No streets need to be dug up, no wires pulled through ducts and ceilings … It is now plausible to expect that within this decade we will see a chip that can send full-motion color video down an ordinary analog telephone line. And the chip will sell at a price comparable to a few months’ subscription to cable TV.
Predictor: Huber, Peter
Prediction, in context:In a 1992 article for Forbes magazine, Peter Huber, a senior fellow of the Manhattan Institute, makes the following statement: ”Look to the future. The telephone network is going digital, and that will boost the data-carrying capacity of existing wires by about a factor of ten. The ‘existing wires” part is important: The key network changes required for the coming world of the ‘integrated services digital network’ are made in electronics situated in the central office and on customer premises. No streets need to be dug up, no wires pulled through ducts and ceilings … As George Gilder recently wrote … the telephone, television and computer are rapidly merging into a single, very intelligent box – a telecomputer … It is now plausible to expect that within this decade we will see a chip that can send full-motion color video down an ordinary analog telephone line. And the chip will sell at a price comparable to a few months’ subscription to cable TV.”
Biography:Peter Huber, a lawyer with degrees from MIT and Harvard, was a 1990s expert in telecommunications. (Legislator/Politician/Lawyer.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: Internet Telephony
Name of publication: Forbes
Title, headline, chapter name: Score One for AT&T
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web14.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+1+ln+en%2Dus+sid+21373427%2D696C%2D4C22%2D8950%2D24281E7EBCC9%40sessionmgr5+D494&_us=bs+Peter++Huber+ds+Peter++Huber+dstb+KS+hd+0+hs+0+or+Date+ri+KAAACBWB00018850+sm+KS+so+b+ss+SO+3B20&cf=1&fn=41&rn=50
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Johnson, Kathleen