An optimist’s view of the next decade is that by some happy accident, the cable and telephone industries will be persuaded by a logic of self-interest to build broadband networks consistent with Jeffersonian ideals, even if they are unaware of or uninterested in the full range of democratic goals. They will come to see that networks which permit the greatest diversity of content and services – be it video programming, computer software, or whatever can be dreamt up by the mass media and individual users – will create the largest sustainable business opportunities … If adopted as a guiding principle, openness, as exemplified by the personal computer and the Internet, can be a driver of prosperity and diversity in any new market.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Electronic Frontier Foundation co-founder Mitchell Kapor writes: ”An optimist’s view of the next decade is that by some happy accident, the cable and telephone industries will be persuaded by a logic of self-interest to build broadband networks consistent with Jeffersonian ideals, even if they are unaware of or uninterested in the full range of democratic goals. They will come to see that networks which permit the greatest diversity of content and services – be it video programming, computer software, or whatever can be dreamt up by the mass media and individual users – will create the largest sustainable business opportunities. Furthermore, if the communications industry is responsive to key ideas about openness (in technical architecture, industry structure, and access to networks), then the chances of Jeffersonian vision winning are even greater. If adopted as a guiding principle, openness, as exemplified by the personal computer and the Internet, can be a driver of prosperity and diversity in any new market. A pessimist would insist that the owners and operators of broadband networks will never voluntarily give up control over the terms of access, use, and content. Bringing the Net to everyone is too important a matter to be left to the private market, the argument continues, so the government therefore must either take control of the process, or, in the extreme view, build the Net itself. By mechanism and by policy, networks will be much more closed than open, the pessimist would say. Old ways of thinking die hard, particularly when they were weaned by legally enforced monopolies. Content will be supplied only by a carefully chosen set of providers, barriers to entry will be created for everyone else. Programming will still seek the least common denominator, and the population will be divided by income into information haves and have-nots. This scenario owes more to Huxley’s Brave New World than to Jefferson’s vision of democracy. The future lies somewhere between the optimist’s and the pessimist’s views. Optimism, combined with vigilance and a commitment to seek government intervention for redress of private enterprise’s failures, is the best prescription for coping with the NII’s uncertain future … Before the government commits to any policy, it must first arm itself with an understanding of the situation at hand.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Open Access
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Where is the Digital Highway Really Heading? The Case for a Jeffersonian Information Policy
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Misc/Publications/Mitch_Kapor/nii_kapor_eff_wired.article
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Nolan, Diana