Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Digital credentials would be both easier for individuals to obtain and to show and cheaper for organizations to issue and to authenticate. People would no longer need to fill out long and revealing forms. Instead their representatives would convince organizations that they meet particular requirements without disclosing any more than the simple fact of qualification. Because such credentials reveal no unnecessary information, people would be willing to use them even in contexts where they would not willingly show identification … They may also acquire negative credentials, which they would prefer to conceal: felony convictions, license suspensions or statements of pending bankruptcy. In many cases, individuals will give organizations the right to inflict negative credentials on them in return for some service.

Predictor: Chaum, David

Prediction, in context:

In a 1992 article for Scientific American, e-cash entrepreneur David Chaum writes: ”In order to be of use, a digital credential must serve the same function as a paper-based credential such as a driver’s license or a credit report. It must convince someone that the person attached to it stands in a particular relation to some issuing authority … In addition to answering just the right question and being more reliable than paper ones, digital credentials would be both easier for individuals to obtain and to show and cheaper for organizations to issue and to authenticate. People would no longer need to fill out long and revealing forms. Instead their representatives would convince organizations that they meet particular requirements without disclosing any more than the simple fact of qualification. Because such credentials reveal no unnecessary information, people would be willing to use them even in contexts where they would not willingly show identification, thus enhancing security and giving the organization more useful data than it would otherwise acquire. They may also acquire negative credentials, which they would prefer to conceal: felony convictions, license suspensions or statements of pending bankruptcy. In many cases, individuals will give organizations the right to inflict negative credentials on them in return for some service. Under some circumstances, however, an organization might insist that an observer demonstrate its physical presence. Otherwise, for example, any number of people might be able to gain access to nontransferable credentials (perhaps a health club membership) by using representatives connected by concealed communications links to another representative containing the desired credential. Moreover, the observer must carry out this persuasion while its input and output are under the control of the representative that contains it. Organizations can also issue credentials using methods that depend on cryptography alone rather than on observers. The concealment of purely cryptographic negative credentials could be detected by the same kinds of techniques that detect double spending of electronic bank notes. And a combination of these cryptographic methods with observers would offer accountability after the fact even if the observer chip were somehow compromised.”

Biography:

David Chaum was the founder of DigiCash in the early 1990s. He was the inventor of cryptographic protocols that allowed him to create a company whose mission was to change the world through the introduction of anonymous digital money technology. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1992

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Anonymity/Personal Identity

Name of publication: Scientific American

Title, headline, chapter name: Achieving Electronic Privacy

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://ntrg.cs.tcd.ie/mepeirce/Project/Chaum/sciam.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Canizaro, Lauren