The prediction, in brief:

All networks aren’t created equal. Bandwidth must be configured to be useful, and the switched topology of voice telephony is fundamentally different from the broadband/broadcast character of cable television. These systems … will not converge … There really is a man behind the curtain, Dorothy. Pay no attention to the convergence pyrotechnics. There’s a lot at stake, and it just might be your digital future.

Predictor: Stahlman, Mark

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Mark Stahlman writes:”It is strongly in the interest of both cable and telephone companies to exaggerate their plans for interactive systems deployment. After all, they are constantly asking for regulatory relief. Moreover, it is strongly in both their interests to exaggerate the competitive threat posed by the other guy. Local telephone access no longer will be a monopoly if the cable company starts delivering dial tone. And re-regulated cable would like nothing better than to gethe FCC off its back by pointing to the bone-crunching threat of video dial tone … All networks aren’t created equal. Bandwidth must be configured to be useful, and the switched topology of voice telephony is fundamentally different from the broadband/broadcast character of cable television. These systems … will not converge … There really is a man behind the curtain, Dorothy. Pay no attention to the convergence pyrotechnics. There’s a lot at stake, and it just might be your digital future.”

Biography:

Mark Stahlman was the president of the New York-based research and financial services firm New Media Associates in the 1990s. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)

Date of prediction: March 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Bandwidth

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: Backlash: The Infobahn Is a Big, Fat Joke

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.03/infobahn_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Taylor, Kellen L.