The prediction, in brief:

Information will never become “too cheap to meter.” … Far from being free and plentiful, infotainment products will be expensive – economic actors must create scarcity to reap profits high enough to justify their investments.

Predictor: Monberg, John

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Computer-Mediated Communication magazine, John Monberg, a graduate student at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, writes:”Much is made of the technical characteristics of ‘unlimited bandwidth’ that will allow access to unimaginable volumes of data. Reference is often made, almost in the manner of a ritual mantra, to the ‘Library of Congress on the desktop.’ Despite these technical characteristics, information will never become ‘too cheap to meter.’ Due to the scale and capital intensiveness of the information infrastructure, charge-back mechanisms will be devised so that investments will payoff, or investments will not be made in the first place. Far from being free and plentiful, ‘infotainment’ products will be expensive – economic actors must create scarcity to reap profits high enough to justify their investments. Already the rapid increase of new users on the Internet is creating gridlock. This effect is exacerbated by new commercial enterprises which provide gateways into the Internet, increasing the number of users but not correspondingly increasing the amount of or capacity of desirable information. The ‘commons’ that can exist for a smaller community whose members uphold norms of reciprocity and fairness is devastated by the throng of new users not socialized into ‘Net Culture.'”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Cost/Pricing

Name of publication: Computer-Mediated Communication Magazine

Title, headline, chapter name: Welcome to the Emerald City! Please Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1994/nov/emerald.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Walsh, Meghan