We already have one product category, encyclopedias, that is selling better in hypermedia form than in paper form. I would expect a few more such product categories to appear, but I would expect most product categories to be dominated by traditional media in the short term. One product category that is a prime candidate for initial multimedia dominance is movie guides.
Predictor: Nielsen, Jakob
Prediction, in context:Technology development and design guru Jakob Nielsen shares his views in “The Future of Hypertext,” in 1995. He writes:”We already have one product category, encyclopedias, that is selling better in hypermedia form than in paper form. I would expect a few more such product categories to appear, but I would expect most product categories to be dominated by traditional media in the short term. One product category that is a prime candidate for initial multimedia dominance is movie guides. The moving images and the ease of updating make this domain a natural for a combination of CD-ROM and online publishing, and several large studios have indeed started to distribute trailers for their films through America Online and other services. Microsoft Cinemania was one of the first hypermedia movie guides, and I would expect many more to appear.”
Biography:Jakob Nielsen labeled himself as an “Internet User Advocate” and built a reputation as a speaker and writer in that area. He co-founded the Nielsen Norman Group with Donald A. Norman (a former VP of research at Apple Computer). In the early 1990s, he was an engineer at Sun Microsystems. He invented and patented a number of Internet usability methods. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: February 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Publishing
Name of publication: Multimedia and Hypertext: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: The Future of Hypertext
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.useit.com/papers/hypertextfuture.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry