In the next 10 years, somebody will figure out how to charge for information over the Net, so you won’t get things necessarily for free. That will have several good effects, including a way to pay authors for their work. And because of the economic incentive, it will become easier to filter out the good from the bad.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Maclean’s magazine in Canada, Joe Chidley interviews Clifford Stoll, author of the book “Silicon Snake Oil,” a cautionary look at the impact of computers and the Internet. Chidley quotes Stoll: ”It’s not like the Internet is worthless – it’s just that there’s not much there. It’s a low-grade source of information. There’s a lot of ore and not many nuggets. And with every year that goes by, I find fewer and fewer nuggets and a lot more chaff. In the next 10 years, somebody will figure out how to charge for information over the Net, so you won’t get things necessarily for free. That will have several good effects, including a way to pay authors for their work. And because of the economic incentive, it will become easier to filter out the good from the bad.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: May 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Maclean's
Title, headline, chapter name: Reality Check
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=d15e4c74b880ed5d1f33e1bbedb03299&_docnum=11&wchp=dGLbVtb-lSlAl&_md5=8062a3a05284c1f1dda10f1c652355b1
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.