in the Mosaic
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=6d004516cc820836cda7f66c5f136b21&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlzV&_md5=fa34f29c8a2e7cad415bce0edfdba183
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Allen, Patrick J.