Our schools face serious problems, including overcrowded classrooms, teacher incompetence and a lack of security. Local education budgets hardly cover salaries, books and paper. Computers address none of these problems. They’re expensive, quickly become obsolete, and drain scarce capital budgets. Yet school administrators want them desperately. What’s wrong with this picture? … Today’s standard connections, Ethernet and coaxial cable, will be obsolete within a decade.
Predictor: Stoll, Clifford
Prediction, in context:In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on the Internet’s future implications for education:”Our schools face serious problems, including overcrowded classrooms, teacher incompetence and a lack of security. Local education budgets hardly cover salaries, books and paper. Computers address none of these problems. They’re expensive, quickly become obsolete, and drain scarce capital budgets. Yet school administrators want them desperately. What’s wrong with this picture? … Wiring classrooms isn’t cheap. The California Department of Education estimates that it would cost almost a half billion dollars to provide telecommunications into every classroom in the state. And that doesn’t include adding power outlets. Moreover, today’s standard connections, Ethernet and coaxial cable, will be obsolete within a decade.”
Biography:Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: E-learning
Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil
Title, headline, chapter name: On Classrooms, With and Without Computers; Some Basic Astrophysics for the Intrepid
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 127, 128
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.