ATM and fiber-optics will cause the industry to restructure. We’ll have new entrants. All the financial models will change. For example, it will become increasingly strange to charge for data communications on the basis of time.
Predictor: Myhrvold, Nathan
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Network Computing, Tim Haight interviews Microsoft’s Nathan Myhrvold. Haight writes: ”‘We’re in a phase of the communications industry similar to the phase of the computer industry when the microprocessor appeared,’ Myhrvold says. ‘ATM and fiber-optics will cause the industry to restructure. We’ll have new entrants. All the financial models will change. For example, it will become increasingly strange to charge for data communications on the basis of time.’ Most important trend: The use of public narrowband data networks today and the promise of greater bandwidth in these networks tomorrow. Most disturbing trend: The possibility that legal and social decisions will set back the development of these public data networks.”
Biography:Nathan Myhrvold worked at Microsoft Corporation as chief technology officer in the 1990s. Myhrvold was responsible for the Advanced Technology and Research Group, which had a budget of over $2 billion per year. Earlier, he was group vice president of Applications and Content, which included a number of Microsoft divisions, including Desktop Applications, Consumer, Research and Microsoft On Line Systems. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: September 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Network Computing
Title, headline, chapter name: Network Computing
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m92720e236045eac68bb019de4858751a
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Ritz, Nathan M.