The prediction, in brief:

Digital cash sure doesn’t lend itself to the kind of simple explanation that engenders human trust. It certainly won’t make inroads until it works without fraud. Once digital cash comes online – if it ever does – the technofolks will adopt it and chatter about the wonders of technology. Meanwhile, the rest of the world will drop a check in the mail or cash on the counter. Simple, secure, direct, and trustworthy.

Predictor: Stoll, Clifford

Prediction, in context:

In his 1995 book “Silicon Snake Oil,” writer Clifford Stoll shares his take on the Internet’s future:”Someday, digital cash will let us exchange goods via e-mail. Complete with encryption, authentication, and zero-knowledge proofs of identity, this will let us make one-time transactions that are as good as dollars. The system will know that we’ve been authorized to make the transactions, it’ll confirm that the sellers are willing to sell the goods, it’ll assign special codes to prevent our accounts from being debited twice, and – bong – the transactions happen. All with total digital security. At least that’s what I’m told … Digital cash sure doesn’t lend itself to the kind of simple explanation that engenders human trust. It certainly won’t make inroads until it works without fraud. Once digital cash comes online – if it ever does – the technofolks will adopt it and chatter about the wonders of technology. Meanwhile, the rest of the world will drop a check in the mail or cash on the counter. Simple, secure, direct, and trustworthy.”

Biography:

Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: E-cash

Name of publication: Silicon Snake Oil

Title, headline, chapter name: An Inquiry into Mail, an Experiment with the Post Office, and a Comment on Cryptography

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 164

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.