Revenues from telephones and televisions are currently at an all-time peak. But the industries organized around these two machines will not survive the century … As the telephone network becomes a computer network, it will have to change, root and branch. All the assumptions of telephony will have to give way to radically different assumptions. Telephony will die … TV ignores the reality that people are not inherently couch potatoes; given a chance, they talk back and interact. People have little in common except their prurient interests and morbid fears and anxieties. Necessarily aiming its fare at this lowest-common-denominator target, television gets worse and worse every year. Television is a tool of tyrants. Its overthrow will be a major force for freedom and individuality, culture and morality. That overthrow is at hand.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In an excerpt from his 1994 book “Life After Television,” George Gilder addresses the future:”Revenues from telephones and televisions are currently at an all-time peak. But the industries organized around these two machines will not survive the century … Computer networks transmit digital data at a minimal rate of some 10 million bits per second, going up soon to 155 million bits per second. On such a digital flood, 64 kilobits per second of voice can ride as an imperceptible trickle … As the telephone network becomes a computer network, it will have to change, root and branch. All the assumptions of telephony will have to give way to radically different assumptions. Telephony will die … Television faces a similar problem … TV ignores the reality that people are not inherently couch potatoes; given a chance, they talk back and interact. People have little in common except their prurient interests and morbid fears and anxieties. Necessarily aiming its fare at this lowest-common-denominator target, television gets worse and worse every year. Television is a tool of tyrants. Its overthrow will be a major force for freedom and individuality, culture and morality. That overthrow is at hand.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Life After Television
Title, headline, chapter name: Life After Television
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.moliere.byu.edu/digital/life_tv.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney