Anyone can post messages to the Net. Practically everyone does. The resulting cacaphony drowns out serious discussion. Online debates of tough issues are often polarized by messages taking extreme positions. It’s a great medium for trivia and hobbies, but not the place for reasoned, reflective judgment.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on the Internet’s future implications: ”The myth holds that our networks are the ultimate in democracy – all voices can be heard. Bytes have no race, gender, age, or religion. What effects will we see when the government comes online? Computer access will let us send messages to government officials, and get quick responses from them. We’ll know what’s happening in the back rooms of our legislatures. We could read committees’ reports the same day they’re written and get fast responses to our queries. The myth grows: Elections will change, too. Politicians will be available through electronic forums, with less emphasis on expensive television ads. They’ll upload position papers to the net, and reply to e-mail from their constituents. Eventually, we’ll see electronic voting – a way to further democratic participation, with polls giving near-instant feedback for representatives. The reality? Anyone can post messages to the Net. Practically everyone does. The resulting cacaphony drowns out serious discussion. Online debates of tough issues are often polarized by messages taking extreme positions. It’s a great medium for trivia and hobbies, but not the place for reasoned, reflective judgment.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Democracy
Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil
Title, headline, chapter name: An Amalgam of Popular Fictions About the Internet, Including Brief Trips to China and The City of No Illusions
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 31-32
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.