NII users would fill out different E-forms to, say, order goods, settle transactions, or find people and services. Over time, these E-forms would grow in kind and number and would constitute the common currency, or language, of computer communication via the NII. In time, the typed text on the NII’s [National Information Infrastructure’s] early E-forms might be replaced with speech. To buy a jacket, you might answer voice prompts asking what color, size and material you want.
Predictor: Dertouzos, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a 1991 article for Technology Review, MIT researcher/administrator Michael Dertouzos writes: ”Beyond providing flexible transport services, the NII [National Information Infrastructure] would offer certain common communication conventions. One way of doing this would be through on-screen electronic forms, or E-forms, with universally understood meanings. NII users would fill out different E-forms to, say, order goods, settle transactions, or find people and services. Over time, these E-forms would grow in kind and number and would constitute the common currency, or language, of computer communication via the NII. In time, the typed text on the NII’s [National Information Infrastructure’s] early E-forms might be replaced with speech. To buy a jacket, you might answer voice prompts asking what color, size and material you want. Current speech-recognition systems in the laboratory can understand such responses spoken naturally by different speakers using a small vocabulary (under 300 words) and a domain of discourse that is sufficiently limited to narrow down the range of possible answers. Such systems could be implemented in rudimentary form within the next five years. Spoken E-forms could bridge people speaking different languages; a form filled in spoken English could order a product from a French or German factory. Later, the prompts might disappear altogether, and we would be able to speak to the computer, more or less as if we were addressing a human order-taker. Farther in the future, and as more machine vison improves, we might even be able to fill in forms visually – for example, by pointing the home-computer video camera at a product in need of repair.”
Biography:Michael Dertouzos was director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science and the author of “The Unfinished Revolution.” He led a project intended to make computers adapt to people. He outlined a comprehensive proposal for a national information “infrastructure” in a 1991 article for Technology Review. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1991
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Technology Review
Title, headline, chapter name: Building the Information Marketplace
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web2.infortrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/599/939/33335311w2/purl=rcl
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Dube, Kristin