The prediction, in brief:

Most of these intiatives call for services to be centrally controlled by a country’s government national phone company. In my view, this centralized infrastructure approach is as misguided and doomed to stagnation as the centralized economies of the USSR and Eastern Europe – and largely for the same reasons … In my view, a model that is far more likely to succeed in the United States and elsewhere, however, is one where buyers and sellers of information services compete freely, much as producers and consumers of conventional goods and services do today.

Predictor: Dertouzos, Michael

Prediction, in context:

In a 1991 article for Technology Review, MIT researcher/administrator Michael Dertouzos writes about the world’s information infrastructure initiatives:”Most of these intiatives call for services to be centrally controlled by a country’s government national phone company. In my view, this centralized infrastructure approach is as misguided and doomed to stagnation as the centralized economies of the USSR and Eastern Europe – and largely for the same reasons … In my view, a model that is far more likely to succeed in the United States and elsewhere, however, is one where buyers and sellers of information services compete freely, much as producers and consumers of conventional goods and services do today.”

Biography:

Michael Dertouzos was director of the MIT Laboratory for Computer Science and the author of “The Unfinished Revolution.” He led a project intended to make computers adapt to people. He outlined a comprehensive proposal for a national information “infrastructure” in a 1991 article for Technology Review. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1991

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Open Access

Name of publication: Technology Review

Title, headline, chapter name: Building the Information Marketplace

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web3.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/237/651/57953601w3/purl=rc1_EAIM_0_A9329382&dyn=5!xrn_1_0_A9329382?sw_aep=ncliveec

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney