The prediction, in brief:

The only software-driven system that has any chance of greater than 50 percent penetration in U.S. households by the end of this century (a mere 5.7 years away) is the personal computer. And it will probably be an Intel/Microsoft-based PC. There’s no chance that digital interactive set-top cable television boxes will reach that penetration in this decade.

Predictor: Stahlman, Mark

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Red Herring, Mark Stahlman, the president of New Media Associates, shares his take on the Internet and the future of new media. Stahlman writes:”The only software-driven system that has any chance of greater than 50 percent penetration in U.S. households by the end of this century (a mere 5.7 years away) is the personal computer. And it will probably be an Intel/Microsoft-based PC. There’s no chance that digital interactive set-top cable television boxes will reach that penetration in this decade. There’s no chance that any of the current or next generation game machines will be popular enough to edge out PCs … For the cable industry, channel expansion through digital compression is a viable business concept. Interactive television is not … On the other hand, PCs are a sure thing. The combination of continuing price wars and new performance options will make PCs easier to operate and easier to afford … PCs are about to become much more personal … But this competition will only accelerate the development of much more human-centered PC products.”

Biography:

Mark Stahlman was the president of the New York-based research and financial services firm New Media Associates in the 1990s. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)

Date of prediction: March 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Internet Appliances

Name of publication: Red Herring

Title, headline, chapter name: New Media – What’s Real & What’s Not

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue09/media.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Taylor, Kellen L.