Network-based education has the benefits of mass production and mass distribution. It can also work in a tutorial mode so that it can deliver answers to a student’s questions. It combines the best post-industrial production methods with the capacity to deliver education in th best Socratic tradition.
Predictor: Strassmann, Paul
Prediction, in context:In his 1990 book “The Business Value of Computers,” Paul Strassmann writes:”Public education for adults is the prime candidate for value-enhancement through information technology. It is an employment-protected, capital rich and tax-exempt industry. Its operating costs are a fraction of its full costs because of tax subsidies, endowment and free land. Product quality is unknown except when management rates itself. Its labor force is not evaluated for the quality of services delivered to clients. Its capacity utilization is less than 30 percent. The average teaching hours are less than 10 percent of the total paid hours, because of a large nonteaching staff, holidays and long vacations. Its employees have the highest rate of paid absenteeism of any industry, while scheduled working hours are the lowest. The damage this business can inflict on its clients, by leaving them uneducated, may be permanent. The next decade will see major reforms occuring in this business. A larger share of revenues will come directly from its paying clients. This will shift the focus of free-market competition. Customers will insist on choosing from a diversity of competing suppliers. To deliver a high-quality product, the producers will need the means for distributing their services in national and even global markets. This will force much of the educational product to take advantage of network-based systems. Network-based education has the benefits of mass production and mass distribution. It can also work in a tutorial mode so that it can deliver answers to a student’s questions. It combines the best post-industrial production methods with the capacity to deliver education in th best Socratic tradition.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1990
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: E-learning
Name of publication: The Business Value of Computers
Title, headline, chapter name: Strategic Investments
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 182, 183
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Vellucci, Amanda