Computers will someday compress entire libraries onto chips or discs and, thereby, open vast vistas of information to almost anyone. The trouble with this is arithmetic and common sense. A school library with 2,000 books can theoretically serve 2,000 readers simultaneously. A school library with one computer terminal that can call up 200,000 books can serve only one reader at a time. The computer creates a bottleneck. Sure, the library can buy more computers, but they’re costlier and bulkier than books. Finally, there’s common sense: Do most people really need access to, say, the entire collection of the New York Public Library?
Predictor: Samuelson, Robert
Prediction, in context:In a 1992 essay for Newsweek magazine, columnist Robert Samuelson posits some disadvantages to the techno-future. He writes:”Let me introduce you to retarded technology … it encourages us to do things that don’t need doing at all. It has made waste respectable, elaborate, alluring and even fun … Computers will someday compress entire libraries onto chips or discs and, thereby, open vast vistas of information to almost anyone. The trouble with this is arithmetic and common sense. A school library with 2,000 books can theoretically serve 2,000 readers simultaneously. A school library with one computer terminal that can call up 200,000 books can serve only one reader at a time. The computer creates a bottleneck. Sure, the library can buy more computers, but they’re costlier and bulkier than books. Finally, there’s common sense: Do most people really need access to, say, the entire collection of the New York Public Library? … The survival of stupid technology is ordained by ego and money. New technologies often require a hefty investment. Once investments are made, they can’t be easily unmade. To do so would be embarrassing. Old and inexpensive ways of doing things are eliminated to help pay for new and expensive methods. Retarded technology becomes institutionalized and permanent.”
Biography:Robert Samuelson , a regular columnist for Newsweek, also wrote for the Washington Post in the 1990s. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: July 1, 1992
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Libraries/Databases
Name of publication: Newsweek
Title, headline, chapter name: Technology In Reverse: We Are Finding Costly and Complex Ways to Do What Was Once Simple and Inexpensive
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web16.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+0+ln+en%2Dus+sid+1CE74732%2DC742%2D4AD3%2DB343%2D16CC9B067F55%40Sessionmgr4%2DSessionmgr3+CDB2&_us=bs+%22Technology++in++Reverse%22+cst+0%3B1%3B2+ds+%22Technology++in++Reverse%22+dstb+KS+hd+0+hs+%2D1+or+Date+ri+KAAACBYB00269628+sl+0+sm+KS+so+phrase+ss+SO+CB63&fn=1&rn=8
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stevens, Shawn