We don’t need to build a system using only a single medium. We can use combinations of media … It will be radio for just that portion where it’s a pain to carry signals by physical wires and then as quickly as possible, move over to a wired medium or fiber or coax and then go the rest of the way by electrons or photons. It is a matter of mixing, combining the two to get the advantage of both and minimize the disadvantage of each.
Predictor: Baran, Paul
Prediction, in context:Paul Baran made the following statement in the question-and-answer session following a 1994 speech he made on 21st century communications: ”You can go high-data rates very short distances; or lower data rates further distances. Remember that we don’t need to build a system using only a single medium. We can use combinations of media. So in this case, it will be radio for just that portion where it’s a pain to carry signals by physical wires and then as quickly as possible, move over to a wired medium or fiber or coax and then go the rest of the way by electrons or photons. It is a matter of mixing, combining the two to get the advantage of both and minimize the disadvantage of each.”
Biography:Paul Baran joined RAND in 1959 and investigated development of survivable communication networks capable of allowing the U.S. to reorganise and respond after a nuclear attack. By 1964, he developed the field of packet-switching networks, as outlined in 11 comprehensive papers titled “On Distributed Communications Networks.” This work eventually convinced U.S. officials that development of wide-area digital computer networks should be a priority. Others also say they were working on packet switching in this era, but Baran and Donald Davies were generally given the credit at this point in the 1990s. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: November 9, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Keynote Talk Transcript, 8th Annual Conference on Next Generation Networks Washington, D.C.
Title, headline, chapter name: Visions of the 21st Century Communications: Is the Shortage of Radio Spectrum for Broadband Networks of the Future a Self-Made Problem?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/GII_NII/Wireless_cellular_radio/false_scarcity_baran_cngn94.transcript
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Beckett, Angela