MUAs are definitely the future … Graphics are seen as being the key to bringing MUAs to a wider audience; sound, too, if possible.
Predictor: Bartle, Richard
Prediction, in context:In a 1990 report commisioned by British Telecom plc., Richard Bartle describes the future of MUAs, MUDs, chatlines and gaming: ”What Does the Future Hold? MUAs are fun, rewarding to play, and compulsive. From a software author’s point of view, they’re a dream: the software is not made public, so there is no danger of piracy; people pay for them continually, they don’t just make a one-off payment; larger computers acting as a host mean that more sophisticated games can be written than work on home micros. A pity BT takes such a huge percentage of the revenue. Nevertheless, MUAs are definitely the future. But what exactly is that future? The present trend in MUA design is for games that allow players to add rooms etc. to it themselves … To seasoned players, the older MUAs look very dated. If members of the general public were given a wider access to these games, then after a while they’d come to feel the same way too. Unless work starts soon on the ‘next wave’ of MUAs, there’ll be nothing there to take their place… Graphics are seen as being the key to bringing MUAs to a wider audience; sound, too, if possible … Although the UK has a significant lead in MUAs, it’ll disappear in a couple of years once the U.S. academics get working on it in earnest, unless the UK industry is given support. If not, it’ll be brushed aside by the U.S. and Japanese giants, particularly purveyors of arcade games and simulators who have suddenly become aware of ‘virtual reality’ and may implement such systems leap-frogging present-day MUAs completely … Single-player games that are modified merely by giving them more players will probably have some considerable appeal. This will be enough to satisfy their backers. However, shared virtual reality is where the big bucks lie hidden, and the first company to make a top-notch graphical MUA available to a large user base will clean up.”
Biography:Richard Bartle of the University of Essex developed the first MUD, known as MUD1, with Roy Trubshaw in 1979. MUDs and MOOs grew in popularity and had participants from around the world. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: December 1, 1990
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: MOOs/MUDs/B-Boards/Newsgroups
Name of publication: British Telecom plc.
Title, headline, chapter name: What Does the Future Hold?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.usyd.edu.au/su/social/papers/bartle.txt
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Bizzell, Natalie