Making faster communications lines and enlarging modem pools won’t help – adding more users will only slow things down. The networks will be further clogged by flashy services like online audio, video and graphical user interfaces like the World Wide Web’s Mosaic.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on the Internet’s future implications: ”As digital technology develops, we can expect cheap, easy-to-use systems that quickly do our work for us. And since only bits and bytes move, the data highway will be the cheapest way to ship information around the world. At least such is the myth. In reality, during business hours, the Internet is painfully slow … Making faster communications lines and enlarging modem pools won’t help – adding more users will only slow things down. The networks will be further clogged by flashy services like online audio, video and graphical user interfaces like the World Wide Web’s Mosaic.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil
Title, headline, chapter name: An Amalgam of Popular Fictions About the Internet, Including Brief Trips to China and The City of No Illusions
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 15, 16
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.