Suppose that Congress succeeds in deregulating cable so that it essentially becomes a government-supported monopoly that can set its own prices, and then the MSN gets delivered over cable. Then MSN becomes the network that people would have to register on whenever they put up a Web page or something like that … communication is logged, and there’s a corporate “Clipper Chip” kind of scenario working. [If somebody complained of an obscene message, the authorities would] track down the person that sent it. [Then Americans would start asking,] “Why is the government subsidizing this horrible Internet thing.” … The Internet then turns into this fragmentary, low-bandwidth kind of thing and gradually fades away.
Predictor: Lanier, Jaron
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Electronic Engineering Times, Larry Lange talks with virtual-reality entrepreneur Jaron Lanier. Lange writes: ”The Internet’s transition to a vast commercial enterprise implies the imposition of structure on a system whose anarchic nature has been a primary source of its appeal. Virtual-reality pioneer Jaron Lanier, like many longtime denizens of the Internet, enjoys its free-wheeling atmosphere and fears that the National Information Infrastructure could enervate the Net rather than energize it. ‘What could happen is what one Microsoft marketing person talked about a few months ago, which is the notion of the Internet’s being shut down in favor of something that’s more “in control.” That would be an aesthetic and cultural catastrophe,’ Lanier said, ‘because I think in the world of culture, the Web is the most precious thing going right now.’ But that’s only the beginning of the potential disaster, according to Lanier. It proceeds with MSN’s being widely adapted by business and, by various means, eventually being subsidized by the government. How could that happen? ‘Suppose that Congress succeeds in deregulating cable so that it essentially becomes a government-supported monopoly that can set its own prices, and then the MSN gets delivered over cable,’ he said. ‘Then MSN becomes the network that people would have to register on whenever they put up a Web page or something like that.’ … In his nightmare vision, ‘communication is logged, and there’s a corporate “Clipper Chip” kind of scenario working.’ If somebody complained of an obscene message, the authorities would ‘track down the person that sent it.’ … Then … Americans would start asking ‘Why is the government subsidizing this horrible Internet thing …’ universities would be under political pressure not to participate in the Internet, and as they withdrew there would be no one to run the critical connecting links any more. The backbone of the Internet would be cut off from the rest of the networked world. ‘The Internet then turns into this fragmentary, low-bandwidth kind of thing and gradually fades away,’ Lanier said. ‘I’m not predicting that will happen – I don’t believe that it’s possible to predict the future, but I think it’s a plausible scenario.'”
Biography:Jaron Lanier was a pioneer of virtual reality and founder and former CEO of VPL. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: September 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Role of Govt./Industry
Name of publication: Electronic Engineering Times
Title, headline, chapter name: The ‘Nightmare Scenario’
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=e41899dd868358e2c12567ae35dc0370&_docnum=6&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlAl&_md5=db9f3530ced518f1dd258c02d16ef8af
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Lightburn, Ellie