Our particular concern is that well-meaning government administrators, responsible for control of the radio spectrum space, are making seemingly innocent decisions that could have disastrous unforeseen consequences. It could even cause our networks of the future to be unnecessarily expensive and less capable than if a wider appreciation of what’s really happening was better understood.
Predictor: Baran, Paul
Prediction, in context:Paul Baran made the following statement in a 1994 speech on 21st century communications: ”Our particular concern is that well-meaning government administrators, responsible for control of the radio spectrum space, are making seemingly innocent decisions that could have disastrous unforeseen consequences. It could even cause our networks of the future to be unnecessarily expensive and less capable than if a wider appreciation of what’s really happening was better understood. Of course, any negative consequences of such a result are totally at variance with the objectives sought by those responsible for telecommunication policy. What appears to be missing from the deliberations is an understanding of some basic technological issues.”
Biography:Paul Baran joined RAND in 1959 and investigated development of survivable communication networks capable of allowing the U.S. to reorganise and respond after a nuclear attack. By 1964, he developed the field of packet-switching networks, as outlined in 11 comprehensive papers titled “On Distributed Communications Networks.” This work eventually convinced U.S. officials that development of wide-area digital computer networks should be a priority. Others also say they were working on packet switching in this era, but Baran and Donald Davies were generally given the credit at this point in the 1990s. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: November 9, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Keynote Talk Transcript, 8th Annual Conference on Next Generation Networks Washington, D.C.
Title, headline, chapter name: Visions of the 21st Century Communications: Is the Shortage of Radio Spectrum for Broadband Networks of the Future a Self-Made Problem?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/GII_NII/Wireless_cellular_radio/false_scarcity_baran_cngn94.transcript
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Beckett, Angela