I think movies are not [the prime future use for expanded communications bandwidth]. I never thought so, and I still don’t think so, because people don’t interact with movies. On the other hand, a shopping catalog is it … The most important use is going to be to transact something over distances – basically communications applications. That’s the most important application that information technology has had.
Predictor: Grove, Andy
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for BusinessWeek, Geoff Lewis interviews Intel CEO Andy Grove. Lewis asks, “What will the bandwidth be used for?” Grove replies: ”I think movies are not [the prime future use for expanded communications bandwidth]. I never thought so, and I still don’t think so, because people don’t interact with movies. On the other hand, a shopping catalog is it. A salesperson that I can interact with to place the order or ask a question is it. I suddenly get new features from my computing infrastructure. The only feature I get [with movies] is I get it when I want it: ‘I want “Casablanca” and I want it now.’ Big deal. As compared to me being able to buy ski equipment, talking to an expert real-time, browsing in the catalog, asking questions, making buying decisions. You don’t like that example? Fine, maybe it is coming in commercial sales. People are taking different approaches, and they will course-correct. Whoever wins is going to have the advantage of being down the road longer and further than the others. But the rest of them are going to chase after them and compete… I think the most important use is going to be to transact something over distances – basically communications applications. That’s the most important application that information technology has had.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: E-commerce
Name of publication: BusinessWeek
Title, headline, chapter name: The World According To Andy Grove
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=6e350aa48e93e63465292e9b2da5b22e&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlzV&_md5=26368617b22bafcf9b58beff28792bce
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garber, Adam