Technology may settle down fairly quickly because people just demand it; they can’t stand all the change. Or it may settle down later because it evolves, it comes to a point where people are kind of comfortable and a number of things hold still and that’s fine. Or it may simply not settle down at all. And then we’re forced to just become used to always surfing a constant wave; it’s never calm. And that would be a very interesting thing for civilization because we’ve never done that before … The great thing about the future under these circumstances is that it is fundamentally unknowable, and that’s both terrifying and very attractive.
Predictor: Brand, Stewart
Prediction, in context:In an interview that aired on PBS-TV in 1995, Internet pioneer Stewart Brand said: ”I think technology may settle down fairly quickly because people just demand it; they can’t stand all the change. Or it may settle down later because it evolves, it comes to a point where people are kind of comfortable and a number of things hold still and that’s fine. Or it may simply not settle down at all. And then we’re forced to just become used to always surfing a constant wave; it’s never calm. And that would be a very interesting thing for civilization because we’ve never done that before. We’ve always had the experience of a new technology always settling down so cars are all alike, airplanes are all alike and television was always the same for about 30 years and you can do business in that way. But now, they don’t hold still that long and it may be that it’s becoming smaller and smaller in time – of how long you can count on something staying the same. The great thing about the future under these circumstances is that it is fundamentally unknowable, and that’s both terrifying and very attractive.”
Biography:Stewart Brand founded Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link (WELL) in 1985 with Larry Brilliant. This was one of the first and most intellectually active online “communities.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: June 15, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: PBS-TV Interview in San Francisco
Title, headline, chapter name: High Stakes in Cyberspace
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/cyberspace/brand.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Bradshaw, Lindsay