Over the last five years, the share of computers in the U.S. linked to networks rose from under 10 percent to over 60 percent. During the next five years, the capacity of those connections can rise at least a thousandfold, allowing PCs to summon digital films and files of news, art, and multimedia from around the world. The television cable can become a computer connection. The personal computer can rule American culture as decisively as broadcast TV has ruled it for the last 40 years.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for National Review, George Gilder, a fellow of the Discovery Institute in Seattle and author of “Life After Television,” expounds on his views of future communications. He writes:”Over the last five years, the share of computers in the U.S. linked to networks rose from under 10 percent to over 60 percent. During the next five years, the capacity of those connections can rise at least a thousandfold, allowing PCs to summon digital films and files of news, art, and multimedia from around the world. The television cable can become a computer connection. The personal computer can rule American culture as decisively as broadcast TV has ruled it for the last 40 years.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: National Review
Title, headline, chapter name: Net Gains: Information, Technology & Culture; Breaking the Box
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 37-43
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney