The information highway will be able to sort consumers according to much finer distinctions [than today’s television and print publications], and to deliver (to) each a different stream of advertising … Data can be gathered and disseminated without violating anyone’s privacy because the interactive network will be able to use information about consumers to route advertising without revealing which specific households received it … Some of the billions of dollars now spent annually on media advertising, and on the printing and postage of direct-mail advertising, will instead be divvied up among consumers who agree to watch or read ads sent directly to them as messages.
Predictor: Gates, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for The Financial Times, Michael Thompson-Noel covers predictions made by Microsoft CEO Bill Gates. Thompson-Noel writes:”Globally, the advertising business is going well, though its present-day health may look like very flat beer from the vantage point of 2010 if the grandiose predictions of Microsoft boss Bill Gates come true … The jacket of Gates’ just-published book “The Road Ahead” describes it as an authoritative, provoking and readable guide to the information highway … Of special interest to the marketing fraternity are Gates’ views on the future of advertising … Industry after industry will be changed by the advent of the information highway, says Gates – he prefers the phrase ‘information marketplace’ – as the digital revolution ushers in what he calls low-friction, low-cost capitalism, in which market information will be plentiful and transaction costs low: ‘a shopper’s heaven.’ ‘The information highway,’ says Gates, ‘will be able to sort consumers according to much finer distinctions [than today’s television and print publications], and to deliver (to) each a different stream of advertising.’ This will profit everyone: viewers, advertisers and online media owners. ‘Data can be gathered and disseminated without violating anyone’s privacy because the interactive network will be able to use information about consumers to route advertising without revealing which specific households received it.’ … On the highway, the principal information-selection techniques will include spatial navigation, hyperlinks, and agents as well as filters. The aim of this software will be to help us plumb seemingly depthless oceans of information without suffering the bends. For example, most people will block e-mail ads except those they really want to see. To try and capture our attention, advertisers may offer us small sums of money to look at their ads. ‘In effect,’ says Gates, ‘some of the billions of dollars now spent annually on media advertising, and on the printing and postage of direct-mail advertising, will instead be divvied up among consumers who agree to watch or read ads sent directly to them as messages.'”
Biography:Bill Gates, the most influential technology entrepreneur of the late 20th century, was the primary author of the prediction-packed 1995 book “The Road Ahead” and is the founder and CEO of Microsoft Corporation. (Entrepreneur/Business Leader.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Advertising/PR
Name of publication: Financial Times
Title, headline, chapter name: Media Futures: When Video Springtime Sets the Glitter Palace Aglow
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=db9b3d804c81bd451d1b59079c0e5b96
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Heiskell, Abbey K.