This page contains only the anonymous written responses from Internet experts and stakeholders who answered this question in the 2014 Pew Research/Elon University Future of the Internet Survey. Some survey respondents chose to identify themselves; a majority remained anonymous. We share most of the anonymous respondents’ written answers here. Workplaces are attributed for the purpose of indicating a level of expertise; statements reflect personal views. To read the full report, click the image below.
Anonymous responses by those who answered this survey question
Internet experts and highly engaged netizens participated in answering an eight-question survey fielded by Elon University and the Pew Internet Project from late November 2013 through early January 2014.
This survey question asked respondents to share their answer to the following query:
Self-driving cars, intelligent digital agents that can act for you, and robots are advancing rapidly. Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI) applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025? Describe your expectation about the degree to which robots, digital agents, and AI tools will have disrupted white collar and blue collar jobs by 2025 and the social consequences emerging from that.
Among the key themes emerging from 1,896 respondents’ answers were: – Advances in technology may displace certain types of work, but historically they have been a net creator of jobs. – We will adapt to these changes by inventing entirely new types of work, and by taking advantage of uniquely human capabilities. – Technology will free us from day-to-day drudgery, and allow us to define our relationship with “work” in a more positive and socially beneficial way. – Ultimately, we as a society control our own destiny through the choices we make. – Automation has thus far impacted mostly blue-collar employment; the coming wave of innovation threatens to upend white-collar work as well. – Certain highly-skilled workers will succeed wildly in this new environment—but far more may be displaced into lower-paying service industry jobs at best, or permanent unemployment at worst. – Our educational system is not adequately preparing us for work of the future, and our political and economic institutions are not prepared to handle this future.
To read full official survey analysis, please click here.
To read credited responses to the report, please click here.
Following is a large sample including a majority of the responses from survey participants who chose to remain anonymous in making their remarks in the survey; some are the longer versions of expert responses that are contained in the official survey report. More than half of respondents chose not to take credit for their elaboration on the question (for-credit responses are published on a separate page). They were asked: “Will networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI) applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025?”
A distinguished engineer working in networking for Dell wrote, Yes. “It’s a given that computers will get more powerful and be able to perform more and more intelligent tasks. This is going to create more unemployment and I’m not sure how all this gets resolved. I see this as less of a problem for folks who are educated, more of a problem for less capable people. Every area of life will be impacted from the way we learn to the way we are entertained.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Robots will increasingly decide based on algorithmic rules, while humans will be required to implement these decisions and field complaints based on the robots’ decisions. AI agents will be integral to most spheres of life: government, education, leisure, work. But we won’t recognise them as ‘robots.’”
A PhD who works in developing ICT policy for social development and democracy responded, No. “I think this is one of the technological power fantasies.”
A manager of creative services and branding for a worldwide non-profit replied, No. “No new technology ever displaces more jobs than it creates, in the long term.”
A network scientist for BBN Technologies wrote, Yes. “To some degree, this is already happening. In terms of the large-scale, mass-produced economy, the utility of low-skill human workers is rapidly diminishing, as many blue-collar jobs (e.g., in manufacturing) and white-collar jobs (e.g., processing insurance paperwork) can be handled much more cheaply by automated systems. And we can already see some hints of reaction to this trend in the current economy: Entrepreneurially-minded unemployed and underemployed people are taking advantages of sites like Etsy and TaskRabbit to market quintessentially human skills. And in response, there is increasing demand for ‘artisanal’ or ‘hand-crafted’ products, that were made by a human. In the long run, this trend will actually push toward the re-localization and re-humanization of the economy, with the 19th- and 20th-century economies of scale exploited where they make sense (cheap, identical, disposable goods), and human-oriented techniques (both older and newer) increasingly accounting for goods / services that are valuable, customized, or long-lasting.”
The director of innovation for a multi-country company aiming to tap into the gigabit Internet wrote, Yes. “I am participating in several international projects focused on developing enabling technology, with millions in public funding, to develop agents and to bring about factories of the future (including hybrid factories with a mix of robots and blue-collar workers). I’m also participating in two international projects with major cities as partners, looking at ways of introducing enabling technologies such as Internet of Things. And I live in a city that has been chosen as a test site for replacement of some bus routes by AI-based vehicles. All of this leads me to set the job-displacement date earlier, 2020. And between 2020 and 2025 I expect a lot of social unrest, because insufficient attention is being paid to the needs of people displaced by technology. I am in Washington, DC, right now, developing bids for funding to use AI and robotics to develop Knowledge as a Service (KaaS) on a large scale, for example to augment the capacities and productivity of today’s knowledge workers. This will lead to a Winner Take All society, in which such workers can earn 10 or 20 times their current salary. These changes will be long established in richer districts which contain a high proportion of early adopters (the likely first users of Amazon’s imagined drone-based delivery service). Many of those citizens currently pay for part-time or full-time cleaners, gardeners, handy-people. Most of those local jobs will go (to judge from the people I know who already have robot cleaners and robot mowers). I am very, very sad for the people affected.”
A technologist working in Internet policy predicted, Yes. “Robots can build other robots, it’s that simple. I don’t think it will be as much a part of society that people regularly interact with. Telepresence (e.g., the person you talk to at a drive-through is actually many time zones away) will be a much bigger noticeable shift than direct interactions with these systems. There will be a few serious ‘wake-up’ moments where automated systems inadvertently (or through techno-terrorism) cause severe events that deplete economic value (and possibly even loss of life) to such an extent that we proceed more carefully with automated systems.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Anything that can be automated will be automated (eventually). The challenge is providing the necessary platform for people to pursue what they can most uniquely contribute—awakening the passion of people, providing a platform for necessary risk-taking to foster continuing innovation. Even venture capitalists know that nine of 10 investments will ‘fail’ but the success of the 10th will more than compensate for the other innovations. Thus like Switzerland’s forthcoming vote, perhaps we will be wise enough to provide a guaranteed minimum income as the platform. The question is the need to scale learning and creativity over the need to scale efficiency. Everyone will have some form of smart device as an augmentation/externalization of their memory and as a means of enabling the generation/assemblage of knowledge networks—that is the means of work, contribution, social involvement.”
A general manager for Microsoft replied, No. “It is clear that advances in automation will eliminate some jobs, but it will create others as well as free up some resources that could be applied to other pursuits. I do not foresee a situation where we will have successfully automated humans out of work. On the contrary, I see a situation where we have greater need for higher-skilled workers who are comfortable with using and creating technologies. The risk that that we will not have properly prepared future workers for the new jobs that are being created, and we will not successfully retrain workers whose skills are being displaced. Both of these will create social pressures in society that policy-makers will need to recognize and address. Robotics and AI will have a broader role in daily life. We are already seeing trends in home automation and maintenance, for example, that if extrapolated to 2025 at the same development rate will create substantially different experiences in a future-modern home—such as automatic energy conservation, personal climate management, etc. Our commercial production and distribution infrastructures are likely to change substantially as well—with more just-in-time production, and the maker movement will have substantially transformed by 2025.”
A freelance technology writer and editor for leading US publications responded, Yes. “The answer here should really be ‘could.’ What we call AI isn’t true intelligence, but embedded implementations of brute computing force. And again, a decade isn’t that long. But the financial incentives of automation are going to be irresistible. Right now I don’t see a one-to-one replacement for the manual activities that robots might replace, though there will likely be growing demand for the skills needed to support these combined hardware-and-software systems. Well, my Roomba is like a family pet already, and I’m getting a smart thermostat for my mother for Christmas. We have computers in our cars, our pacemakers, our refrigerators, our factories. In ten-plus years that technology will be embedded in many more objects, from clothing and glasses to packaging and pets, and it’ll all be linked to the Web, generating and expanding the Internet-of-Things. AI is likely to have an easily identifiable impact in law enforcement and healthcare. In our day-to-day lives it’ll be more subtle, but not by much. Things like smart grocery carts will be commonplace, and I think we might see the beginnings of a personal drone marketplace.”
A political scientist who studies cyberculture and social movements replied, No. “Robots, AI and digital agents will take over some jobs, but new jobs are always created to deal with the technology. Jobs just shift. There will be more and more automated solutions to performing menial tasks—cleaning, snow shoveling, grass mowing, etc.”
An online community management consultant wrote, Yes. “One curious possibility is to consider that assorted technologies could be applied to the task of making job opportunities. That sounds possible, but it is hard to imagine a change in our economic, charitable or governmental systems that could fund such a task. It’s nobody’s problem, and everyone’s.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “AI applications will ‘displace’ some jobs, but create others. If every new technological innovation (industrialization, the shift to factory lines, the shift to automation) displaced jobs, without replacement, I suspect we all wouldn’t be working so many long hours…. ;-) I imagine this shift to AI will result in a similar phenomenon.”
A self-employed writer replied, Yes. “They will at least displace more good jobs than they create; that has been the story of the past decade.”
A postdoctoral fellow and researcher in Informatics responded, No. “My impression is that future AI technologies will mostly displace white-collars jobs, rather than manual jobs like restaurant servers etc. The automation revolution in heavy industry is a thing of the past, and besides developing nations, I do not expect that to cause much displacement in (the currently) developed countries. A wild guess is that we might see AI enter into the management floor of firms by that decade. Anything having to do with information search and organization will be most probably offloaded to some form intelligent agents. Domotics [domestic robotics] is very likely to become more mainstream, more integrated, and thus less visible.”
A law professor at Georgetown University and former US Federal Trade Commission official wrote, No. “There is value to having machines making decisions and taking actions now taken by humans. But AI is the new tool that may free humans from certain labor burdens—driving in traffic; lifting heavy objects; doing difficult computational functions—but in exchange it will give humans more time for even more productive labor. Our economy is adapting slowly. But every substantial technological breakthrough has been accompanied by a short term drop in labor demand, then followed, as new applications developed, by periods of robust economic and job growth.”
A Syracuse University professor and associate dean for research wrote, Yes. “Robots and AI are moving beyond simple rules into framed judgment spaces. There will be several spectacular failures (to give voice to the dystopian seers) and so many subtle impacts. I see them in public transport, long-distance driving, traffic routing, and car-to-car interactions. I also see them moving into the built environment through post-market sensor networks reflecting energy monitoring, maintenance for household appliances, and supporting more distributed education. My expectation is that much of medicine will be in the midst of a transformation based on better sensors tied to more powerful analytics. Home life will be more digitally assisted, medicine and health care will better leverage sensors and analytics, cars and traffic will be more digitally enabled. I am uncertain about how education will change (probably too close to it) but expect that we’ll be using smarter ICT to expand the range of connected education.”
A principal engineer at Cisco wrote, No. “While the nature of work will change, there will be plenty of work. We don’t have many people making wagon wheels today, but we don’t attribute that to overall unemployment. AI will be there just the same way it is here today. Robotics will be more pervasive.”
Another principal engineer for Cisco wrote, Yes. “Self-driving cars are simply the visible proof points; other economic factors like the cost of oil will have greater effect on driving habits. But self-driving vehicles for routine transport and delivery services will make it feasible to shift to electric vehicles (since recharging policy can be programmed). Robotics will add a new twist to the global redistribution of manufacturing; if a robot can operate as cheaply in Detroit as in Shenzhen, why pay to ship materials and finished goods around the world? The social consequences will be driven by chronic underemployment and how we choose to manage it economically. Traditional unemployment schemes will not suffice. Some kind of negative-income-tax-based system may be needed to ensure that everyone has enough to live on. Nevertheless a huge social and economic gulf will open up between those who work (even occasionally), and those who never work, and this will have dramatic political consequences.”
The CFO for a major Internet company responded, No. “Twelve years is not enough time for the advances to displace a disproportionate share of jobs. There will be more jobs created to program the AI and technology than are displaced by it. Depending on your definition of AI, it already is part of the ordinary landscape (data-driven learning algorithms feeding recommendation and advertising, etc.). Same with robotics. So it will be just a continued integration.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Does anyone in 2013 believe the ‘technology will save us’ 1950s mantra? A gyrocopter in every back yard? Food pills? Seriously, automation is to save corporations money, period. We’re taunted with insulting ‘self-driving cars’ instead of a culture that allows, erm, not having to bein a car. how about better ‘high tech’ public transportation that’s not only for those that can afford it? The ‘growth’ need of publically-traded corporations will be the downfall of us all. That 19th century idea of growth is insane. It drives the ‘need’ for ever-increasing exploitation, likely, increasingly affecting our lives but invisibly, on the other side of security walls, physical and otherwise. Automation is to the advantage of its wielders, exclusively, and they certainly do not have individual humans’ interests in mind.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Predicting Job loss is hard to and there are always multiple sides to the question, what jobs become ‘obsolete’ and what jobs get ‘created’ in the process of automation of an factory. Then there is the side effects, if the technology is not created would all the jobs be destroyed because the jobs moved to lower wage country. You ask for net job loss and that is hard to measure as that is a global question. Moving textile jobs from North Carolina destroyed jobs there, but created more jobs in country X as there was less automation. Hopefully AI will remain hidden, robots on the other hand will become more visible, either as something as simple as single task robot like the vacuum cleaner, or self-driving auto. Multifunction robots like house cleaner (including cleaning the sink), home care robots etc. are harder to predict
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “All of these technologies shift the burden of cost for what used to be public infrastructure onto the individual. The autonomous car is a bandaid for the lack of public transit infrastructure in the United States. AIs are largely focused on making sense of the massive amounts of data that we now collect, store, re-store and manipulate. None of these are job creating activities. This, on the other hand will be extensive. AI, robotics, and sensors will become increasingly ubiquitous. These devices will largely be focused on the ‘data-fication’ of the real/daily life. ‘The cloud’ will increasingly monitor and mine this data, for what I’m sure only Silicon Valley will attempt to monetize.”
A professor of technoculture at the University of California-Davis predicted, Yes. “Unless we move away from profit-driven models, the elimination of labor is still a goal. Personal control over environments will weaken.”
A top engineer for a major US computer technology company and longtime Internet architect wrote, No. “More machines increase productivity, and make for a richer society. People in ‘displaced’ areas will find other ways to contribute to society. Image-recognition, and natural-language understanding are already emerging.”
An executive in a consulting firm advising on change management replied, No. “Technology will continue to disrupt the white-collar and blue-collar jobs of today. Knowing that, white-collar and blue-collar employees need to be advocating for upskilling and training into future jobs rather than defending their right to continue to do jobs which can now be done by technology. The social consequences of that could be very positive—an overall increase in the education and skill of the entire workforce. The social consequences of a Luddite approach would be, as they have historically been, creation of a new and particularly pitiful class of ‘have-nots”. But it will be less from lack of opportunity than from lack of attention to how fast the world is changing and how little it cares if we individually approve or not. I don’t know the answer to this question. However, I personally am very much looking forward to the self-driving cars so I can get some reading done and turn my commute back into a productive time-block. (Of course, if Dallas were to get some really good mass-transit, that would be an even better way to accomplish this outcome.)”
A professor at Swarthmore College responded, Yes. “It’s already happened. In white-collar jobs most potently. We will shortly discover the limits of digitization and expert AI, and there will be new jobs that involve the supervision, design, and deployment of digital agents and expert AI/robotics systems, but the net will be lost jobs. However, it will be difficult to separate this loss from the impact of the extensive reorganization of most corporations and many other organizations under pressure from financial capital and the overall acceleration of globalization. To some extent, digitization functions as an alibi or cover story for the more extensive gutting out of the economy by a very small plutocratic elite. Any white-collar task that involved a kind of brute-force processing of information—junior partners and clerks in law firms reading massive piles of documents in a discovery process, for example—will be done by digital agents or through extensive digital mediation. Most code will be built out of large legacy code libraries that are too big for humans to directly author or edit, making much of the digital world more and more like an ecosystem or landscape that we have to adapt to rather than directly control. Small swarm robotics with cheap component or individual machines will be more important than highly engineered and expensive robots, particularly in warfare and other applications where the loss of a human being would involve too much legal, financial or political liability.”
A self-employed science and technology writer, researcher and consultant wrote, Yes. “We are already seeing this, for instance, in self check-out lanes in grocery stores. There will be an increase in the need for careers for the very young and the very old but they are not likely to make up the difference—and they are low-paid. Expect more AI use in agriculture, manufacturing, and service. I expect there will need to be a ‘human, please’ option on most commercial and transport interfaces as there are always unpredictable elements. Also expect consumers will demand tech-free places like restaurants where they can interact with each other. Perhaps hobbies in the arts will increase as well—making music for example.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “History would indicate that networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI) applications and robotic devices will continue to advance in a forward direction. This will, ultimately, require a greater degree of population control than is currently in place. This question is too broad to respond to it accurately. Changes likely by 2025? Social interface. Geographical speech patterns. Planning for modes of transportation to offset the diminishing supply of non-renewable energy. Humans’ desire to remain ‘free’ and unencumbered in their sphere of influence will remain relatively unchanged. However, in their pursuit of this ‘freedom’ they will unwittingly buy in to the networked, automated, artificial intelligence applications and robotic devices ‘required’ by the puppet masters, politicians and corporations, to maintain the CONTROL they have established.”
A technical director for a major US university wrote, No. “The labor market will continue movement away from repetitive, inefficient and high-risk tasks to human interaction-intensive service sectors (hospitality, sales, food and beverage, entertainment) and jobs too situation specific to complete without a human interface. AI will impact but not replace skilled ‘trades’ (construction, plumbing, electrical, etc.), police, fire protection, social workers, health care delivery (aides, lab techs), mortuary services, animal husbandry, farming, fishing, mining, and natural resource workers. AI will introduce new efficiencies, new diagnostic and decision tools, better quality control and provide adaptive training and remote monitoring. Education and training will be transformed through the use of simulators, skills assessment, adaptive learning, standardization. Remote surgery, for example, will become far more common. Remote sensing of health conditions will be used to for delivery of medications will become routine. Energy use will be reduced through ‘smart’ vehicles, smart homes and offices. We’ll likely see reduced demand for workers to commute to a central office location and possibly a decrease in the need for business travel. Virtually every information/data/education sector will be impacted. And as environment ‘costs becomes better understood we may see new transportation and city planning philosophies/policies emerge. We’ll still need skilled workers in health care delivery, construction trades, legal services, public policy, primary education, professional education, security, basic science, and research, etc. AI will likely widen the divide between the developed first world and the rest of the world.”
An assistant professor at a US university responded, Yes. “AI will displace more jobs in specific areas, but create more jobs in other areas. As in previous decades, with different technologies, there is always a shift in the workforce to meet the needs of the new fields. This may require a more-educated workforce, and that means that we’ll need to have more people who can train that workforce. However, it should be noted that we already have robotics in so many areas that most of the public doesn’t yet realize, including: online ‘bots; those that ascend to space and descend to the ocean floors; those that construct automobiles, etc. This is already shifting the ways that we interact with so many different elements in every day life. The other day I heard about a robotic coffee shop that would do away with baristas, and I can see the appeal of that. The public will need to decide where robotics and AI are necessary and where they damage our interactions, jobs, and economy. We must think critically about these at every step in order to attend to the needs of all rather than the select few who make corporate and governmental decisions.”
The head of the department of communication at a top US university wrote, No. “Different jobs will be created, and human agents will slowly dedicate themselves to professions that require different sets of skills, not yet accessible to a variety of programmed/programmable agents. The nature and the meaning of work will change. Subsequently, the balance between work-life will shift, and the distance between the two constructs will diminish.”
A collaboration strategist responded, Yes. “This will depend a great deal on how consistently standards are adopted as ‘sources of truth,’ e.g. ontologies, formal taxonomies, semantics in general. There is currently a lot of emphasis placed on math deficits of students but the ability to work in formal and informal logic and the ability to perform analysis is the bigger hurdle. We are seeing development in home appliances, healthcare, and automobiles.”
A government executive wrote, Yes. “The net effect will be negative—more jobs lost than created. The social consequences would be actually positive overall. We will renegotiate the social order’s expectation of the optimal mix between leisure and work. We will have less work and more leisure. We can afford this realignment because of the gained productivity.”
The director of a leading global foresight organization wrote, Yes. “This does not mean all jobs will be displaced, and interpersonal, communications-based, aesthetic- and value-judgment-oriented tasks will hold their old position as a haven for human workers. Driver assistance, security command and control, health monitoring and assessment, heavy industry, and elderly services will all see significant AI participation.”
A professor of communication at the University of Southern California and well-known researcher of Internet uses and users replied, Yes. “I worry that these technological developments will further erode opportunities for working-class labor in the United States and around the world, further destabilizing the employment situation for many people and further exaggerating the divides between haves and have-nots. I don’t think smashing the machines has ever worked as a response to such developments, but this points all the more urgently to the needs of governments and citizens to more directly address inequalities in economic opportunity.”
A leader working to implement the National Health Portal of India wrote, Yes. “While it may be a boon for developed nations, where the growth rates are negative, it will be less useful and more threatening in developing nations. Jobs will increase but more skilled ones rather than unskilled ones. Transport and Factories will be most affected.”
A research scientist for Google wrote, Yes. “I expect there to be rapid erosion in food-service and clerical jobs.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “By 2050 yes—but not in 11 years. Developments will come by 2025 in asset tracking, factories and delivery systems, and mining and exploration.”
An assistant professor at Radboud University Nijmegen in the Netherlands wrote, No. “Robots and computers have been around for quite some time. It has not displaced work. Work forces are just allocated in other sectors, i.e. in the long run. In the short run it’ll displace jobs, not in the long run. Robots, computers, AI will particularly enable us to do more and more complex work, not the same work with less effort. A good example is Big Data. We have it because we now can utilize it. It’ll be prominent, I think. AI will be prominent but less observable because integrated in consumer products (household, cars, the Internet of Things). Robots will be most dominant and observable in health care (homes for the elderly or maybe at people’s homes as well, academic hospitals).”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “The research and development, construction, and deployment of these tools will create jobs but their reliability will probably not dispense with human drivers or operators. I understand that a drone requires considerably more operating staff than a fighter plane. They will be generalised for specific vertical applications but ecological and other societal concerns may well dampen demand.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “They will replace jobs where a human touch is no longer needed. That said, such processes have occurred before. In developing economies, the hope is that better education and training will prepare this generation for the 2025’s job skills. Such technologies will change the parts of our lives that are technology-dependent: work, communication, entertainment, etc. They may replace or merge with existing technologies. I don’t expect areas that are not as much technology-dependent to be affected much.”
A program director focusing on ICT standards policy, Internet governance and other issues wrote, “Robotics will create a new set of industries and business models that generate more jobs than robotics might ‘consume.’ It will still be limited. Although we can already do some pretty cool stuff, there will still be plenty of kinks and bugs and vulnerabilities that need to be resolved before market confidence will be widespread.”
The CEO of a software technology company and active participant in Internet standards development, responded, No. “The availability of advanced ‘smart’ tools have generally enabled white-collar workers to do more, rather than taking away from what they do. It is unlikely that factory automation will be materially different to today and hence blue-collar jobs will be unaffected—unless manufacturing and service industries need to increase automation due to factors such as unionization. Hopefully one of the areas where this will have most impact is the medical field—this is an area where there are high costs, a shortage of highly skilled people and a growing demand for advanced and complex services.”
The COO for a consulting/contract research organization commented, Yes. “Robotic advances will enhance some and eliminate many white-collar jobs unless the luddites triumph. Most blue-collar jobs that can be eliminated already have been, maybe not truck drivers. People will perform jobs they can perform better than machines. Many services will be automated or enhanced by AI; government will continue to lag the rest of society.”
The vice president of research and consumer media for a research and analysis firm responded, No. “This is the wrong question. We’re talking about a dynamic system, not a zero-sum game. I don’t think it will be possible to know whether AI created or destroyed jobs, and there will be passionate advocates on either side of the issue.”
The CEO of a mid-sized company that has applied for and will operate many new top-level domains, Yes. “There will be very few consequences, if any, in the developing world. In the first world, blue-collar jobs will be more affected than white-collar jobs. On the other hand, things that are now out of reach for anyone but the rich, e.g., someone to pick up your kids from school, will become cheap and more readily available. They will be far more noticeable in the US and Western Europe and the more-developed parts of Asia. They will be invisible in poor parts of the world.”
The principal software architect for a large Internet company wrote, No. “Robots will displace blue-collar jobs but not white-collar. AI will be a useful tool but humans will still make decisions. Menial tasks like house cleaning will be aided by robots.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Jobs and opportunities will be shifted and created in other areas, however, may be more demanding on proper education and specialisation. Herein also lies a danger of getting too specialised and losing any coherent views on economy and society as a whole, e.g. only seeing the trees instead of the forest.”
A senior lecturer at the University of California wrote, Yes. “They already have! This hardly seems like something we have to guess about. Personally I can’t wait for self-driving cars. My car today is already a better driver than I am, and as I get older it’ll be really important to being able to live my life that I be able to get around safely. On the other hand, it’d be even better to have decent public transportation.”
A post-doctoral researcher wrote, Yes. “More and more jobs will be displaced by robotic innovations, yes. There still will be some jobs that human intelligence would be most vital. Drones have a huge potential for services. I can see drones used for delivery, for instance, or for traffic control. I can’t conceive in what other ways these technologies could be used, but sky is the limit. David Levy thinks that we will be having sex with and marrying robots in the near future. Although right now this seems unfathomable, this is something to consider. The drone scenario seems much more likely, however.”
A self-employed software designer and policy researcher wrote, Yes. “The avenues for gainful employment seem to be narrowing. These kinds of advances may create more employment opportunities in certain sectors, but my sense is that we are increasingly limiting the diversity of employment opportunities. One area where I predict significant progress in 10 years is the use of more plausible assistive technologies and automated solutions, particularly in addressing perceived needs of older populations. Apart from that, they’re already part of the ordinary landscape, depending on whether you mean commercial applications such as in manufacturing, resource extraction, or the medical field or in the consumer/retail world. They are already well on their way even in the latter, depending on where you live and your socio-economic status. You’re talking about a little over 10 years from now—on the consumer level I don’t see these types of innovations infiltrating far beyond the fairly privileged worlds they’ve already conquered. That said, people without that much income are already beginning to prioritize technology wants over fundamental needs—particularly if they have kids—with personal deficit-spending lifestyles now the norm.”
The leader of learning and performance systems at Pennsylvania State University responded, No. “Robotic devices are very useful and an exciting new direction, but they must be engineered and also maintained, so those jobs will continue. Manufacturing may be minimal in the future, but the jobs will still be there. More and more. Some things will remain unchanged, showering, sex, very personal things, but we as a race are more than willing to accept the help of machines at this point in many mundane tasks.”
A tenure track professor at a US research university said, No. “There will not be fewer jobs, but it’s likely that there will be different jobs.”
A director of IT for the New York Academy of Medicine wrote, Yes. “No question about it. I won’t elaborate too much except to say that your question nails it: put another way: networked, automated, AI applications and robotic devices have and will continue to displace more jobs than they create. toll collection, banking, checkout at the store, self-driving cars.. I’m sure there’s lots more I’m not thinking about.”
A CEO wrote, Yes. “First off, [it’s a question] if we even make it to 2025. That said, I believe strongly we are near the end of the calculus of human need and desire. Unless there is a significant realistic new frontier, we have filled up all the gaps in this thin slice of existence. There’s nothing more the ‘I’ wants or needs. The creation is complete. Social consequence? We will be nostalgic for existential angst. There will be lots more suicides.”
A university research fellow wrote, No. “This is akin to saying we will all drive flying cars. The advancements will be incremental. Any displacements will be in manufacturing only.“
A pioneering academic computer scientist from Princeton University wrote, No. “Jobs will be displaced, but the improvements in efficiency and quality of life will lead to the emergence of more and better jobs elsewhere in the economy. The new jobs will be diffuse and it will be difficult to attribute the role of robots in facilitating their creation, but on the whole they will exist and will outnumber the displaced jobs. Robotics will play important roles in transporting people and goods. This will provide more autonomy to people who are currently unable to drive, and it will improve efficiency of transport. Buildings and consumer products will be ‘smarter,” which will offer some convenience, but not a radical improvement, in quality of life. People will want to retain control over their surroundings, so will not yield as much autonomy over their environment as some robot optimists expect.”
An anonymous respondent who works as a journalist wrote, No. “Over the past centuries there has been no shortage of new demands and desires that create new jobs to replace those replaced by automation. Keynes thought his grandchildren would have a 15-hour week. Yet we’ve never worked harder or longer, largely doing things which Keynes couldn’t imagine would be necessary. That said, jobs are likely to be less secure than those of the 20th century because they are anchored in individual skills rather than giant production lines. Ford had momentum. Individuals just have opportunities, which come and go. So we’ll be looking for more social structures to even out the ups and downs of individual careers. Not the wage-increasing push of the 20th-century unions, but the mutual assistance and training of the 18th- and 19th-century friendly societies. They’re already here, doing credit-scoring, airline routing, package delivery, and a bunch of other things that we just take for granted. We will continue to take them for granted as they advance—and that will be the measure of their success.”
A professor of new media and Internet studies at a European graduate school wrote, Yes. “Naturally, those with little competitive skills will find it more difficult to find jobs. It is going to be a challenge for all those working in areas such as industry, service, etc.. However, higher education and science-driven careers along with art and other creative domains will still require humans.”
A PhD student wrote, No. “No there will always be a need of people managing and maintaining technologies. More and more. Communicating and traveling will be easier and easier.”
An Internet pioneer who has been in the field since the 1970s wrote, Yes. ”It is happening now! The legal system is the next hurdle.”
A researcher at a marketing firm doing work in the online privacy space responded, Yes. “I don’t know what kind of jobs that technology would create, but it’s clear that robotic devices are already eliminating jobs. I suspect that AI will become more prevalent in things like customer service, sales. and tech support. These are areas where interactions tend to follow a pattern and aren’t too complex. I don’t expect medical or legal or scientific or financial positions to be taken by AI. Maybe self-driving taxis or buses?”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “There will certainly be changes in the types of work that need to be done by humans, but there isn’t anything different about this set of technologies than all those have come before it. Some people will have skills that will no longer be in demand. Other skills will be in short supply. It’s not clear what those will be, though a basic understanding of what computers and computer-controlled machines can (and cannot) do, and how, will be a necessary pillar of basic education in the next decade. Beyond that, it’s hard to say. I suspect that the promise of true AI will in 2025 be 20 years in the future, as it was in 1965 and as it is today. ‘Big Data”—applying analytics wider as ever larger and disparate sources of data become available and practical to process—gives us a lot of the benefit without pretending to actual intelligence. Robotics, I think, will continue to be invisible: think home automation for energy efficiency and control systems in cars. Systematic ‘robotization’ will lag due to safety concerns (and, in litigious societies, liability concerns).”
An executive for national news organization Yes. “Artificial intelligence advances are happening faster than the general public realizes, and will result in substantial displacement in jobs, especially in the transportation, manufacturing and technology sectors.”
The president of a technology consulting company responded, Yes. “Robotic advances will displace jobs, but at a slow rate. 2025 is not very far off and the technology needed to create serious disruption in employment will take more time. Innovations such as self-driving cars will take a great deal more time than small innovations such as we see now, like cars with park assistance inelegance. Part of the technologies will be integrated. Another example would be robotic vacuums as a step towards robotic house cleaners. Partial integration of larger robotic innovations will cost some jobs by 2025, but it will take more time for the full impact to be felt.”
A professor at a major US research university wrote, Yes. “It is hard to see how this won’t happen. Robots and AI are becoming so skilled that it almost looks certain.”
A professor at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain, responded, “Well, I have answered yes, but the right answer is ‘I really don’t know.’ It is quite hard to outlook how the market will evolve in more than 10 years. The social consequence will be a reconfiguration of social classes and especially that the working class will be larger, and the middle class smaller than now. Household objects are likely to use AI, especially, I think. Cars will be dominated, hopefully, by robotics.”
The CEO of a not-for-profit technology/education/innovation company responded, No. “I am skeptical of the degree to which robotic technologies will further displace human labor. The most visible example of this so far is in factory automation and that application is now rather old and has had its impact.”
A professor of entrepreneurship at Tel Aviv University wrote, Yes. “Regular jobs will go away. Innovation and venture will emerge.”
A professor at a university in Wales, responded, No. “I find this hypothesis a scaremongering one. Technological growth of this kind is not like the sudden automisation of a factory, it is an organic change in the nature of our work-lives on a global scale. An advanced Western nation like ours has an unemployment rate not significantly different from that it had in 1850 or 1950, barring the recent economic crisis. There is no reason to think that AI will shift employment rates significantly by 2025, or by 2055. “
A professor at South Dakota State University wrote, Yes. “The net loss to all jobs to automation is ever-increasing, over 50% of service-type jobs.”
The grants coordinator at academic center for digital inclusion responded, Yes. “My views are pessimistic. I think a small group of competing elites will be in charge with more and more people considered disposable. Nations will be increasingly irrelevant as corporations grow in power.”
A professor at the iSchool at the University of British Columbia responded, No. “The creation of jobs around robotics is just at its beginning. However, these are still at the leading edge of development, requiring a highly trained workforce that is good at computing, human task and action understanding, social consequences, etc. Robots and self-driving cars themselves will not be taking jobs until we have greater public acceptance of their performance. Digital agents, however, running invisibly on the Internet will likely be operating without our awareness. But, I don’t see them as taking jobs, but rather as opening up new areas for automation.”
A college professor wrote, Yes. “This has already begun happening. 3D printing will also impact things like the physical delivery of products. Numerous people are out of work—way more than popular data is showing. If we’re lucky, we’ll all be put on middle-class welfare to keep people from becoming destitute and desperate. We are not creative enough to make meaningful jobs out of nothing—and that’s what we’ll be left with when we give all the skilled labor and unskilled labor to the machines. All aspects of life will be affected in some way, as they already have. Even the most intimate sorts of things will have more tools involved. Caregiving tasks, sexuality, food preparation and eating. It’s already here—any further advances will be easy because people are already so much like robots as it is—eating without utensils, acting in stereotyped ways, responding to the clock instead of their own bodies’ rhythms, medicating away feelings, etc.
A professor in the University of California system working in a discipline that combines ICT with social sciences responded, No. “We will continue to see displacement of jobs from the lower-paid to the more educated. There will always be a need for *some* people in low-paid service jobs, and some manufacturing, but there will be far fewer. Many of the jobs that will exist in the US will be as care-givers, for older people and for children. The overseas outsourcing of jobs will slow simply because there will be fewer countries where there are low-wage workers, and robotic workers will be cheaper and more reliable. And not subject to political upheaval or natural disasters. People with education and innovative thinking will always make their own jobs, as we see in Silicon Valley. We will see deeper poverty and human suffering in places like Bangladesh, which will suffer from natural disasters as well as the loss of low-wage work. Very much. Mostly as smart, networked, special-purpose devices.”
An anti-spam and security architect wrote, Yes. “Even more than robots, it is capable AI that will gradually reduce jobs and push lesser-skilled people out of the job market. But then again the steady plummet in education levels, especially in science, technology, engineering, and math, means the supply of young innovators might dry up or sharply reduce so that compensates to some extent. As does the growing energy crisis so you might end up with if not a dystopian future, at least a future that is closer to today’s reality than to The Jetsons. There will be more smart devices to start with, and pilot/driverless transportation systems. Cashiess economies and policing might see progress, even with Minority Report-style predictive analytics of crime trends.
A PhD student in communications wrote, No. “Jobs like customer service, in all its forms, will remain unchanged. Twelve years is not long enough for society to have changed so much that people will not want to talk to another person when they are looking for help or answers. I believe what will have changed are practices like transportation—perhaps not a highway full of self-driving cars just yet, but certainly a lot of mass transportation.”
The CEO of an ISP serving Wyoming since 1994, wrote, Yes. “I don’t have any numbers, but we are continually increasing the productivity per person without any appreciation for the lack of job creation for folks on the lower end of the IQ scale. Basic manual labor is no longer valued in this country by the people who should be doing it, so automation is necessary to get the work done, but what do we do with the people? Manufacturing is changing the most from robotics, but we are seeing AI start to impact positions such as transcription in hospitals. Surgery is going to benefit greatly from robotics, but the price will continue to increase, blamed on the cost of the equipment.”
The owner of a small publishing and consulting business wrote, No. “The consequences will be the same as always: Creation and destruction.”
An independent researcher wrote, No. “Levels of employment/unemployment are a function of economic policy and not technologically determined. My preferred answer would be ‘it all depends.’ If there is a break form monetarist hyper free market ideology then yes, if these destructive mindsets lose their hegemony then we will see jobs created. Household management will become more automated, driverless cars will be becoming commonplace.”
A retired software engineer and IETF participant responded, Yes. “To the extent that our culture focuses on monetary value, and to the extent that labor cost has become the primary dimension in which Western corporations are able to optimize, the only way that automation will be permitted to create more jobs than it destroys will be if those new jobs are at substantially lower wages than the existing ones.”
A professor at a major US business school responded, No. “Fears of displacement from machines are always exaggerated, and have been for decades. Labor-saving devices always lead to temporary displacement but enable new activities in the long run. This generation’s reaction is not any different than the prior generation’s. It is nothing dramatic. Automated cars will not make it into use—this is far harder than anybody is letting on in public conversation. IBM’s Watson was so specialized to one application that it will take enormous effort to reapply it to anything else. We will see these advances in little things, like better phone trees, and smarter applications online. Asking for directions in a car will be more natural too.”
A technology developer and administrator wrote, No. “Forgiveness of human mistakes will continue to be higher than that of AI, as AI mistakes will be seen as systemic since the same mistake will be present in all versions of the software. Therefore AI and robotic use in more advanced applications will continue to be stalled in favor of simple robotics such as is used in manufacturing. The cost of human labor in many times will be lower than the larger scale robotics that could displace it. Robotics will move faster in consumer applications where the displaced activity has a non-critical function (conveniences).”
An associate professor at the Pratt Institute responded, Yes. “Even today, many people jobs can easily be replaced in many services such as postal workers, bank tellers. Fast food restaurants for example, will be completely automated. Higher education is already being replaced by MOOCs and the one-size-fits-all is around the corner for K-12, services, education, and security. Unchanged: physical intercourse.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. ‘They already have.”
A professor of telecommunications at Pennsylvania State University wrote, No. “The answer is both, and that this is not a very helpful question, as it sweeps in too many things. AI will be ubiquitous and has the potential to greatly improve the quality of life, which is not necessarily an issue about ‘jobs.’ Back in the 1950s and 1960s when people first started to become aware of the power of computers, the utopian futurists in the US and Japan looked ahead optimistically to the time when computers would free large numbers of people from the burdens of work, at least menial work. People would have more time for self-improvement, artistic and musical endeavors, and life in greater harmony with the environment. Now we call those people ‘unemployed.’ What happened to the dream (and of course there were dystopian visions as well)? I would not use the word ‘disruption.’ There is a gradual process underway in which our ability to produce what humanity needs is being increasingly enabled by the use of information technology. There is always some turnover in the economy in where the most jobs are, e.g., agriculture to industrial to information (anyway, some say that). When the car was introduced, buggy whip makers went out of business. It will ever be so (I hope—if there’s no innovation, we’re in trouble!). Yes, of course some sectors will lose jobs, and other sectors will gain, but the question is whether on a net basis social well-being will overall be enhanced, which I believe it will be unless the real disruption comes from senseless political decisions, in which Natural Stupidity overcomes Artificial Intelligence. People will get used to AI in the production process, but its much greater, albeit perhaps more subtle, impact will be on society at large. I’ll make it simple. Unless you belong to a sect (Amish, etc.—no electricity, no motors), every part of everyone’s life will be affected and changed. Most people’s attention is focused on other issues, and AI is way down the list. Big mistake, as it may have the most overall potential for driving overall social change, but in more subtle ways. Not to say that 2025 is some kind of magic date—we are in an incremental process which is underway now and will continue beyond that, so it’s sort of arbitrary to pick and choose specific items. It pains me to use the phrase, as it’s too precious, but thing of the emerging global broadband noosphere (and if you don’t know what this is, you can google it). Intelligence is emerging in individual applications, but more importantly, the intelligence is developing in the network—it just needs the software to organize it (think Watson) and the way to interact with it (think Siri) with the proverbial stocks (think the Google Books project) and flows (near zero latency from the ‘cloud’ accessible everywhere), and some pretty good language conversion software. Interesting article in the Dec. 2013 Scientific American, How Google is Changing Your Brain. They are starting to figure it out—such a world will fundamentally change how we think and how we relate to each other. It may or may not be a better world; it will surely be a different one. AI will move from being a tool to being a partner, and perhaps then to being a friend. AI will get more ‘human’ and ‘humans’ will get more wired in to AI. That of course gets us into the crazyland of the singularity, and I don’t go there. Individual applications should include real-time speech translation; medical analysis (where Watson is spending his time these days); and ‘smart’ anything, as everything will have a chip in it, and will talk to its kind and probably to everything else. The reality of videogames and their built-in ‘smart AI’ will increasingly overlap with our ‘normal’ consensus reality, and we will have tools (think super-Google Glass) that enable us to live in both worlds at once. There will be many cool applications of this for e-commerce, but also extensions of ‘serious games’ in work, education, governance, etc.”
The co-founder of a consultancy with practices in Internet technology and biomedical engineering wrote, No. I think the industrial-age concept of ‘jobs’ is already outdated. technology has continually emerged to perform tasks that can be automated. In the Jetsons cartoon (or in Kurt Vonnegut’s Player Piano), automation leaves humans idle with ‘nothing to do.’ In reality, adopting technology as it enters the mainstream (and achieves critical mass-adoption) is a matter of competitive necessity for both business and social participation. I am not defined by my job, and if the work I perform is assimilated by machine labor, I must evolve to support myself in other ways. This is not a new phenomenon by any means, and ‘jobs’ were a concept that made more sense in the industrial revolution than they do today. I don’t think 11 years will bring radical changes in the use of robotics or full-fledged self-aware devices driven by artificial intelligence. The field of AI is 60 years old and seems to help us make evolutionary improvements to traditional software, rather than introducing the revolutionary superhuman androids of science fiction.”
The general counsel for an Internet domain name registry wrote, Yes. “I see this as a continuing trend. The disruption has already begun. I doubt that autos will be robotic, but mass transit will become increasingly automated.”
The chief executive of one of the key Internet infrastructure organizations responded, Yes. “Advances in technology will result in some job displacement, but if such advances are allowed to provide benefits to society in general, then the consequences will still be net positive.”
An Internet researcher and programmer wrote, Yes. “If the last 20 years are any indicator (or really, any period of time for that matter), then obviously we should expect a lag between displacement and retraining/career switching. It’s almost a natural consequence of technological improvement that at any point in time a technology has this effect. In the long run, though, new industries are found and people will be able to work elsewhere.”
A computer science and security professor at Purdue University wrote, Yes. “Displacement of menial jobs means that individuals without skills (or ability to learn skills) may have fewer opportunities for employment.”
A member of the Internet Society chapter in Costa Rica wrote, No. “AI will deliver many more high value-added jobs than the number of old-styled ones it destroys. AI and robotics will be able to deliver many more public goods and services than today, but only in the countries that invest in those.”
A software engineer who works for a major US technology company said, Yes. “I expect AI developments to take people by surprise by 2025. AI was oversold for so long and had so little success, that people have forgotten about it. But I expect AI to be able to pass adult reading comprehension tests by 2020. There are large areas of the economy that will be affected by this, and the skills needed to manage the AIs will be highly specialized and out of the reach of 95% of people. This will be very socially divisive. As power shifts from labor to capital, inequality will increase and social stability will decrease. Modern `Luddite’ thinking is likely to be mainstream.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “The displacement and creation will balance each other out.“
An attorney at a major law firm responded, Yes. “The field within which I work, the law, currently employs many thousands to review documents. They are already being replaced by predictive-coding algorithms. By 2025, those jobs will not exist for any but the most opaque documents and thus there will be many thousands of lawyers out of work. I find it difficult to imagine any industry that is more knowledge- and thought-intensive than law, and we are already being replaced by machines. I suspect this will disrupt most industries. Describing which parts of life will change is far too broad a question because I believe the answer to that is: all.”
A professor at the University of Pittsburgh wrote, Yes, “I’m confident that Silicon Valley will contribute to increased unemployment, especially in countries like the United States, but I’m not sure that those jobs will be ‘displaced,’ if that means that technologies will directly replace human labor in particular tasks. Rather it seems to me like Silicon Valley participates in creating a class of rich and politically powerful rentiers who are ideologically committed to doing everything possible to increase the number of unemployed because they are class warriors allergic to social justice. I’m sure these people will justify their actions in terms of ‘creative destruction,’ but that doesn’t make it true.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “The question seems to assume advances in strong AI that are unrealistic. Also, there remain formidable barriers to adopting the technologies that do become available (i.e., legal liability). Historically, automation saves time but not money. While displacements may occur, implementing new automation opens up new service sectors managing the automation. This is largely unpredictable. Weak forms of AI appear to be poised for personal assistance in tasks like time and financial management, etc.”
The director for an e-learning strategies company wrote, No. “There’s a growing awareness of the importance of meaningfulness in life, and I think that we can and will have a recognition that technology should only be used for those tasks that humans want to outsource, and humans should retain those decisions that they wish to be involved in. In most if not all cases, a mixed initiative dialog will be used to accommodate desires for work. We will see a return to craftsmanship coupled with an emphasis on knowledge work. Very large parts of our existence can and will be handed off to technology to free us up to do the things we want to do.”
An Internet law student and human rights advocate responded, No. “Automated and AI work also need people to program them, operate them, fix them, etc. One industry may be impacted negatively, but another may grow to a very high degree. Such tools will especially impact the way individuals go about their every day lives (groceries, shopping, planning, trips, etc.).”
A professor at the University of California wrote, Yes. “Robots are not humans. I am seriously worried that robots will lead to human extinction in the advanced nations. Fortunately, countries like those of the African continent will remain untouched. Robotics will spell the end of Western civilization.”
The dean/provost of a research university wrote, No. “The new devices will certainly destroy some jobs, but they will create others. Intelligent devices calculate better than human beings, but they are not creative and don’t have judgment. They operate according to laws, and law has, from the beginning, needed human intervention to prevent it from behaving like an ass. I expect that for the general public, as opposed to manufacturing, services like banking will be most affected by AI by 2025. I doubt that education will be much affected, except for institutional services, such as registration for courses, financial aid functions, and the like. AI will also probably affect sales and such devices as refrigerators and cooking (recipes, ingredients etc.).”
A researcher responded, Yes. “Presumably this is a slow progression to automation. It will be interesting to see if anything comes of the ‘maker’ movement. But fundamentally, there is bound to be a decrease in the need for labor when instead of an on-going assembly line you can have a robot programmed once. FedEx and taxi services will look different with self-driving cars. Warfare will be very different, travel will be different, manufacturing will continue to change over time. Robotic surgery currently offers little advantage but likely will moving forward.”
A Web standardization expert wrote, Yes. “Our ability to replace jobs displaced by automation (no need to bring AI into it) is limited by our ability to educate those displaced and find useful work for them. While history shows that there will be significantly new forms of employment in the next 10 years—including those brought by robotics—it also shows that large disruptions due to automation do displace large numbers of workers.”
An associate professor at a university responded, No. “Robots and AI tools will displace some but not many jobs by 2025. It’s just a little more than 10 years away, so one cannot expect many changes during such a short period of time. But by 3000, maybe many jobs will be done by robots. Robots will do blue-collar jobs mostly (especially, dangerous ones). That’s a vision from a well-known film I, Robot that was based on Isaac Asimov’s novels. Everybody will have a robot, a kind of ‘personal slave.’ They will do dangerous and difficult jobs (e.g. coal mining) and jobs that are complex, require time and digital competences (e.g. data mining).”
A research scientist working at a major search engine company responded, No. “AI (generally) will have changed the skill level for many jobs, but humans are still more flexible and better designed for many jobs (esp. those in the service industry). By 2025, this fundamental property will not have changed. There will be more ‘magic’ in the world. I mean this in the sense that more actions will be taken (for us, to us, by our systems) that will not have explanations attached or perceivable reasons why they’re being taken. Example: recommender systems will become everyday (multiple times per day) interactions. In many cases, even the software engineers have no idea (really) why a particular recommendation is being made. That’s surprising, and magical. You decide if it’s net good or not. Opinions will be split.”
A webmaster wrote, No. “Such advances are in their formative stages; a longer period of time will be needed before such possible impacts can be considered. The ordinary landscape will not include AI and robotics unless the ordinary landscape is that of a war zone. Zones of conflict will change the most as we increase our capacity to kill efficiently; the life of the affluent will remain relatively unchanged.”
A research professor of computer science at Georgetown University responded, No. “These devices and technologies will eliminate many, many jobs, but will create many new jobs, like maintaining the devices. Unless we have a repeat of the Interdiction or the Luddites/Mullahs/Whomever rolls us back to the Middle Ages, we can expect a continuation of the proliferation and networking of smart devices.”
An academic researcher at MIT responded, Yes. “Automation will displace jobs. People will need to find jobs that require people to do them. We will see less personal contact and more automation.”
A senior lecturer at Ohio State University wrote, Yes. “In my own field, education, robotization can allow an instructor to spend more time on planning and actual contact with students. For MOOCs to be truly successful, they must incorporate at least some elements of AI. If our corrupt and overly bureaucratized system can be reformed, the use of robotization and AI will have a positive result for education. If, on the other hand, those in charge continue to slavishly adopt every ‘next new thing,’ we could be in for a bumpy ride. The area to watch is elder care. AI and robotics could be a very useful component of keeping older people from being isolated, but it may not be available for the financially disadvantaged.”
A digital learning and media specialist and educator responded, No. “You will still need people to create these agents and applications, maintain them, etc. There will still be things that machines cannot do.”
A technology policy expert wrote, No. “There will be a steady growth in this area, but it’s hard for me to say what its impact will be outside of certain niche sectors of the economy. Sure, certain factories will become highly robotocized, and I do think we will see self-driving cars in the next five years, but how long for market penetration to a point that it becomes more than a niche? How long for regulations to change that will allow some of these developments to operate within current conditions? That, I think, is more than 13 years away (but I am no economist). I don’t spend any time in factories or on farms, but I do hear in news reports that there are some super-great robots that can do lots of complex tasks on factory floors, and that tons of farm-related work that used to be done by hand can now be done by very complex (and expensive) tractors. I expect that will continue, especially in factories as robots can work 24/7. Where I think the public will see it more is via mobile devices (apps, quantified self stuff), and home automation. I expect that new construction will include learning thermostats, embedded smoke detectors, smart appliances, automated door locks, etc. all run by apps.”
A self-employed entrepreneur and author wrote, No. “I don’t buy the idea that humans won’t continue to dream up more things to do with our time.”
An Internet pioneer, Internet Hall of Fame member, and longtime National Science Foundation employee wrote, Yes. “Tech advances are advertised as creating more jobs than they eliminate. But, alas, the jobs that are created will require skills that will be in short supply. Most displaced workers will lack the needed skills. I harken back to Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.’s story Player Piano. It is prophetic. Geez, I cannot project even five years ahead, let alone more than 10 years. And, I wouldn’t place much credence in anyone that claims that ability.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “We have been witnessing the displacing effect of automation for close to a century now. We still have not figured out what to do with the displaced humans—I hope we will, but fear we won’t, given how automation benefits the elites running the show. We’ll see more Siri-ish personal assistants that can respond to natural-language queries. These will be integrated into consumer products such as TVs, cars, and refrigerators as well as the web. Self-driving cars are already here—governments have only to catch up with regulations allowing mass production. But anything involving creativity, the arts, or nontrivial conceptual synthesis will remain the domain of human thought for the time being—I’ve seen no indication that machines could produce an award-winning screenplay or a work of true scholarly genius.”
An anonymous respondent known for her Internet research wrote, Yes. “We are facing a jobs-free future. Routine labour intensive jobs are being gradually replaced by machines already. Large employers such as miners are already working on people-less mining operations. Things like 3D printing are starting to shift production from factory to home. New jobs will emerge, it is hard to imagine what they will be though. The Internet of things, which is real now, and quantum computing, which is emerging now, are both going to create a new industrial revolution. These along will completely reshape the personal computing and services and manufacturing and business.”
A research director for Microsoft responded, No. “The level of expertise needed by individuals to navigate our world will go up. Undergraduate degrees (not high school degrees) will be necessary. High-paying jobs will be created and the general standard of living will go up. Citizens will have more tools for creativity and invention and individual/societal productivity will go up.”
A Mozilla browser engineer wrote, Yes. “Current trends indicate that the economy in its current form is ill-suited to support large numbers of low- and un-skilled workers. As more jobs become replaceable, I predict large societal upheavals as the gap between highly skilled (and highly paid) workers and a high proportion of partially or totally unemployed people continues to widen, even as relative standard of living for those people is not significantly diminished. I expect that most service positions, especially driving, will be filled with machines, except for boutique appointments. Transportation will be transformed by this, though the transformation will likely be still in progress by this date.”
A researcher at Tallinn University in Estonia wrote, No. “There is a chance that the nature of work will have changed a bit, but for markets humans are a resource whose education and skills is an opportunity to be used. In capitalism markets create new jobs and it is then the purpose of governments to equip people with relevant skills and knowledge. In only 12 years the nature of needed skills and education will not change that significantly to put a substantial portion of people out of jobs/markets. Some of the operations will be automated—similarly to ways as they are already.”
A lecturer at Southern Cross University in Australia wrote, No. “Environmental concerns and world wide unemployment will take precedence over robotic interventions in industry. AI and robotics are already fully integrated with most European-American industrial models, and by 2025 Asia will be taking the lead in these systems.”
An anonymous respondent said, No. “As John Naisbitt wrote in the 1991 book Megatrends we will have, ‘High Tech with High Touch.’ There will be more services—hopefully peaceful and fruitful, but then again possibly more strife. We will need teachers, libraries, construction teams, and artists. Repetitious and dangerous activities may be the domain of AI. Invention and tinkering will continue to be the human domain.”
The CEO of a professional not-for-profit society responded, No. “While I firmly believe we will have more AI and robots in our lives, none of those tech advances have judgment, and the human race and its enterprises will always value and need judgment. We will have more and more robots and AI in our lives, although I fear the benefits will accrue to those who can afford the gadgets (top 1 or 2%). For those people, they will have more productive time. For example, a car that drives itself will give you time to read, work or make calls when you would now be driving. This may also mean more leisure time and more time with family, making work-life balance an attainable goal. The negative is whether this will continue to deepen and widen the digital divide among economic classes and global cultures.”
The senior policy advisor for a major European Internet operations organization responded, No. “I’m not sure there is any evidence one way or another, but evidence on the take-up of the Internet and the new services this has promoted suggest that these new ‘technologies’ will enable a large number of additional services that will more than replace the jobs lost in traditional sectors. I have no way of assessing this. I can imagine that it will be very high when/if the conditions are right (economic and environmental) and very low if cost outweighs benefits.”
A researcher at a small Internet user consulting firm responded, No. “Some retraining may be needed but employment will be available.”
An employee of the government of a State in Europe also involved in Internet-based research and teaching replied, Yes. “More automated jobs will be gone—rather support functions then jobs for brains (creativity). Nobody whines that the jobs for drivers decreased since the dawn of the car or horse coaches. The AI will mainly provide support functions in the background.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. “Displacement of rote, mechanical jobs could go up. There will be a greater need for the research and development of the next step in robotic advancement, which could cause a greater need for white-collar workers. In medicine, it will be wonderful. Robotic surgery in the last 5-6 years has resulted in less invasive surgical techniques with faster patient recovery. Hopefully, as more of that is done, costs will come down in the medical field. Patients with artificial limbs can only benefit, too. I am hoping that as the population grows older, advances can be made in aids to the elderly to help them live more self-sufficient lives and keep them relevant to the times instead of afterthoughts. Definitely, in medicine, perhaps in transportation advances. Better mass transit?”
An anonymous survey participant observed, No. “Just as the human race has adapted for other revolutions, agricultural and industrial, we will adapt to these changes. What is important is to be open to the changes and expect that while some job may stay the same, others will be in forms that do not exist yet. Industry will be the most changed by the advent of AI. While home life will change as well, there are limits to the ways in which AI can do many of the personal, day-to-day, activities for individuals.”
A telecommunications and Internet policy professional who works for a Japanese non-profit semi-academic research center wrote, Yes. “Amazon’s set things in motion. This will continue. There will be new apps and services every day. They will guide us from place to place; in time and place. Unchanged: drinking alcohol.”
A senior researcher at a leading British university observed, No. A senior researcher at a leading British university observed, ‘This question is worded oddly. I expect there to be more of these devices, but I would be shocked if the roads are full of autonomous vehicles in 12 years.
An anonymous respondent said, Yes. “We will not recognise the advancement, as it will be subtle and ubiquitous. One of the key roles will be as assistance for the expanding aging population.”
A consumer advocate wrote, No. “Robotics has already reached its apex, and AI has advanced much slower than anyone envisaged since the 1960s. It remain be largely invisible to the general public, as it is today.”
An executive creative strategist wrote, No. “As any new industry, I guess (and hope) it’ll bring new activities and new ventures around these revolutions. I am not sure that it’ll uplift the general good; engineers will remain engineers while people in charge of maintenance will do the maintenance. I don’t know which part of our daily lives won’t be impacted by that. Smartphones are already in our beds, so our beds will also be connected at some point.”
A computer programmer for the Canadian government wrote, Yes. “Data scientists are working to reduce payrolls. Roles of the AI—some unsafe work will be done by robots.”
The research director at a technology trade association responded, Yes. “More people will be forced out of growing sectors of the workforce, with downward mobility, unemployment, and underemployment resulting. Growing alienation and fear of the future will mark the lives of some members of the baby boomer population. Younger workers will pursue simultaneous micro-careers and small-business entrepreneurship in order to find a place in the evolving economy. Traditional jobs across the board, from entry-level service jobs through higher-skilled production and intellectually-challenging jobs, will be reduced in number. AI and robotics will initially be incorporated into networked devices and systems with which people will interact on a user interface basis (such as through electronic locking and unlocking systems, traffic management systems, and a variety of gridded delivery systems—whether for products, energy, or water). More personalized elements (devices to help physically handicapped individuals) will also increase in number and sophistication.”
A senior consultant for user experience for Forum One Communications said, No. “AI and robotics is going to be hype for a long time still. There will be advances, sure, but not enough to dramatically disrupt the workforce.”
A self-employed consultant wrote, Yes, “The displacement will be a continuation of the two main trends—low-wage jobs will be replaced but higher-wage, higher-education jobs will increase. The second trend will be towards jobs in manufacturing and service continuing to migrate out of the industrialized first world as it becomes largely a knowledge-based GDP and jobs requiring more education move to urban centers—in near-city states rather than national economies. The 2025 landscape will not be largely the poster products like self-driving cars or drone delivery—but will be focused on the opportunities on the Internet of things as every object becomes locally intelligent and accessible.”
A longtime participant in the Internet Engineering Task Force and development of the Internet’s architecture wrote, No. “My observation of advances in automation has been that they change jobs, but they don’t reduce them. A car that can guide itself on a striped street has more difficulty with an unstriped street, for example, and any automated system can handle events that it is designed for, but not events (such as a child chasing a ball into a street) for which it is not designed. Yes, I expect a lot of change. I don’t think the human race can retire en mass by 2025. I would expect that AI and robotics will be very much a part of daily life. In simple forms, it already is.”
The senior policy advisor for a major European Internet operations organization responded, No. “I’m not sure there is any evidence one way or another, but evidence on the take-up of the Internet and the new services this has promoted suggest that these new ‘technologies’ will enable a large number of additional services that will more than replace the jobs lost in traditional sectors. I have no way of assessing this. I can imagine that it will be very high when/if the conditions are right (economic and environmental) and very low if cost outweighs benefits.”
A university professor from the US wrote, Yes. “The impact of AIs and robotics is often overstated, but automation of vehicles and improvements in robotics in warehousing operations should lead to a steady loss of employment in all areas of logistics, with the impact felt initially in warehouse operations and then moving into delivery of goods/materials. If Amazon is already seriously contemplating delivery-by-drone, I cannot believe they are not also planning on automating warehouse operations to a greater extent than they already have. Blue-collar jobs that involve moving goods/merchandise will be increasingly threatened. While AIs will see more use, their impact on white-collar jobs will be much more limited as their ability to apprehend complicated social contexts will limit their use as decision makers. They will be a significant part of the landscape, but to a great extent I suspect a hidden part of the landscape. As robotics play a larger and larger role in manufacturing and logistics, they will displace human operators. But non-work areas of life will not see a major impact as a result of AIs within the short term. A household in 2025 will look very much like a household in 2013, although in higher end homes with newer appliances the household may be more energy efficient.”
The technology director for a major global news provider responded, No. “I don’t believe this is a one-way street. The Internet of Things should enhance economic opportunity beyond what we know today. Adding AI and robotics to the ordinary landscape of life should unleash a new wave of creativity from the human race. It will translate into more time to think as well as do, meaning the pace of change will no doubt greatly accelerate.”
A researcher and graduate student wrote, No. “New job opportunities will occur although some old ones can be accommodated by AI.”
The executive director of a nonprofit that protects civil liberties online responded, No. “People will be needed to design and maintain the technology. I suspect AI and robots will be much more commonplace by 2025.”
The director of a Web-based journalism project at a major US university responded, No. “Technology has had a significant impact on the manufacturing sector, but things have begun to level off and the impact will not be as great in the next 12 years or so.”
An Internet researcher and entrepreneur said, No. “2025 is too close to expect that bus drivers, delivery people will be out of jobs. That is coming, but there is no way the US can get its infrastructure act together to support widespread autonomous autos in a little more than 10 years. 30 years from now there will be no bus drivers. AI will be a part of everything. Your coffeemaker will use Bayesian methods to figure out your perfect cup. Robotics, on the other hand, will not be commonplace in the home—though we will see large advances in use of robotics in health care.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “Not necessarily, it’s just a matter of keeping individuals educated and growing away from standard jobs. Unfortunately, due to policy making, and tech firms having to show short term profits, AI and robotics will probably not be as far along as people might think. We’ve understood that public transportation is absolutely necessary yet, little to no investment is being done to it. What good will self-driven cars be in 2025 if they are just sitting in one massive traffic jam.”
A professor at a Big 10 research university in the US wrote, Yes. “As machines get smarter, they will continue to displace today’s jobs. But new jobs will emerge. The line between white and blue-collar will not be clear. You need high tech skills even today to do what we still call blue-collar jobs. Which parts will change the most: factory work and manufacturing; higher education (especially college); tenure and the professoriate; medicine in certain situations; travel.”
An employee of the US government based in Washington, DC, responded, No. “These advances will create hundreds of new jobs we cannot even foresee or predict, while at the same time making other jobs obsolete. It will be an evolution more than a displacement. Not that prevalent to everyday Americans, though to science, medicine, energy, and manufacturing they will be routine in operations.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “Robots and AI need to be seen in a much longer historical period. So the change around work will be complex—rather like the industrial revolution. Robotics will be more like computers—embedded in everyday life. And we’ll have a better sense of what areas we don’t need, or want, robots to be involved in.”
An administrator for technology-focused units in educational nonprofits responded, No. “When robots perform an avenue of work more efficiently and effectively than humans, other avenues of work that robots cannot perform well are being/will be created and pursued by people. Many industries (defense, medical, transportation, education, commerce/finance, manufacturing, and more) are using robotics, in turn freeing people to pursue other activities. As a result, new jobs/employment practices (better suited to direct human physical/mental effort) may emerge as practice evolves. Still, current white and blue-collar jobs are being/will be affected; and the social consequences are disconcerting, since such disruption usually makes people very anxious, more risk averse, and thus less imaginative (which is needed for creating new employment/work space opportunities). Further, if people assume a survivalist mentality, the quality of processes involved in creating new ideas and new employment practices may suffer as a result of mental/emotional pressures associated with high stakes/perceived-as-life-threatening decision processes. The level of anxiety that a society must deal with will affect the degree to which citizens’ imaginations will turn to creating new courses of action and activity and how rapidly any possibilities may be realized, which makes knowing what 2025 will bring very difficult. The technology is changing very rapidly and providing many new opportunities; but human/cultural change seems to occur much more slowly, even when the possibility of creating new kinds of white and blue-collar jobs exists. AI and robotics will be a significant part of the following landscapes: transportation, manufacturing, household utilities, some medical applications, some educational applications, some commerce applications. People will have opportunities to have access and, as important, time to engage more types of information/activities/resources as they are freed from doing (or thinking about) related ‘physical and mental basics’ for themselves. Technology-enriched vehicles also have the ability to provide new understandings, to help paint new pictures, and to help solve complex problems. Relatively unchanged areas of life may cluster around aspects of living and working involving human needs for social, educational, economic, and political interactions that occur optimally (functionally) in the physical presence of other people (for example, working with babies or the elderly, or working with hands-on/minds-on aspects of peoples’ healthcare or educational needs).”
A PhD candidate in information sciences and technology wrote, No. “I expect a disruption in the longer term, but in the shorter term, there will an explosion of jobs created by the desire to make these devices.”
A US federal government employee whose work involves Internet policy wrote, No. “Isaac Asimov notwithstanding, robots only do what they are told, and there will be a booming business on controlling (and building and programming) the robots.”
A top digital media strategist at a US national public news organization responded, Yes. “Our continuing failure to re-train underskilled workers will continue to create a glut of un- and under-employed as advances in AI and robotics require workers that are more educated than ever before. Those who attain those education levels will find new opportunities while underskilled workers are left on the curb.”
The CEO for a company that builds intelligent machines wrote, Yes. “Most information work isn’t all that complicated. Rarely in fact, does it require the kind of creative manipulation of symbols that usually counts for human intelligence. Where such tasks can be automated, they will be with an appropriate reduction in the human effort required. We’re just seeing the first fruits of this automation today, in fields like banking, where traditional retail banking services have been reduced to a couple of clicks in a mobile application. Who needs a branch teller when you can have that teller in your pocket? This goes double for truly mundane tasks like securities trading, where algorithms running in server farms located in the same co-lo as the exchanges execute 50% of a day’s trades on many markets. Where the money goes, so goes the society. I expect the service industries will survive for another 50 years or so past 2025, but then they will be ripe for automation as well, once we can build computers that can process natural human language more accurately, and robots that can simulate human behavior more closely. Breaking this down to the stratification used by Richard Florida: the creative class by 2025 will have a digital assistant in their work and personal lives who all but replaces what we think of today as administrative help. That entity (actually a collection of distributed software) will answer phones, schedule appointments (handling the logistics far more accurately than any human), manage the care and maintenance of that person’s living quarters and work environment, do the shopping and (where appropriate) be responsible for managing that person’s financial life. Those in service roles will have somewhat similar services, scaled back to accommodate their smaller fiat salaries. Where there is apprehension among these classes to ‘turning their lives over to machines,’ it will melt away as consumers of all stripes find that it is impossible to compete for jobs and a better life without these solutions working for you, when you cannot work (either because of sleep, or other human limitations).”
The policy director for one of the largest US-based technology companies wrote, No. “These advances may result in short term disruptions but upcoming generations will be better apt to adapt. More jobs are likely to be created, but the demand will be for high-skilled employees. The question will be whether society will advance the education system to create an environment that creates a skilled workforce that can take advantage of the technological advancements. Self-driving cars are too gimmicky. Robotics may be more integrated into the manufacturing landscape. Intelligent digital agents will be pervasive and assist in making both personal and professional lives easier.”
A professor at Stanford Law School wrote, Yes. “Robotics and similar technologies will displace lots of jobs. But those people will find productive things to do—not necessarily in fields created by robotics, but with the time that these advances have given them. Robotics and self-driving cars will free up substantial parts of our day. For some that will be a pure benefit; for others it will be partial compensation for the loss of work.”
An anonymous respondent said, No. “AI will continue to replace many blue-collar, unskilled, and clerical jobs, but all of those improvements will require an increase in the number of jobs required to maintain those systems, and continue to research and develop new tools. So probably a net wash, but a definite loss for people lacking technology skills. The big growth in the demand for technology skills will be in data management which is after all the necessary foundation for any AI or robotic system. As for robots—depends what you mean by a robotic device. A drive through car wash is a robotic device, as is a Roomba, as is a anthropomorphic device that for example, reminds elderly people to take their medicine and help in daily tasks. I’m not convinced that anthropomorphic robots will make much headway in the near future—there are too many issues with the ‘uncanny valley’ to overcome before people will accept regular interactions with them. So we probably will see the nonanthropomorphic kind of robot replace jobs that are mainly routine tasks, but not so much on the other type. So fewer bank tellers, but not fewer home health workers. As stated above, the uncanny valley will be a barrier to widespread adoption of anthropomorphic robots, but interacting with smart technology for routine tasks will become more common and accepted. I think the lifestyle changes brought on by increasingly sophisticated AI and robotic technology will be akin to the explosion of helpful household devices that came with the widespread deployment of electricity.”
A long-time leader of technology development for the World Wide Web responded, No. “Since the Industrial Revolution an argument has been posited that technology will displace humans in the job market. It has not happened. Advances in robotics and AI are likely to provide new opportunities for human workers that are not realized at this time.”
A professor of communications at a US research university wrote, No. “This technology will be developing, for sure, but not quite to the point of displacement. For example, self-driving cars need enough human drivers to get off the road for them to work.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “We will in 2025 live in a largely unregulated society. If so, they our wonderful market will once again surprise us with way in which people will meet to serve each others’ needs. If we continue in the direction of greater and greater regulation, then the opposite is likely. In the late 1950s, when there was great concern that factories and automation were going to make workers unnecessary. We have been happily surprised time after time since then. Further, let’s recall that there’s currently a great shortage of skilled workers in the US labor markets. So there will be a need for the educational system to provide the sorts of skills that will be required. As far as social consequences, education and skill development, and responsible work, is one of the greatest causes of social advancement of individuals and communities. Another huge question. (Not that I mind.) I consider ‘AI’ a misnomer. Once upon a time there were innovations in software. Then some goofball (initials MM) decided that there was this one branch of innovation that was going to be revolutionary, and by implication the others were not. So lets answer this w/r/t to computer scientific (CS) technologies and robots. We’re already surrounded by CS and robots. Apps. PC programs. Automobile control systems. Automated factory systems. Home entertainment systems. Microwave and other appliance. Future trends: more and more penetration of programmatic controls into a huge array of products. Some existing; some invented anew. Anthropomorphic forms? Not as common as one would think; non-anthropomorphics will dominate (e.g., ‘autopilot’ systems aren’t humanlike. They are programs build into the flight or drive control system).”
A research fellow at a top UK research university wrote, Yes. “The most interesting place that this is starting to happen is ‘commodity’ aspect of news such as sports reporting.”
An entrepreneur and electrical engineer active in ACM and IEEE wrote, No. “The total job pool, total economic activity and the average standard of living will all increase, but in the process, there will be substantial disruption of both white-collar and blue-collar jobs in the process. This is not unusual. It’s what has happened to different segments of our economy in wave after wave at least since the beginning of the industrial revolution.”
An anonymous respondent predicted, No. “AI and robotic devices will remain inferior to people in a range of jobs (typically caring for people, animals and nature, tutoring) that will be considered increasingly valuable.”
An executive at an Internet top-level domain name operator replied, Yes. “Automation was the hallmark of the industrial era, so why should today’s tech-driven economy be any different. Many of the jobs that could be replaced probably should be (i.e. menial drudgery). Considering the percentage of the US population that remains offline to this day, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves in predicting some kind of ‘I, Robot’ type world within 10 years—which is less time than the commercial Internet has been available.”
An engineer among in the top 50 in a networking company that employs 75,000 and leading participant in the IETF wrote, No. “Experience shows jobs eliminated by technologies appear elsewhere enabled by different technologies.”
A technology writer observed, Yes. “Look at yard maintenance, which employs hundreds of thousands. As soon as there’s a safe, cost-effective lawn-mowing robot, that will take over all the lawn mowing jobs there are. Artificial intelligence that will be able to answer questions over the telephone will displace the average call center employee for most calls. Those with only minimal education will be forced even more to the margins of society. Likely there will have to be a new social safety net for those that are simply unable to earn more than a poverty wage. Anything that can be reasonably automated will be automated. Self-driving cars, automated maintenance machinery (road repair, power line foliage trimming, snow removal), and airborne drones will be commonplace. I doubt we will see general-purpose human-sized ‘robots’ in widespread use. It’s just too hard to make such a general purpose robot with technology of the foreseeable future.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “New technologies will make obsolete some types of work, while creating vast new opportunities in other realms of the economy.”
An assistant professor at a Big 10 university replied, No. “With the development of technology comes the need to manage and advance the technology. Thus, jobs will be created. However, these jobs will be more advanced. So, those individuals with basic skill sets may be displaced for those with more advanced skills. Honestly, I’m not sure. The thought of it is more disturbing than inspiring. A society where humans no longer know how to be humans or know how to interact with humans—because they are so technology focused—is troubling.”
A university professor responded, Yes. “All in all, the experience is that jobless growth is more likely due to technological innovations described above. First of all, warfare technologies will advance tremendously. Most probably least affected will be the intimate spheres of personal life (in relative terms).”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Continuing on from robotic manufacturing advances, jobs opportunities will always remain for those able to attain the requisite skills. Service sector jobs will largely remain unchanged. The job availability disparity between unskilled and skilled persons will continue to increase.”
A freelance editor and writer wrote, No. “More devices should make for more jobs. Robotics will be more pervasive in the industrial complex is my guess.”
An assistant professor at New Mexico State University, responded, Yes. “Humanity is on course to create its own successor species in the form of robots and Artificial Intelligences if we allow market forces, the curiosity that drives technological innovation, and the military-industrial complex to operate without any governing constraint and regulation imposed by our species as a whole. While robots and AI’s could be wonderful servants and ‘smart tools’ if managed rightly, they could just as easily—or perhaps ever more easily, if we are unwise—become terrible masters. But that day will not have arrived yet by 2025. Instead, there will be growing awareness in society that structural unemployment is permanent and increasing. The call for a Basic Income Guarantee will grow louder and more insistent. Self-driving vehicles will have become increasingly common. Industrial robots will have brought high-end manufacturing back to the US (‘onshoring’). Jobs in higher education, and to some extent primary education, will be increasingly ‘hollowed out’ by online teaching and semi-automated learning. College degrees will bifurcate into clearly distinguished versions: one for largely (by a specified percent of credit hours) having be earned through face-to-face instruction, and another degree for online. While some lingering prejudice may favor graduates with face-to-face degrees, there will be many online-degree success stories among students from rural, impoverished and/or Third World backgrounds whose native intelligence and drive to succeed win them coveted jobs and promising careers.”
A respondent who is self-described as a ‘social innovation orphan’ wrote, No. “We thought that the vacuum cleaner and other advances for the home would save time. It didn’t. Some AI, similar to the washing machines in terms of advances in domestic work-help, will indeed take over jobs. Others will not. Don’t believe the hype. Too many complicated factors to know…what are other economic and environmental factors will color what society looks like? How will they effect the general population in 2025?”
A private law firm partner specializing in telecommunications and Internet regulatory issues wrote, Yes. “The ability of robots/AI to take on many basic tasks/jobs will relentlessly increase. That means that our total output/production may well increase even as the number of people required to generate that production goes down. That will create vexing problems of distribution of wealth/income, as the folks who own the robots etc. will claim entitlement to all or nearly all the production, yet the ability of people to buy that production will be in the aggregate declining. Over time (again, decades, not 11 years) I suspect that there will be a move towards, and an increase in the value of, unique personal-service type jobs. But that will simply highlight the conflict between different groups. I believe it will eventually sort itself out—shorter working hours, more ‘redistribution’ of highly machine-mediated production to people irrespective of ownership status—but it will take quite a while. AI will be part of everyday life even more than it is today. It will be Siri on steroids.”
A professor, academic, sociologist, and early Internet scholar, responded, Yes. “It could be both—yes and no. And then again—the question comes rather late, at a time when automation in the industry is quite advanced anyways. I rather see robotics coming closer to the individual, to the household, in what then seems convenience technology, or body attachments, in-body chips or else.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “Jobs are an artifact of the industrial age. We have to separate the notion of work from that of jobs. Security and war will be changed, manufacturing and other muscle work, intimate tasks like nursing, too.”
A networking engineer employed by one of the largest cable television companies in the US wrote, No. “I don’t think that the necessary machine intelligence will exist by 2025 to replicate human judgment, meaning that it will be unlikely to significantly displace white-collar jobs, and certain blue-collar jobs that require complex, non-repeatable or otherwise difficult-to-automate tasks, but I do see a push for another round of the very repetitive, menial jobs to be displaced by automation. For example, even today I have no idea why the shuttle bus at the airport isn’t automated, why we still have manual transit system trains, staffed toll booths, etc. Those jobs will be lost due to attrition and not re-filled. But likely this will spawn a secondary industry of ‘mechanical turks’ whose job it is to catch the situations where the (relatively stupid) computer doesn’t know what to do. Part of acceptance of computer interaction is generational—there are fewer and fewer people who aren’t used to navigating automated systems, and as that becomes more common, it’ll be easier for companies to apply it to more things. It’s also possible that there will be a premium on human interaction, human-made things, because a machine can do the job and replicate something ‘mostly’ but not quite as well as a human.”
A policy advisor for EDUCAUSE, a nonprofit whose mission is to advance IT in higher education, wrote, No. “Jobs displaced by automation will create new workforce needs for computer and software developers, engineers, and other high-tech roles. I don’t expect that it will be common or widespread; I do expect we will begin to see more demonstrations and pilots.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Robots, digital agents, and AI tools will disrupt jobs that presently involve manual data analysis, storage, and organization. This is a good thing as it will increase overall productivity and economic value. The disruption will start in sophisticated organizations and, even by 2025, many sectors of the economy (including governments) may only be making limited uses of contemporary tools (though one hopes they will have abandoned Windows XP and floppy disks…) The social consequences of this will be to create greater opportunities for creative and communications disciplines—the power of digital agents and AI tools will enable people to do do more faster with data. However, this may not necessarily translate into more jobs in those fields—if the ability to create is more powerful and more ubiquitous, then the scarcity and value of creative works goes down. Economic opportunities will be created for those with skills in curation, brand marketing, social media, as well as in the development and design of AI tools and robotic devices. Ideally, there would be a rich start-up culture around markets for these tools- without undue interference and concentration due to IP issues. AI and robotics will continue to be regular parts of manufacturing, agriculture, and other forms of mass production and will advance significantly in their capability to do jobs in this area. Police, public safety, and the military will also have AI and robotics as ordinary components of their work in 2025. AI and robotics will be slower to impact advanced service professions (law, medicine, teaching).”
A thought leader and principal at a consultancy responded, Yes. “When you consider transportation (i.e. cabs and truck drivers), simple order taking (look at the self-ordering experimented with at Chili’s and Applebees), plus call-in, medical diagnostics, drones and warehousing They will be embedded in the all the above mentioned industries.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “I can’t speculate as to how extensive the disruption will be, but my observation of current trends is that these sort of technological advancements don’t replace jobs at the same rate at which they obviate them. For every creator, manufacturer and maintenance person needed to sustain such systems, you lose dozens of the people whose jobs they are replacing.”
A self-employed digital consultant replied, Yes. “Technology displaces jobs—it serves to automate, challenging people to prove their worth in a Turing sense. There will be no apparent change relative to today because the tech embeds itself to disappear from view (washing machines, for instance—high-tech but not regarded as impinging on our daily life). So we get the same amount of time machine-free as always.”
A New York University professor responded, No. “Focusing the question on technology as you have minimizes the reigning conditions of global capital. will robots displace South Asian industrial workers they way they did North American ones? they could, but current global inequalities have an inertial power if ‘the general population’ = middle class Americans, then perhaps. more likely that machine learning (not quite AI) will have widespread applications in medicine, education, and finance, though wont be widely recognized in popular discourse.”
An anonymous survey participant who works as a cybersecurity policy strategist and consultant replied, Yes. “While new technologies don’t by themselves kill jobs, they can shape the ratio of capital to labor needed by major enterprises. These jobs of the future require high productivity and high skill, and while they will hopefully be made available to the most competitive candidate, they will exclude a segment of the population that isn’t in the top 10 or 1%. This may create new low paid jobs that offset these job losses, but it could also commodify labor in a way that undermines the health of the economy. Because of the expense of hardware, robots will still be much less prevalent than AI by 2025. While high cost sectors like medicine, military, and mining might see robots normalized. I think that the use of intelligent robots for domestic needs or as substitutes for retail clerks or bank tellers is still two more decades away.”
A 25-year veteran of technology research and entrepreneurship now holding the titles of both professor wrote, No. “Applications and devices don’t displace jobs. However, the need to adapt to a changing environment will continue to grow—both for individuals and the organizations and the societies/regulatory environment around them. There will be social consequences if that adaptation does not happen or is dominated by irrelevant concerns. An even larger part of reality will go digital, and we will continue to care increasingly about the digital parts and decreasingly about the physical parts. Communication (both business and personal), transport, logistics will continue to change most. Division of work will further increase, including in the private sector. A lot of menial work (both in businesses and at a personal level) will be moved to robots. Some more work will be recognized as menial and go the same way.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “The history of progress always involves an evolution or revolution in technology and predictably it is always predicted that technology will replace jobs.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “There are always going to need to be areas that need a human’s touch. Even with the advancement of AI, I doubt they will get to a point in the next 11 years that will eliminate human empathy and sensibilities. AI will definitely affect how things happen online and the algorithms with which things are presented to people while browsing the web. I don’t know enough about robotics to make a judgment on it, but with Google’s recent purchase of Boston Dynamics, who knows what they will do in that area of technology. There’s a lot of possibilities, ranging from the helpful to the terrifying, of what doors this could open.”
An anonymous survey respondent wrote, Yes. “I don’t know about self-driving cars by 2025 :) however the domestic and industrial applications of robots will have developed considerably by then. Of course these will displace jobs that previously were done onsite. Whether this also creates jobs will depend on where the robots are made. Probably Germany and Asian countries. It is hard to see the US developing this into a major industry.”
A director at Defense Distributed replied, No. “Only in a luddite universe is this a serious scenario. Amazing this is still given credit as a serious thought.”
An independent researcher and writer working at a major university is the US replied, Yes. “Creating robots, maintaining them, expanding on them will still be skilled work between now and 2025, whereas each deployed robot can theoretically replace 1-10-00s of people. Numbers don’t add up that they’ll be more new jobs created than those erased. New industries and types of work will emerge, but I think the ratio is toward destruction/replacement not new jobs. manufacturing, delivery, harvesting, maintenance, data input, will change dramatically. Commercial enterprises, where cost-per-unit matters will change the most. civil society—citizen engagement, social services, neighborliness, protest—these will change the least.”
An academic leader at the University of Maryland School of Information Studies wrote, Yes. “They will displace jobs and redistribute them across nations and types of workers. On the whole, workers who are well-educated and have learned how to learn will do better than others and countries with a well-educated populace and strong social programs will be more successful. Overall, many previously manual tasks (driving, flying, surgery, etc.) will become safer. AI and robotics will allow more personalized results to be calculated which will enable us to discover deviations from each person’s average and respond in a more fine-grained and, therefore, appropriate manner.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “The advances in automation in manufacturing will likely result in a continued trend towards reduced goods producing jobs but an increase in employment related to the innovation, design, use and overall management of systems used to produce products. Those lacking education and aptitudes to participate in these emerging technical and support occupations risk being left behind. The result can be acceleration of an existing trend towards more bi-modal income distribution with those lacking STEM skills being left behind further. There will be a significant integration of both AI and robotics into the general population ranging from support of common household chores to a plethora of new decision support tools. In general these tools will likely be relatively cost effective by 2025 and accessible to those with adequate education and main stream income levels.”
The founder and leader of a company creating information businesses in emerging markets replied, Yes. “Tools of collective intelligence will create new jobs using those robots to gain control of our environment, get the planet back on track and include all of us. Robots will be part of the Internet of Things, monitoring and filtering will be easier. Robots will be assigned to tasks to revitalize our biosphere and provide access to all, guided by enlightened collective intelligence immersed in complex situations with feedback about externalities.”
An associate professor of history at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada, wrote, No. “Jobs will be displaced in the West, but menial jobs and tech support jobs will just be moved to global south countries—witness what is happening with manufacturing of Apple devices. Driving will be more automated, as well as some household tasks, such as vacuum cleaning. Music streaming and other recommendation services (buying books or clothes, dating sites) will get more sophisticated. On the other hand, hand-made things and services (such as DJing, live music, random encounters) will become more valued.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “The development of equipment and devices and their sales will call for more jobs as will other areas of society, but social efforts will need to be made to introduce and motivate and train for these jobs. ai and robotics will be readily absorbed in all aspects of daily life such as driving and home maintenance and job performance. Communications will expand and more activities will be international. Medical care will improve and more done by robotics and distance communications.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “New jobs have a habit of springing up around new technologies.”
An Internet engineer and machine intelligence researcher responded, Yes. “With the erosion of manufacturing and manual-labour jobs, the underpinning economies of the lower and middle classes have been and will continue to be undermined. Wealth will continue to migrate towards the select few who have control over information resources. The control of information will be markedly enhanced by advances in machine intelligence. The ability of the individual to understand the mechanisms behind the flow of wealth will continue to decrease as automated, machine intelligence based systems become more pervasive. These ‘AI’ systems will access and process information at an unprecedented rate of effectiveness. Allowing information based organizations to predict individual and group activities and preferences with greater accuracy. This will in turn provide these organizations with ever increasing ability to influence—some might say manipulate behaviour. Machine intelligence in the ordinary landscape of the general population will be used to acquire, process and manage information on individuals and groups. Personal preferences and actions will be readily anticipated by AI applications. People will be presented with choices so well tailored to their current needs that they will be difficult to resist. These choices will span all aspects of individual life: work, entertainment, retail purchases, voting…. For the general public, robotic solutions will present themselves in the form of automated solutions for mass services. Transit, public services, retail and banking, select medical procedures…any situation where the economies of scale warrants the displacement of human labour with a more expensive machines. These changes will impact various regions differently. As some regions become poorer, there will be less capital available to invest in public infrastructure, including machine intelligence systems. Personal machine intelligence solutions—such as self-driving cars, robotic assistants, etc. will be available only to the small portion of the population wealthy enough to afford such luxuries. It is not clear that any part of life will remain unchanged, including those specific to biology: sex, reproduction, health, death.”
A university professor and researcher from a large public university in the US wrote, Yes. “I expect that these developments will have the greatest impact in manufacturing and service sectors—for example, intelligent digital agents may make the many people in travel industry redundant. Robotics in manufacturing will displace workers who will have limited options. Not sure about AI since it has a history characterized by fits and starts. AI may become pervasive in online interactions, for example, in customer relations management. Robotics may become embedded in settings where people do repetitive work such as stocking inventory or cleaning buildings. As ubiquitous computing becomes the norm and digital decides become embedded in the environment, think smart homes), it’s hard to think of parts of life that will be unchanged.”
A professor specializing in information studies at the University of Toronto wrote, Yes. “It depends on where these jobs are being created. Are American firms outsourcing the manufacturing to developing/emerging economies—where labour standards remain low? If this is the case then I anticipate a shrinking labour force in North America.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Knowledge workers and skilled labor will not be effected by autonomous devices. Robots and device automation should allow us to expand our thoughts and processes. I foresee transportation to be mainly autonomous. The hours typically spent in commute will be freed to more valuable time spent on solution discovery.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “As the creation of tech jobs and the obvious number unfilled, technology is creating jobs more quickly than we can fill them. Unimaginable new jobs will be created and new ways of acquiring knowledge will have exploded.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “I’ll defer to Vernor Vinge’s assessment of this, but I think that what he calls ‘technological unemployment’ is already beginning. The self-driving car will be the most dramatic improvement, allowing aging baby boomers to stay mobile and on the road.”
A professional designer of human-oriented technological systems wrote, Yes. “The profit motive will drive competition between continents for low priced commodities. The only two responses to this will be to drive deeper and harder into mechanised intelligence or the development of splinter economies built on craftsmanship. The robot transformation of the world will bring on a deeper class structure and deepening of wealth divides, whole communities of people will opt out of the roboted world. Most commodities will in the end be smarter than most users. Most users will fail a Turing test. The challenge for economies will be to have enough cash in the hands of the majority for them to be worthy consumers. Schools will have lost their way in educating people to love curiosity and creativity. They will have bought in to the ‘Knowledge is all’ paradigm and the development of intelligence will have taken a back seat for a full generation.”
A research fellow at the Global Cities Research Institute at RMIT University replied, No. “Technological ‘disruption’ is often overstated, and applied in too simplistic a fashion. There is considerable difference to the complete obsolescence of professions and associated ways of life under, for example, 18th century automation of aspects of the textile industry, and the various employment market adjustments that many contemporary innovations bring about. Self-driving cars and robots in particular are potentially transformative innovations in sectors that are chronically under-resourced today in developed societies—aged-care, rehabilitation and disability services. Hence the introduction of these technologies, even if pervasive, is unlikely to elicit massive change in any one sector, but rather is likely to continue an ongoing evolution towards high-skilled, specialised and ‘adaptive’ forms of labour. There are several—optimistic—trends for AI and robotics in the near-future. One is the ‘commodisation’ of AI and robotic components, particularly as open hardware (e.g. Arduino), which opens important possibilities for small-shop innovators and entrepreneurs. Together with the availability of higher-level programming APIs, this makes the field ripe for kinds of experimentation that occurred in the desktop software markets in the 80’s and 90’s, and in the Web market in the ’00s. The ‘low-hanging fruit’ for AI and robotics are areas of labour that still involve high degrees of routine—as discussed above, special areas of need in the developed world involve domestic assistance for aging populations and other vulnerable groups—but it is also likely that specific niche areas of tertiary sector service industry, such as product delivery, logistics and transportation will undergo further and sometimes radical change. I don’t believe AI and robotics will have a transformative effect on social life as a whole in the near future.”
A senior staff member for one of the leading Internet standards organizations replied, No. “New inventions kill old jobs and allow for the creation of new ones, in different populations, so comparison are not possible. Finding information is still hard, the tools are hard to use, so I expect all that to change. I expect people to travel less and use more and more remote communication, as it becomes a much richer experience (immersion, 3D, tactile, etc.).”
A university professor wrote, Yes. “They will maximize the profits, thus will be developed to a high degree.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Jobs will change, following a trend already started in the digital arena.”
A self-employed programmer and Web developer wrote, No. “People will always find ways to innovate and at some point it will become less expensive to employ people to make goods and services rather than the new technological advances. AI and robotics may make what is unsafe or simply complex now, more safe and less complex. We might wonder how we accepted so many car accidents in 2013 and wonder why we even bothered to perform the necessary but menial task of, say, parking.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “AI will continue to grow but people don’t want to lose jobs so they will control the growth of AI so that robotic devices do no displace more jobs than they create. By 2025 I’d guess people will have robot butlers and devices that clean around the house. Robots in manufacturing will also increase.”
A leader of an NGO based in Nairobi, Kenya, responded, No. “There will be increased use of ICT devices with more personalized services, but I don’t think development on digital agents or artificial intelligence will replace human involvement. Rather there will be betterment of computers to increase their accuracy in analyzing data, especially in the health, security, and communications sectors. Uses will be in diagnostics and data analysis.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, “This is probably the wrong question to ask and reveals the bias of the survey. for example, why should we assume, with the Internet, already opening a vast chasm of alternative means to ‘make a living,’ that a monied class-structured unequal economy will be the driving force in another decade? Will a ‘job,’ something we have been told technology will save us from since the beginning of the industrial revolution, even exist? Recent transformations to jobs and income, even money, have occurred in the last few years/decades. why would these changes stagnate just because we now have an Internet of Things that has driven these changes into the stratosphere?“
A university professor responded, Yes. “As the technology develops it seems likely that the market calculus that makes hiring a human more cost-effective than automation will also shift in a wide range of industries. Increasingly workers are not only competing with one another (on an increasingly global scale, in many industries), but with the advances in technology. The trend so far has been that automation does not create as many jobs as it replaces. On the plus side, automation may cut back on human drudgery, but at the expense of jobs. As this tendency develops we might have to rethink the way in which we understand the economic and social role of labor—and its connection to the distribution of the benefits of automation. A farm or company that can produce its goods automatically will not have anyone to sell those goods to if the automation process eliminates paying jobs. The history of industrialization has anticipated this outcome in a variety of ways—but we do some to be moving closer to that point at which automation might relieve humans of both their toil and of the system whereby their toil was the only way they could gain access to the fruits of production.”
An associate professor of sociology at California State University-Northridge wrote, No. “They’ll create and empower newer (though not necessarily bettter) jobs. AI’s already part of the ordinary landscape of the general population, ‘they’ (and you?) just may not realize that. Robotics will spread over the next two to eight years. But self-driving cars and robots? Those are still 15+ years from widespread use.”
A university professor responded, Yes. “They will have displaced more jobs, but on net created more wealth. That is, they will eliminate some not-so-great jobs and create other jobs that are better (though fewer). But technology is not responsible for job loss, government economic policy (and the lack of more stimulus) is. It will play a limited role (e.g., at gas stations, or operating rooms), but you could easily go a day without seeing them as part of your life.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “I’m not clear that the absolute number of jobs will decrease, but the nature of jobs will certainly change from replaceable labor to technical skills (programming, maintenance).”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “AI and robots will largely remain overhyped and underused. Industry will use more robots to displace people on the assembly line, where robots will do the stupid and repetitive tasks and heavy lifting etc. A few household gadgets will be available to the affluent. But we will likely see a return to more human interaction.”
A software research and development professional for a major software organization wrote, No. “My impression is that the technologies listed are being applied to create new applications. AI and robotics already are part of the ordinary landscape, in limited ways. Siri, cars that parallel park, android, Google.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “From a global perspective, the elimination of unskilled or low skilled workforce is already underway in the midst of uncontrolled population growth and ‘globalization.’ The trend is not likely to be drastically altered by advances in robotics and AI. Will impoverished and powerless masses continue to passively accept or will there be an explosion? The fate of the various ‘occupy’ movements so far tend to show that the system is able to control the situation. Until ? Which general population ? In 2009 some 20% of the world population had no access to electricity, 30% in rural areas (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011). Assuming energy will still be available at a reasonable cost for the not too poor segment of the population in better off countries, more and more objects in daily logistics may become more ‘autonomous”, e.g. automatic shopping for basic supplies ordered by fridges or cars paying for parking. Meanwhile their happy owners will become more and more dependent.”
A research fellow at Danube University Krems in Austria replied, No. “AI applications and robots will affect certain areas more than others. In some cases, AI/robots will reduce quality and to ensure effectiveness human workers will still be necessary. Workers will have to be re-trained to have the skills to operate such robots, and that workers will be re-trained to do their own work better since AI/robots will not be able to do their work after all. I think there is already a call for more quality and awareness, for a return to human-made quality. In addition, some applications will simply be too complicated for extensive use. There will be a greater use in government, public administration, traffic and health sectors.”
A university-employed researcher and teacher commented, Yes. “Jobs will be different. Low-level, repetitive jobs will be largely gone.”
A lecturer in media and communications wrote, No. “2025 is not very far in the future and a robot overlord society hasn’t happened yet, so there might be a little bit more but it won’t be drastically different. A little more in manufacturing and maybe as healthcare assistance.”
An engineer at an Internet company responded, No. “Sorry, but it is too hard to be definitive here.”
The president of a German Internet trade association and founder of various ISPs wrote, No. “History has shown, that technological progress only had short term effects (50 years or less), so I believe, that any technology will have negative impact. But new developments create new jobs and new opportunities this is why I believe it will be balanced over the time.”
A professor at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, Japan, wrote, No. “This is not about Yes/No. It’s a question of what jobs get displaced, and so on. As an example, self-driving cars will displace Taxi drivers. For those who think that the long hours a Taxi driver puts in are tough, that displacement may be a good thing. Self-driving cars may change a lot. Car renting and sharing will be way easier, and thus more popular, which will be a good thing. On the other hand, spending long hours in cars will be easier (because you can sleep or work or watch a movie while driving), which is not necessarily a good thing.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “While theoretically I believe this might actually happen, the time span till 2025 is too short for any such drastic change to have taken place. Machine-translation information terminals and services unmanned public transport possibly overtaking some of secretarial work.”
A self-employed consultant and solution architect wrote, No. “The nature of employment may change dramatically in concert with changes in career training, craft outlets and opportunities for value contribution. The fundamentals of earth science, biology and physics will remain adherent to ‘traditional’ laws while the features of human communication and information management will prove volatile.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Progress will be initially slower than people expect. The self driving cars will barely be there by 2025, for legal reasons. Progress in service jobs will be slower than expected, although intermediate components are likely to be outsourced as much as possible.”
An anonymous respondent said, Yes. “This has been a long standing trend and it will continue. The risk is more social inequality of haves and have-nots—that one day could lead to social disruption. More focus on math and science education may mitigate some of the negative social impacts. Our youth will need to see that they have a future.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The economic incentive for development in this area is primarily to reduce labor costs and the vulnerabilities that come with human involvement. Re: the latter, think: Automated system administration vs. Ed Snowden. In any event, the outcome will be fewer employment opportunities, and not just for unskilled workers.”
An information scientist for a major non-profit research organization known for its futures work wrote, Yes. “I fear this will be the case. It looks like automation has a good chance displacing low-skilled jobs.”
A leader with the School of Information and Library Science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill replied, No. “New kinds of jobs will be created—at the very least selling, training, fixing, upgrading—just as with other technologies. There will be a lot less by 2025 than technologists predict. Having a remote-control helicopter for play is a lot different than your own drone.”
A university professor and researcher wrote, Yes. “I have absolutely no idea where the jobs will be in 2025. I imagine that anything that can be better accomplished through a decision structure will be accomplished through AI entities, but I also see a growing value of the work that can better be accomplished by people. Right now robotics are an explosive interest, as are big data architects, but these things provide large scale solutions for large scale problems and leave quite a bit to be accomplished along the edges and margins. Let’s take for example the automated help interfaces that are so abundant these days. They are mostly more of a source of frustration than a workable solution to the problems of customer service. The customer service winners are the people staffing Twitter monitoring and connecting with customers in interactive environments of all kinds. Detecting complaints is an AI problem. Sending the complains to the correct customer service entity is an AI problem. But customer service itself is a human problem.”
A consultant for a major US technology-consulting firm replied, Yes. “Automation eliminates jobs. Anything that can be automated will be. Jobs based on pattern matching, operating equipment, etc. are at risk. This will cause a global elimination of middle-class jobs.”
A professor at Widener University Technology responded, No. “They should create more jobs. This has been the history of technological change. There will be much less physical demanding jobs but more intellectual jobs.”
The director of creative services for a non-profit in Washington, DC, replied, No. “I think this is hard to predict, but my sense is that it will be more or less a wash. The better questions are about global (and US) population per se. Not specific types of employment within those groups. I disagree with Ray Kurzweil’s notion (The Age of Spiritual Machines) that there will be an explosion of artificial intelligence, expanding geometrically. I would expect that the costs of developing AI will continue to outweigh the benefits. At least, for the foreseeable future.”
A lawyer and law professor wrote, Yes. “Anything that can be automated will be, even legal advice. Creation and caring largely unaffected.”
A doctoral student at Endicott College responded, No. “We do so little manufacturing in the US that robotics will have little impact (far from the impact seen in the 1960s and 70s). If we can restart manufacturing in America and be the ones building machines we could see advancement in the job market in relation to robotics. Programmers are essentials—current focus on STEM and easy access to computers and games is breeding a global generation of workers who can create the applications for use of AI and robotics. AI will mean smarter smartphones and communication systems. For example, I can get a text message when we’re low on milk (determined by grocery store shopper card data calculation based on frequency of milk purchases) as I happen to be nearing the corner store (GPS). Robotics may make household tasks different (not necessarily better or easier). When I get home and place the fresh milk in the refrigerator, I won’t have a revolving shelf rotating groceries for me, but when the old milk carton is empty, I might drop it into a compactor/recycling sorter machine in the garage that weighs and packages units for disposal and notifies the recycling truck that a paper/cardboard unit needs to be picked up (fewer stops for the company if they only stop at houses that have the right number of units ready for pick up).”
A digital producer with a major American news network wrote, Yes. “Companies will build robots in factories, etc., to save money, i.e. all-automated checkouts in stores but real people continuing to monitor.”
A principal research scientist at a university-affiliated research and innovation center replied, No. “The complexity of these systems will still mandate the need for human control and/or oversight. We have been here before. AI was the panacea 30 years ago and never matured. The state-of-the-art in AI is still less functional than most 8-year-olds.”
A staff member at the Internet Society wrote, No. “Standards wars will likely dictate how this all sorts out. Industry will not be aligned. Robotics will grow, but people need time to integrate them into their daily/work lives.”
A senior policy adviser for a major US Internet service provider replied, Yes. “Virtually all customer service work involving telephonic and online contact with human beings will be rendered unnecessary by better communications and computing services and by AI. Vast amounts of manufacturing, maintenance, and other lower-skill jobs will give way to robots. The nation will have failed to make the necessary changes in either its education system or its commitment to promote economic and social equality, so the impacts on those with lesser skills, training, and motivation will be dramatic, with some socially disruptive results. Changed greatly: Transportation (a huge shift away from automobile ownership, more Uber-type services using a larger percentage of self-driving vehicles, far fewer human hands in package/freight processing and delivery) Changed somewhat: Provision of health and medical care (more reliance on both centralized- and self-monitoring); manufacturing (great leaps forward in 3D printing and other forms of production). Changed least (relatively): Restaurant and fast food industries; construction; the arts; professional sports.”
A doctoral student in information science at the Universidade Estadual Paulista, in Sao Paolo, Brazil, wrote, Yes. “Robots and automatization will only release qualified personnel from heavy duties. But big masses of unqualified people will still be available, but now, competing with machines. Wages will reduce as well as labor protection in advanced countries. In undeveloped countries the situation will remain the similar as today’s. Big masses of poor people will suffer starvation and pandemics in developing countries. Robots will change mainly productive life in plants and corporations, and also in military tasks. General population will have toys and electrodomestics in developed countries, and in developing countries will still keep people instead of robots, but with cheaper wages.”
A university professor wrote, Yes. “Having more robots for manual jobs is inevitable—e.g.. Google delivery by drones, bomb explosion units, car assembly lines, shopping and delivery, more toys for kids, gardening activities and house and office cleaning, and more.”
A business school professor and technology futurist replied, Yes. “Technologies that automate manual processes displace jobs almost by definition. It may be that there are more jobs in the world of tomorrow than today, but that won’t be as direct a consequence of the automation technologies as the job losses. I doubt self-driving cars will be widespread by 2025, just because of the fear, litigation risk, and regulatory changes involved, although over a 25- to 50-year horizon they seem inevitable. But if you take things like education, customer service, and healthcare, there are many millions of jobs ripe for displacement by intelligent agents and other automated mechanisms.”
A researcher for a major US computer software and hardware company wrote, No. “This is a common misconception. If you read the econ literature, the evidence points to new technology creating new, different kinds of jobs. There is little to no correlation on unemployment and technological advancement. Manufacturing has already been changed drastically by robotics. Transportation is probably next.”
A minority rights advocate and media analyst, teacher, and journalist responded, No. “Some jobs will of course disappear, but the programmers, designers, implementers, marketers and sellers will continue to be a huge if changing industry. The whole industry of responding to the flooding and derangements coming from the environmental shifts will be a big new job area. Creating drinkable water from salt water for the deserts, mitigating the flooding of major cities due to the sea rise, figuring out how to manage the huge traffic in the air that will replace earthbound travel (much of it automated, i.e. drones), development of the formerly frozen wastes, space businesses and exploration, these are all huge areas for job development. They will be parts of the ordinary landscape for the general US population, but I don’t think Afghanistan or Guinea Bissau will have the same experiences directly. Although of course they will be under the flightpath of all the drones etc. Unchanged: the artisanal, high-end quality that people want to get if they can afford it in everything from food to cars to personal services. Changed: sales and payment interactions, travel and goods delivery, delivery of medical, governmental, child care and other services at the mid-income level and below.”
A journalist, editor, and leader of an online news organization wrote, No. “Technology disrupts. But at least until the singularity, there will always be a market for things humans can do for each other. Typically, this will depend on socioeconomics. The rich will spend almost no time doing things that can be automated; the poor will continue as is, more or less, although with superior communication abilities.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “Absolutely. We will need to reduce the standard work week to below 25-30 hours to stay anywhere near 15% unemployment (in the US). It will influence nearly every aspect of people’s lives.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, No. “I expect that they will have replaced some jobs, but new areas always open up for other employment, and these will balance the scale. Very much so. I would suspect that much of what we interact with online will be AI-based. At the moment you have basic phone systems that allow you to say what option you would like—but I would say much of how we interact with companies/the government will be automated in a far more sophisticated manner. I also imagine that a lot of mundane work that can be automated will be—warehousing (Amazon and Zara are already doing this), etc.”
An anonymous respondent who works at an organization specializing in information security education wrote, No. “According to knowledgeable sources, the number of computer scientist graduating in 10 years will only be able to fill 30% of the jobs available.”
An Internet business consultant wrote, Yes. “More people will be jobless and there will be serious social upheavals as robots replace people. The areas affected most will be retail and healthcare.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “Robots will continue taking all the manufacturing jobs in developed countries. Unemployment will raise to levels never seen before. Crime and poverty will be the biggest challenge in most major cities but wealthy owners of big manufacturing companies won’t care about it; they will blame on the government. Street violence and riots will not be uncommon; police abuse will be a need for survival of a decaying system. Developing countries might benefit from robots and automation as developed countries do today but unemployment will worsen the aging social problems. Some small countries might surrender in the hands of mafia. 10 years is not enough time for robots to take over the world, but it will be common to see autonomous robots doing some kind of job while other jobs will still be performed manually or automated in a non-intelligent way.”
A leader at the Network Information Center in Mexico wrote, No. “Not at all, markets still need for customer services, people are still paying for it and it is a value added service which most of the time is provided by a human being.”
A professor and researcher from the University of Toronto wrote, Yes. “There will be more jobs displaced by 2025, but by 2050 the balance will be restored as more people train and acquire knowledge economy skills. Change depends on to what extent the economy has rebounded and grown likely more in Asia—China, etc.”
A professor of education responded, Yes. “The ideas of ‘full employment’ and ‘blue-collar jobs’ are so Obama-ish and 20th century. By 2025 the realms that may be relatively unchanged are spiritual life, family life, sport, and sex!”
An information science professional and leader for a national association wrote, No. “This is just a little too Jetsons and Desk Set. Most jobs that could be replaced by AI or robotics have been done already. In terms of day-to-day living, AI and robotics could easily be something that only the 1% can afford or have access to. In fields like medicine, though, advances have the potential to help everyone.”
A professor of political science at the University of Louisville replied, No. “Jobs always shift as the economy advances. Someone will have to write the code and software to make these things work and to manage them. Smart cars will be common though unlikely that most people will have shifted to driverless. There will be cleaning robots and smart networks in homes to manage resources.”
A futurist and Internet activist wrote, No. “Robots might be helpful in alleviating us of some of our most menial jobs that suck the life out of anyone who does them, except the few who love them. We’ll have to invest more in education and skills that are better for most people and allow them to lead more engaged, happy lives. I doubt we’ll recognize the change when it is happening. Robots are already doing a lot everywhere.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “As mass-production will be automatized, the highly skilled will be more likely to get trained into being flexible enough to operate in a number of jobs otherwise open to other mid to highly educated people. interpersonal relations will most probably remain unchanged (though altered), while domestic and professional work will be massively affected.”
The publisher for a large scholarly society specializing in digital communication replied, Yes. “They will have displaced more jobs, if for no reason than that the jobs they will displace will be those of skilled and unskilled workers, and the jobs they will create will be those of engineers. They already are: cars today increasingly have self-driving aspects (though not a fully implementation) and robotics are making their way into the home via vacuum cleaners and the like. They’ll be much more common in these kinds of roles. Beyond that, I’d hesitate to guess.”
The chief privacy officer for a major US technology company wrote, No. “Innovation shifts jobs, by type and by geography, but it is other economic and social factors that cause overall contraction and expansion. AI will pervade everything we do, and will create the opportunity for those who can avail themselves of the tools to greatly expand their ability to enrich their lives.”
A creator of non-profit media content replied, Yes. “There is no thing that indicates we’ll invest in the upgraded skills needed when lowest-level jobs are replaced.”
The CEO of one of the largest US private foundations focused on the future of communications wrote, No. “I don’t know any reason why this should be a zero-sum game.”
An anonymous survey respondent replied, Yes. “The easy example I’ve seen recently is the automation of revenue systems for bridges and roads: no need for toll-takers now that we have EZPass and governments can require it, and no one to be accountable when the charge against your credit card at the end of the month seems wrong. The mechanization of warehouse operations is another area that is costing jobs for people who can’t easily find another. Many areas where it’s obvious that mechanization is happening today won’t advance as fast as people think they will, such as some forms of transportation, but the trend will be clear. The utopian view is that new jobs will be created as well, but it’s hard to see there will be as many jobs tending machines as there were before the machines came. Many of the jobs created directly by the expansion of AI and robotics will be in assorted forms of ‘customer service’ and programming of devices. It’s pleasant to think that many others will be in creative and intellectual areas. Some retail will remain as high-touch—restaurants, higher-end stores, live entertainment in various forms—but it will be a luxury. Commodity services will eliminate those jobs and interactions to reduce costs. People will still spend time with their children, but with even more devices to mediate than today, and there will still be plenty of ‘have-nots’ in the world who do things for themselves but many developing areas will sidestep earlier first world development stages entirely, as in much of Africa and mobile/internet service.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Not in personal use but within manufacturing and industry and assembly within manufacturing environments.”
A self-employed digital communications consultant wrote, Yes. “We will continue to see a loss of low-end, manual labor jobs and a shifting as people try to retrain themselves to fit into higher-end jobs. But ultimately, those jobs are limited. I think, in the end, there will be a net loss that works against blue-collar workers. I think it will drastically change the manufacturing and service industries.”
The CEO of a consultancy dealing with top-level Internet domains responded, No. “One step forward, two steps back. For every item we try to automate, we create other issues either known or unknown. Self parking cars will advance; more mundane activities will be more efficient with more and more computer controls and efficiency built in. I don’t expect huge jumps in technology changing our basic activities.”
A professor of education at a major US research university wrote, No. “It will disrupt jobs that were replaced, yes, but create new types of positions as well.”
The principal engineer for an Internet of Things development company replied, No. “As with all technology advances, a certain number of jobs will be eliminated. But if we continue to educate our kids then they should be able to adjust (as in previous generations) by creating new industries that require human creativity and ingenuity. Some form of limited AI will probably be an important part of people’s lives as many mundane electronic tasks can be done more efficiently by AIs.”
A behavioral researcher specializing in design in voting and elections wrote, No. “All other things being peaceful (the US isn’t engaged in any major conflicts abroad or at home), there’s a good chance that there will be more jobs than ever available, and that unemployment will be the lowest it has ever been. But for that scenario to play out, policymakers and corporations have to look beyond the next quarter or even the next year. And so do schools. Because the new jobs will demand skills and training that we’re not teaching now. We’ll see a *lot* of bad prototypes and stupid ideas over the next 10 years, and then some company or person will come along and break through all that with something remarkable that changes everything. It’s a cycle we’ve seen before. AI and robotics are already starting to be part of the ordinary landscape for upper-class Americans. AI is built in to smart devices and there are robotic household helpers like vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers that are not uncommon. These people are early adopters because they can afford gadgets. I work in a field where people talk about designing the user experience (UX). Right now, UX people talk about ‘computers’ and ‘devices’ because they were taught about human-computer interaction in school. But real people, consumers, users don’t think that way at all. Real people live lives that have rich relationships that are mediated by technology that they’re not even aware of. Mobile phones, for example, have become appliances. Tablet computers aren’t computers, either. They’re appliances or gadgets. That these things will get smarter and more automated just makes sense. The noise level will probably go up, because more people will be interacting with their devices with voice commands. New social norms will eventually come out of that, which in turn will color perceptions of private and public.”
A senior administrator at the University of Maryland-Baltimore replied, No. “While there may indeed be a disruption, more different jobs will be created. The challenge will be that our education system may not keep pace hence we will have a group of perhaps blue-collar workers who will not have the education and expertise to work in these new jobs. We need to disrupt our educational system. In order for AI, robotics to become part of the ordinary landscape, they have to be seamless and non-apparent like electricity or the phone. They just have to work. Smart houses, diagnostics, just-in-time information for decision-making. But people shouldn’t have to worry about them or fuss with them and then they will be accepted as the norm.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Entire new industries in support of these advances are likely to create more jobs than are lost. Workplaces will remain pretty much the same. It is in the home where there will be significant and hopefully beneficial advances. That will proliferate. Security will be a big use for it.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “AI tools can never entirely replace the human capacity for critical and creative thinking. However, AI applications can and probably will replace jobs in our society that may or may not benefit from having a computer perform those functions. I think a large portion of service jobs may be taken over by AI. Ticket clerks at movie theaters, bank tellers, automated clerks in most service positions. Once we being to program the software to manage intelligent response to human interaction, we may find that simpler tasks may be taken over completely by AI.”
A technology risk and cybersecurity expert for a US-based financial services association wrote, “This is where ‘big data’ comes into play. With more data and the ability to analyze it, individuals and organizations will come up with new products that could help anticipate when customers want or need things, better manage risks (e.g., ‘black swan’ events), or protect society from those that might want to do us harm. I don’t know what these specific products will be but I am confident that this will be an area of innovation. Yes. We have already observed how automation reduces employment, creates gaps in skills needed to be valued workers in multiple industries including the automotive industry. While it may be more efficient and leads to global trade and move complex supply chains, it also creates new challenges and problems for individuals and society. One of these challenges/problems is the gap in the skills and training that is necessary for workers to be valued. Another is increasing income inequality between those that have the valued skills and employed and those who do not and are unemployed or underemployed. Unless industry and government steps in to provide the necessary training, this could lead to greater political unrest. It will be pervasive. Just look at how quickly the airlines industry has automated the process of booking flights. I fly regularly and the only person I ever engage in human contact is the person who scans the tickets at the gate and the flight attendants who offer drinks. Another example is how financial services have become much more automated. To save money (and to be competitive) companies and governments will have to automate. However, there will be functions that will need some human interaction such as in the sales process or troubleshooting a problem.”
A deputy director with an organization that studies and analyzes US Homeland Security replied, No. “It is entirely possible that robotics will begin a new revolution like the industrial or information revolutions that would shift jobs but create more in the aggregate. It will become as ubiquitous as small electric motors in the 1980s and ‘90s and processors in the 21st century. The biggest change will be at home, in transportation and in service industries like banking.”
A program manager for an international nonprofit that promotes access to electronic resources in developing and transition countries replied, No. “This is illusionary fear that comes with every technological innovation. It will just change and transform types of jobs, rather than displace them. Also by 2025 we still will have the whole range of different technological solutions used across the countries and globally, because it is naive to believe that businesses and organisations and people will have enough resources needed acquire most advanced tools. We can also expect some movement to stay ‘robot- and AI-free.’ In personal life most changes can be expected in the entertainment and leisure activities, art expression, probably also in routine housework areas, like cleaning, heating, etc.”
An information science professional replied, Yes. “As everyday life becomes more expensive, companies are looking for ways to cut back in order to make profits. As technology becomes stronger and less expensive to create and maintain, companies will likely make the choice to switch from human workers to technology in order to remain competitive. The result of this will be more people out of work and relying on social services to survive or being forced to take jobs that are beneath their educational level. We can see this happening now and I fear it will only get worse.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. ‘There will be 95% disruption. Teaching will be Web-based in schools (which might not be a bad outcome) and teachers will be guides on the side supervising and oversight of youth under 18 in the hours their parents are working. Courses will be automatically ‘differentiated’ for higher achievers as well as provide remedial coursework for lower achievers and all data will be collected for dissemination to stakeholders and student accountability. Medical personnel will be leveraged via the web. Personal assistants to help you take a bath, eat, and potty, things that cannot be done with a robot will increase. Low wage non-professionals will proliferate in medicine. Robots will do surgery and possibly remotely along with examinations and evidence based assessments. I would love to have a robot car so I could actually have a drink at a far away venue. Human creativity will be highly valued along with thinking across silos of learnings and information. Ordinary landscape of the general population 25% Some fields and specialties 100% Customer services will continue to become more automated and return back to American bases from India and the like because the costs will be less for programmer access, upgrades, reliability, dependability, and understanding the American customer expectations and culture be the contact by telephone or internet. Food groceries will still have human workers to restock the fruits and vegetables. Restaurants will continue to have human chefs to taste and prepare. Lawyers will continue to lose support services wherein the cost recovery is difficult necessitating they become their own support experts in research. Legal libraries will become even more digital and discovery faceted to find connections with concepts unable to be connected by any one human searching. A lot of cost effectiveness everywhere, although many blue-collar jobs will disappear. Your barely literate landscaper will still have plenty of hands on gardening to do and likewise Childcare workers. Brick and mortar libraries will become the new community centers for F2F interactions, workshops, entertainment, lectures, meetings, leisure. Makerspaces and Techshops will also fill that human need to interact, and create rather than simply consume. Libraries will get their interlibrary loan services more in line with human demand for loans through mail via the WorldCat catalog locating of borrowing materials. Amazon will continue to save time and money for consumers consuming. Community and home gardens will become another F2F human interactivity, recreation, entertainment location as well as supply healthful, unGMO’d produce for homemade meals. Recreational activities requiring a human eye for safety like the ski lift operator will continue to be outsourced to overseas students seeking low wage work while visiting the country. The detailer at the car wash will still exist although the washer is an automated drive through with robots. Your tax preparer will be supplied with all of your purchases and donations data automatically with the codes you’ve assigned for the expedited tax returns filed digitally. The local bakery will still prepare your cakes and delicate hand applied icings with a human touch. Several R2D2’s will circulate as waitstaff at your catered party. Sex, kissing, and human touch will be human-to-human as the epitome of the most satisfying experience of such.”
A self-employed author, researcher, and consultant wrote, No. “The job market is changing. More persons are entering the workforce as sophisticated manipulators of technology. We will need more of these highly qualified people in order to continue expanding our computer-mediated devices. just as the availability and affordability of smart phones, tablets, flat media screens, alarm systems, and hybrid cars are slowly changing how we live, robotic devices including self-driving cars will do the same to our buying habits.”
A US federal government employee commented, No. “I think they will replace no/low skill, repetitive jobs.”
An employee of the Network Information Center wrote, No. “Robotic advances and AI will obviously make tremendous headway by 2025, but there will be several highly visible screw-ups that result from these advances, which will generate widespread skepticism about how broadly AI can be used effectively. Note: these screw-ups will be the result of flawed decision-making logic that a reasonable human being would disagree with, which will create a significant backlash against an automated and programmed world. I believe the aspects of life that society demands should be managed via face-to-face contact with a trusted human being will be unchanged—e.g., medicine, therapy, education, food service, transportation, and law enforcement come to mind. Industries that manage rote processes in which only exceptions would need to be vetted by a human—e.g., government, financial/banking—will have more AI/robotics influence.”
An anonymous respondent commented, No. “Robots and digital tools will replace much of the more tedious aspects of both white- and blue-collar jobs but this will eliminate much of the entry level work in many fields. While this may allow for less experienced workers to shine and prove competence it will also make it more difficult to get your foot in the door at the entry level of many careers, most significantly white-collar. I don’t really feel that true AI will be achieved by 2025 but an advanced facsimile should be available. This facsimile will be AI to all intents and purposes except for being capable of advanced independent thought.”
A researcher and graphic designer replied, Yes. “By 2025, those building prototypes and programming robotic devices will not be just a select ‘Silicon Valley’ few. More young people entering the job market will already have a grasp on software design. Where jobs will be up in the area of technology, I do feel that other jobs will be eliminated by technology. We are seeing that already with robots acting as grocery clerks at grocery stores, getting a tank of gas at a gas station/fast food restaurant without ever talking to a person who is an agent of the establishment of where we are spending our money and DIY robotic car washes, etc.”
A retired information science professional wrote, Yes. “Robotics has already made inroads in what was blue-collar jobs in manufacturing. It has replaced workers on the line in factories that make cars, industrial equipment, farm equipment and shipping just to name a few. Entry level jobs are the most affected. Jobs that did not require even a high school diploma are disappearing along with the accompanying low wages. Older workers without skills are being displaced and have little or no income at this point. Jobs in the fishing industry, transportation, and the restaurant businesses were hard hit. This will continue to take a toll on our economy. Many factory jobs do not require a college education but do require specialized training. The trade jobs today require technology and math. Even construction workers need to know how to read blueprints and need to know how to use a computer on the site. There is hardly a job out there that doesn’t require some interaction with a computer. Workers in fast-food businesses need to know how to use the cooking equipment which is automated and how to run a computerized cash register. Even mechanics need to know how to read and use the diagnostic computers that are used on cars today. Probably only tradesmen like plumbers, electricians, highway workers and maybe carpenters have the least interaction with computers. White-collar workers are experiencing layoffs due to increasing reliance on sophisticated software that is available. Automated administrative tasks can reduce the need for bookkeepers, receptionists, suppliers, salespeople etc. While the use of sophisticated software may not eliminate all of the people in these departments, it requires fewer people to take on tasks that keep a business running. It may not seem like a lot of people but multiply a handful of people across X-number of businesses and it adds up to a lot of white-collar workers being displaced. I think that there is a statistic that says for every new job created or filled, four more jobs are created (multiplier effect in goods and service sectors). The reverse is probably true also. While our economy is slowing showing signs of recovery, people who lost their jobs whether white-collar or blue-collar may never find new jobs and this will have an enormous effect on our future economy and the financial needs of their families.”
The executive director of a mid-sized public library said, Yes. “Major changes await in the coming decade. Entry level positions in the transport, materials handing, security, food service, defense, and cleaning industries will be filled with robots leaving many of these persons displaced and lacking the skills needed to move into other positions or industries. As for social consequences—expect to see greater separation between those with education and resources and those without as robots displace them from the workforce. This will create varying degrees of social upheaval.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “This has always been the fear and reality of computers. Ultimately few if any service jobs will be safe from robots. The new jobs will be in their design, manufacturing, marketing, sales, maintenance, repair, and disposal. They’ll be everywhere, as smartphones are today. Cash registers, restaurants, landscaping, driving, gas stations, etc. Everywhere.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “All of these will happen but I think the impact on jobs will be less than people think. New jobs we can’t imagine will appear. The real problem is that people who loose jobs to new technologies will probably not be qualified/trained for the new jobs. In large metro areas, the self driving cars will to some extent replace cabs, busses and delivery vehicles—including things like parts deliveries to things like car dealers. In terms of deliveries, robotics will supplement the self driving vehicles. Wearable technology will catch on with younger people and those with disabilities—that technology will increasingly be personalized and responsive to the individual. Many of these technologies will not be present or acceptable in less urban areas until after 2025.”
An information science professional at the College of the Bahamas wrote, Yes. “We have seen ‘self-service’ become the norm. Telephone interchanges with ‘help’ desks are driven by yes or no answers. This will continue. There will be a greater need with properly trained people with screwdrivers to maintain service.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Advances will shift jobs from blue-collar to white-collar, but I don’t believe we will see a net job loss. Factory and assembly jobs ‘taken’ by robots and AI tools will mean more positions for skilled workers to repair, create and design these same implements. I believe that automated service technology (such as self check-out machines in grocery stores and do-it-yourself cashiers at fast food restaurants) will improve and become the norm rather than the exception, but I don’t think the general public will be enjoying the services of robot butlers or self-driving cars. These will remain the domain of the very wealthy. I do think it’s possible we’ll all get used to new drone applications.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, Yes. “To start with you are assuming that there are jobs that these devices/agents can do now that would displace a person in the workforce. I don’t see the white-collar positions being replaced in most instances. I do see the technology applied in the manufacturing, security and automotive industries. On TV, the world witnessed a drone delivering a package for Amazon recently—that could have far reaching implications in the shipping world and may supplant the need for FedEx, UPS and further erode the USPS, but the cost may outweigh the benefit. It took the public a while to realize that the Internet is just another tool and does not replace human interaction or contact. I think the same can be said for the technological advances listed in the question. The fear of what ‘could’ happen to jobs is often not the reality.”
A market researcher who also does usability testing for sites and applications responded, No. “There will be more white-collar jobs, and ‘blue-collar’ will need to shift to technical and mechanical support of these tools.”
A business professional who works in banking observed, No. “Technology will continue to advance and manufacturing jobs will become more scarce, but the service industry and professional jobs will continue to grow. There will be less human interaction as people rely more and more on technology.”
A freelance science/medical writer and communications director for a state government agency wrote, Yes. “It has already happened. The lower economic social classes and low-income workers will continue to feel the brunt of this trend, and soon white-collar and professional workers will as well. Social interaction among fellow employees will be more difficult as we turn to increased use of telecommuting and teleconferencing and a growing number of people will have to hold multiple jobs to make ends meet. Many basic jobs could be performed by AI/robots by 2025. For example, in the healthcare field, robots are now dispensing medications to patients; robots will clean floors and take over materials handling tasks, in addition to an increased reliance on robots to perform simple and complex surgeries. However, I’d love to have a single Roomba to mop my kitchen and bath floors as well as vacuum the hardwood floors and carpeting.”
A social worker for a non-profit replied, Yes. “The Earth has humans, society is built upon our strengths and intelligence. If we remove ourselves from the equation then we will languish. Already with in 2013 we have seen how automated, AI, digital agents have taken away and removed the human portion in such white-collar and blue-collar jobs in warehouses, manufacturing jobs, etc. This has displaced humans, taken jobs away (i.e. livelihood) if we continue down this path there will be likely more humans who are removed from equation. What are they to do then? Our society revolves around money, if humans are not working and the government is not interested in listening to our woes then what will people do; how will they survive? I foresee that the ordinary landscape will be inundated by AI and robotics. They will be integrated well into every part of life. I think day-to-day life will be almost fully integrated. Such as domestics, safety, factory, manufacturing, etc. Any jobs that may incur harm to the worker, any job that is remedial, any job that no one wants to do. The jobs that the people with limited education, limited experience holds. The low-wage paying jobs. Those will be the first to go.”
A new-media communications specialist at a public university commented, No. “There will always be a need for people, and with these specific robots and advancements, though growing rapidly, will always be changing. We will need to have people to repair them, manage them, sell them—the kind of workforce however will change. We will need more technology jobs and growth will be in that sector. Not sure what color collar that is! I predict home management systems, home energy, remote alarms, monitoring, I see this technology growing in classrooms—the teaching profession is already in danger. Mass transportation—not by 2025. This technology looks promising but has to be, pardon the pun, road tested. If these systems were hacked, if there was a mechanical failure, the results could be devastating. Technology, while offering many advancements, also makes human beings more isolated (texting instead of conversing) and this will expand and then contract. Some of the social graces are going to be missed.”
A university-based information science professional wrote, No. “I’m not sure that the economy has the strength right now to advance such innovations. They’re out there but I don’t think the general populace has the means or the interest in such progressive developments. Too many people are still struggling to simply get my. They will be on everyone’s horizon, but available only to those with the means to pay for them, despite the history of rapidly falling prices as technology advances. This is just one step in technology development that will be more along the lines of a giant leap.”
A director of entertainment marketing replied, Yes. “The most impact will be in the blue-collar sectors, and I don’t see this as being much different that what we’ve already seen and experienced with regards to automation. I don’t see this as being mainstream by 2025, however do see it infiltrating the more affluent parts of society by that time. I personally look forward to the time when my car will drive me to work so I can use that time more productively (I spend 2.5+ hours a day commuting). As more cars drive themselves we should see less accidents and a more streamlined structure related to traffic. As more things become automated I believe we will need to work harder to maintain person-to-person social skills. This is the #1 thing that continue to erode (the process has already started).”
A senior project manager in distributed Agile software development replied, Yes. “The coding knowledge necessary to compete in our future economy is already available to our citizens at a very young age. Soon knowing code will be a requirement out of high school, much like our foreign language requirements are now. Skilled labor which cannot be replaced by robots will become much more valuable and higher paying than those jobs which can be preformed by robots, and the strain on our social economy will hopefully result in more public dollars being spent domestically rather than on military and foreign aid. I don’t think management as a field will ever be eliminated, but most all jobs below manager could be easily eliminated at most fast food chains, amusement chains, and even in our own public services like police and emergency services. Eventually the managers will mostly be mechanics who deal with consumer complaints.”
A content marketer and writer wrote, Yes. “They will replace people doing lower-echelon, repetitive work that doesn’t involve a lot of variables—mail/package delivery, fast-food work, etc.”
A state government library advisor wrote, No. “It will create more jobs but unfortunately, not everyone will have the skills to participate. But if a large group is unemployed, they will not be able to purchase or enjoy the robotic advances. You will see larger divide between haves and have-nots—and maybe rebellion eventually. By 2025 it will be mostly in government and large corporations, which will reduce labor. We will see it replacing government workers on phones, cutting grass on the side of highways, delivering mail/packages?”
A distance-learning specialist for a government organization wrote, No. “The fear of machines taking over jobs has been prevalent throughout my lifetime. While they may take over certain jobs they will create new jobs. I really hope they will be a part of our lives although 20 years ago they were promised to be part of our lives now. The costs are still going to be prohibitive so many people won’t be able to participate. Think of the smart homes and digital features in homes now. People making $40,000 a year don’t have those.”
A research scientist for a major American media company replied, No. “It’s another form of creative destruction. This has been happening since steam-power. It will still be lagging in 2025—there won’t be significant life-changing advances by then.”
A retired senior analyst for the IT department of a major insurance company, wrote, No. “This question is always asked, but by now I have always seen a net increase in the number of jobs. What however change is the qualification, and unfortunately this may mean the exclusion of present day persons in the new setting. I do believe that many manual work will be done by robots, thus setting jobs off for ‘blue-collars’ (despite the fact I dislike this expression, which is pejorative and therefore wrong, as manual tasks may be seriously demanding on the intelligence and attention, and the blue-collars may be more intelligent than clerks doing secretarial tasks e.g.) The robots already among us. the assembly chains of the car industry, the assembly of laptops e.g. are already ‘robotized.’ It will simply take more tasks, as the checkout-clerk of the supermarket.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “We are living in a country with an increasing displaced workforce. I work in a diverse small city with over 25% of all families living below poverty level and the percentage of unemployed is overwhelming. I know that these advances will enhance and simplify the lives of many, but I am not sure how the folks who are hanging out on street corners will benefit (or even make a living). When I think about the fact that most 20-somethings I know neither own nor know how to read a map, I am reminded of the ways that life has changed. I think the greatest benefit might be for intelligent homes, particularly for older Americans (and I’ll be there!), that can monitor movement, track nutrition, etc. There are aspects of this same range that can benefit children, but to a lesser degree; I still believe that true human interaction with growing children cannot be replaced.”
An information science professional responded, No. “Too many baby boomers that will be reluctant to embrace robotics to make a radical change in the market place.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “New systems and tools will disrupt white and blue-collar jobs. However, other jobs will emerge so that there will be a regulation between the number of jobs that will disappear and new jobs that will appear. Daily routines, habits, will be profoundly different.”
A public affairs official for a US federal organization replied, No. “There is often the argument that advancements in technology will displace jobs. Yet for every advancement, we seem to accept and advance, oftentimes redistributing the degree of effort in one field (that which is being displaced) to others in ways.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “I suspect that the creation of more complicated and advanced technology will result in detrimental and disruptive changes on many jobs which will become automated and be able to be accomplished by technology. There will be a corresponding need for probably accomplished technicians and programmers to keep the tools working but I believe that the gains will not offset the loss of jobs. Depending upon the skill sets used, individuals may need extensive retraining for the kind of positions that are now valued by society. The new job market will probably result in changes in the educational instruction. It is not impossible that while the quality of life for the population generally will be improved with increased safety, reduced dependence on jobs that are dangerous, etc. many will join the marginally employed or unemployed and increase the need for social services, etc. Educational changes and retraining would be vital to try and limit the consequences. More and more of the dangerous, difficult jobs could be completed by robots. I think we would become accustomed to seeing robots perform many of the jobs presently held by humans. Mining, security, police work, repetitive manufacturing jobs could all be mostly automated by that date. I find it difficult to anticipate what parts would not be influenced in some way—the arts, I hope not teaching or the helping professions.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “There will be fewer jobs ‘on the line.’ I still believe the written word on paper will exist and paper will not be eliminated but more space will be devoted to computers and technology despite the smaller sizes of tablets and cellphones and other devices. There will be more computers/laptops/tablets, television on larger screens. There will be less family discussion (already true) and more isolation. Daughters are already texting moms from upstairs at home rather than coming downstairs for a face-to-face.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “The job market will evolve, as it has done for decades.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “The further we are removed from the source and process of our material means, the greater the overall issue of sustainability on multiple levels. 2025 is only slightly more than 10 years out. The cost for new infrastructure to convert to AI and robotics on the level in which it can be fully implemented will inhibit rapid conversion. Traffic, manufacturing, shipping, delivery will probably be the most evident industries by 2025. People will need jobs and want human interaction. Retail outlets may see some utilitarian growth in AI and robotics when focused merely on speed or the appeal of the geek factor, but there will be an increased demand for humans and local relationships.”
A self-employed content creator and distributor wrote, Yes. “These technologies will continue to replace blue- and then ‘gray’-collar jobs. Not so much those of white-collar or knowledge workers.”
The editor in chief or an international digital trade journal responded, No. “Sci-fi fans have been anticipating flying cars and robotic servants for at least 50 years. So far, at least outside the manufacturing industry, the only robots to have made their ways onto the general landscape are robotic vacuum cleaners. Will that change significantly by 2025? I don’t think so.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “In a worldwide business effort to drive down costs further than they are now, any and all automation will be used. One of the most serious side effects will be on employment; there may be a permanent high unemployment percentage, poverty levels will spread wider against our population, and the gulf between the haves (1 percenters) and have-nots (99 percenters) will widen. The political will, as expressed by the 113th Congress, may continue so that a high level of unemployment might be politically acceptable with low levels of government help. Indeed every aspect of American life will be affected: health care, education (who will have the money to send their children to college?), religion (How can a church offer ANY services without funds), and language (What aspect of English will be unchanged from tech speak?). Certainly other aspects of our lives will change—art, imaging (TV networks, cable), dress, to cite just a few.”
A PhD student and Internet researcher wrote, No. “Most low-level, blue-collar jobs will become redundant, with need for human touch at the managing, supervisional level. More jobs will be of a personal leisurely type. The medical field will become robotized a lot, so will household maintenance.”
A technology developer and administrator commented, No. “Jobs will be displaced, but greater efficiencies will be created on a macro level. No different than how the power loom changed the textile industry in the 1800s.”
A 30-year veteran of software design, testing, and deployment for the US Department of Defense replied, No. “Hopefully we will generate more engineers and more scientists to conceive, design, develop and deploy these robotic advances. You can’t be afraid of the future, you can’t be in fear of advances. Science would still be considering that the Earth was the center of the solar system if we mire ourselves in fear. I sincerely hope that the field of medicine will advance significantly with robotic application. Of course the slowest acceptance of AI will be in the automotive industry, although a robot could easily parallel park my car better than I.”
An anonymous respondent commented, Yes. “As the assembly line in auto making displaced many jobs, so will the use of robots and artificial intelligence. There will be a need for people to build, program, and maintain these devices, but all along the population of the world is increasing as well. Way too many people for way too few jobs. I don’t think these things will be widely used until cost is reasonable. I would hope the devices/programs would be used in law enforcement, recovery missions, activities that would/could be harmful to humans.”
The manager of channel partners for a company that provides online town hall meetings that connect local government and civic organizations to constituents wrote, No. “AI tools will be more prevalent within numerous industries, both white-collar and blue-collar. However, I think there will be an emerging industry to support the deployment and maintenance of AI tools. As a result, I think AI tools will spawn a supporting industry that will create an equal amount of jobs that these tools replace. I think AI tools will mostly be used in automation and processing applications that occur ‘behind the scenes’ in most industries. I can foresee where AI tools will make most advances in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry sectors.”
A higher education administrator replied, Yes. “The demand for more sophisticated, cheaper, and more ubiquitous AI tools will continue to create significantly greater numbers of while collar jobs and continue to eliminate significantly more blue-collar jobs than it creates. Thus, fewer and fewer individuals will have access to blue-collar jobs that pay a living wage and fewer teenagers will acquire genuine work experience. However, the most talented and privileged teens will be able to participate in very high quality internship type experiences. Life-long training and education will be in even greater demand. AI and robotics will be extremely common in most aspects of everyday life by 2025. All aspects of home life—appliances, energy control, entertainment, and information acquisition—will be AI based. Mass and individual transportation will be entirely AI based. Food production—especially produce production—will be heavily reliant on AI. Distribution of all products and information will be AI dependent. In response to the social changes that this reliance brings about, art, music, and literature will place increased value on ‘natural’ processes. One of the most dramatically changed aspects of life will be transportation.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I don’t think 10 years is long for the displacement to be greater than the additions. The easiest applications are low-skill tasks, where the economic savings of AI will be the least. Longer-term ownership of capital will continue to displace providing of labor as the ticket to economic success.”
An anonymous survey participant replied Yes. “Unfortunately, robots and AI replace low-skilled, low-wage jobs and workers who are unable to take on a different role in the workforce. While well-educated, white-collar employees will likely find ways to interact with and harness the abilities of these technologies for their own benefit, blue-collar employees will likely still find themselves shut out of certain strata of the workforce.”
The owner of an Internet and digital marketing company based in Pennsylvania wrote, No. “It will be a bit of a toss-up, forcing us to shift our economy once again, as we did moving from the industrial revolution and beyond, to a more tech heavy economy. There will be more need for more tech jobs, and there will always be the desire for the human connection. Look at banks with tellers and ATMs. Many still prefer the human interaction of a teller, and technology always has the potential for failure, which needs to be backed up by, and repaired by, humans. Much more of our lives will be automated, and I think it will mostly affect our work and entertainment lives. We will see true convergence in the world of media, with print and broadcast blending more in a customizable, deliverable manner. Automation will be used to help us get things faster, and will proliferate the world of ‘means,’ not ‘ends.’ In other words, we will still enjoy our meals at home or restaurants, but technology will make it easier for us to get them faster or more efficiently.”
A PhD candidate at the University of Quebec in Montreal said, No. “I am confident that the future is bright for everyone. I agree with positions and ideas of two of our major prospectivists (Kurzweil and Rifkin). These will bring the most change to neuroscience, medicine, and feeding the world. There will not be much change in life expectancy; research will still be ongoing but progressing very rapidly between 2025 and 2035-40.”
An anonymous respondent commented, No. “While AI offers a lot of possibility and may replace some jobs, there are still plenty of service-oriented jobs that it will not have yet replaced by 2025.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “It’s just a trend that seems to keep moving forward, despite America’s need for jobs to support its people. Its sad that the same government that wants to create jobs, supports ongoing research for AI. Manufacturing will suffer the most, and retail sales stands to shift greatly as AI moves more mainstream.”
A freelance Internet journalist, researcher, and editor wrote, Yes. “This field will continue to expand, displacing classic hands-on labor in more ways and continuing to diminish manufacturing opportunities for unskilled or marginally-skilled labor. Without a significant advancement in education in general and technical education in particular in the United States, there will be an increasing number of people who will have very few options for work, with lower income potential and a lower standard of living. This fact along could drive the US into having a second-rate economy and being a second-rate country. It would be nice to hope that mass transit, rail, and air would benefit from AI logistics and that infrastructures in cities could be enhanced by these technologies. That would require a reconfiguration of tax revenues to fund such progress.”
The social media manager for a broadband company responded, Yes. “Automation/AI will replace the need for humans in many functions. Social consequences will be a period of a decade of so of people looking for work but unable to find it as their education did not prepare them for being obsolete.”
An anonymous respondent commented, No. “There will probably be a shift in jobs from some fields to others, but there will not be a loss of jobs.”
A technology usability specialist responded, Yes. “If a business only needs to purchase a robot, why would they pay wages and other expenses for a human who makes mistakes?”
Art Brodsky, a self-employed communications consultant, commented, No. “Jobs are displaced by many factors, not only automation. Economic conditions, consumer demand and changing expectations also factor in. One hopes they will be more than today, and better.”
A university faculty member wrote, Yes. “Technology will continue to replace human workers. While more tech workers will be needed, it will not be to the level of workers that are released. Plus those being let go will not have the skills to compete for the new jobs. It will seem ordinary to have these tools even more than now. All parts of life will change.”
A university faculty member wrote, “Technology will continue to replace human workers. While more tech workers will be needed, it will not be to the level of workers that are released. Plus those being let go will not have the skills to compete for the new jobs. It will seem ordinary to have these tools even more than now. All parts of life will change.”
An anonymous respondent commented, Yes. “It will displace some types of jobs, but new types of jobs will appear, new skills and jobs will be required, more trained people. Change will come primarily to work that can be automatically developed, driving, shopping, flying, washing, etc.”
A retired business reporter wrote, Yes. “I’m advising young people to find professions that involve providing care or personal services.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I am not confident with all the natural disasters we have been having that power will still be an issue. I also am not sure there are enough smart people out there to get things done well. I refer to the Affordable Care Act website. I think people under estimate how much time it takes to develop smart technologies. I hope it doesn’t change too much. I still like to speak with people.”
A social media consultant replied, No. “It is probable that the advancement will displace workers—more than jobs created at first. But the advancements will also create new jobs and new employment channels. The amount of change by 2025 on a global scale will be minor. More wealthy populations will see more. The parts of life that will change are the parts that will allow humans to be or continue to be lazy.”
An information science professional responded, No. “I still believe that human interaction is necessary, even when jobs can be ‘completely’ automated. Many more routine tasks will be automated. Robotics and AI will be used more in those areas that require skills that can be affected by human ‘failures’—such as unsteady hands, visual acuity, and endurance, especially in the medical/surgical fields. However, the need for actual physicians and surgeons will continue.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “It’s pretty much inevitable. The shift has already begun—it will only get more pronounced.”
A librarian at an American university wrote, No. “Robotic advances will certainly make some jobs obsolete, but I feel that robotics have the potential to create a great deal of jobs as well. The social consequences of this will be considerable as the type of jobs that are available will change a great deal. This has massive implications for education, workplace preparedness, and income disparity. I don’t think traditional blue-collar jobs will exist by 2025. AI and robotics will be a increasingly large part of daily life in 2025 and they will great impact daily life for most people. Finances, health care, education, entertainment, travel, etc. will all be impacted by developments in AI and robotics.”
An information science professional commented, No. “All robots and AI agents are still controlled by humans as we not only build them, program them, but we will train them. 25% or less. I can see mundane tasks going to AI—shelving books in the library, measuring medicine in a pharmacy—but anything that requires a human touch or empathy will require a real person.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Someone has to build, program, and repair robotics Energy conservation will be built in to homes.”
A self-employed digital consultant wrote, No. “The whole notion of ‘white’ and ‘blue’ collars will be displaced by human services and innovators, on the one hand, and tech engineers, on the other. Energy delivery via AI interface will power the home environment and home-based devices in densely populated communities.”
A high-level administrator for a large library system in the US Midwest responded, No. “I don’t think so, at least in the next 12 years. It takes far longer than we think to get from conceptual ideas to workable prototypes to public acceptance. I think there will be leaps in personal technology (eyeglasses connected with your brain to access email?) Early adopters (especially the young and well off) will continue to communicate virtually rather than physically. Ick. Some jobs, like call centers and customer service, will be increasingly staffed by robotic staff.”
A newspaper journalist and health communications consultant wrote, Yes. ”They will eliminate the middle class as it was known mainly in the latter 20th century and briefly in the first two decades of the 21st century. The next middle class will be the techno class—the main mass of people who will be needed to run and keep running the technological systems. AI and robotics will permeate all landscape. They allow increasing micro delivery of online orders, thus precipitating the demise of retail establishments as we know them. They will allow total control of homes, both operationally and in their security, including offering aggressive anti-burglary devices that can be used remotely. This will be to a lesser degree because housing stock will be old. Perhaps the older housing stock will be more sought after than a techno house, since it will allow a person to feel more individualistic than he or she can feel outside the home; an attempt to be free in an increasingly less free world.”
An information science professional commented, No. “I haven’t heard much about it to begin with. I don’t expect to hear much more. I don’t think they will be a part of the ordinary landscape, except maybe for those very well off financially, and even then I don’t think they will gain too much ground.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “These will absolutely disrupt white-collar and blue-collar jobs, but they will also create new jobs in the creative economy, engineering, manufacturing, architecture, computer science, etc.”
A law librarian for a large legal services organization replied, Yes. “I do a totally different job than I did pre-internet. I have to be more savvy and analytical, I have to constantly re-think my value. There are a lot of people that don’t know how to make that leap and I expect that in the information field they will be replaced by good-enough. What it means is that bespoke products and low-cost, low-quality will proliferate. This means that making the leap to management will be a narrower opportunity that it used to be. This will exacerbate the wealth gap, those that can afford will continue to invest in their children and the rest of us will struggle to meet their basic needs.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “In 2025 AI and robotic devices will have limited impact on job displacement. Rather, they will create opportunities for more jobs for people. Robots will replace people in very few places and even in those places, people who have lost their jobs to them will be able to find work in new places. Artificial intelligence and robotics will have limited presence in the ordinary landscape of the general population in 2025. They will be present in industry but our daily lives at home will not be impacted very much. We won’t live yet with robots in 2025 in the way we see them in science fiction movies.”
A librarian and instructor at a primarily online university replied, Yes. “Looking at trends in job creation vs. automation from the early ‘70s onward, at least in the United States, the answer to this seems clear. Add globalization as a factor, and its clear there will never again be enough job for anything like full employment in the US, and that a large jobless, destitute class is likely to be a permanent feature of American life.”
A market intelligence analyst for a medical publisher commented, No. “I do not expect robots to enter any intellectual tasks in industry. Analysis will be needed by people, for finance, health, business. I do expect robots to supplement tasks. Provide directional assistance in healthcare for example, with WatsonHealth and current projects with medical alerts and data analysis to point out likely medical issues, and supplement decision-making by providing more real-time data so clinicians can make better decisions. Doctors and clinicians will still take robotic info into account, but people will make the decisions, provide healthcare. Voice recognition with networked devices will be the norm for work, entertainment and everyday life. You will be able to monitor your home remotely, communication will advance, maybe we will finally get the Dick Tracy video watch! Devices will inform you of possible issues with their battery, refrigerators will tell you if you need butter, your car will be voice locked. The chips in products will enable some of this. Monitoring of tsunamis and earthquakes will improve, and there will be more-advanced warning for tornados and hurricanes with more advanced computer modeling and data provided by AI. Robotic cars will enter the roadways in some areas.”
An information science professional replied, Yes. “This is difficult to face, but it is inevitable that blue-collar jobs will be lost. Here in Massachusetts, we are moving toward AI for toll roads. I’d never want to be a toll worker, but it is somebody’s job, and probably a union job with decent benefits. White-collar work will be more ‘safe’ but I do think it is likely that we will continue to see uncomfortable amounts of unemployment figures among white-collar workers as well. More of our young people are getting college educations, and our older people are not retiring as quickly. I think the impact of AI will put a squeeze on jobs. There will be an opportunity for job creation, for those who are entering the STEM work force. But, as a nation, we have far, far to go with exciting our young children and our teenagers in STEM academics. This is rigorous stuff. I don’t think we will have achieved what we will need to by 2025, in terms of getting kids involved in STEM. Medicine, travel, commerce. That’s my guess. What will be unchanged? Social work, public school education (especially in inner cities and rural areas), any area that intersects with people living in poverty. My mother already has some fancy heart device that reports her heart activity to her doctor without her needing to do a thing. She lives in a suburb of Boston. But, there are people in rural Tennessee or downtown LA that haven’t seen a dentist in decades. People in poverty, with low levels of education, will not reap the benefits of AI.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “I believe there will be some displacement, but unions will fight to keep jobs for workers so it will keep balanced.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “From what I’ve read by people with more knowledge of economic issues than I, we will be unable to create jobs at the rate we did after the industrial revolution, especially jobs that require a minimum of education. If cars can drive themselves, what happens to people with disabilities? Can a blind person have a car and ‘drive’ it?”
A marketing executive working in the high-tech industry since the early 1970s observed, No. “I don’t personally perceive automation to displace more production jobs within the next 11-12 years. A decade later it could swing more in terms of displacement but it shouldn’t have a dramatic effect in the US, given most manufacturing and production jobs are performed outside the US due to lower cost of labor, so automation or robotics may not have much effect at least in the near term, not so much as to swing the balance of jobs negatively. In terms of automation and digital agents I suspect we will see more and more improvements with cars and other vehicular apparatus, to enable more safety. Such things as accident avoidance systems in cars, buses, trains, perhaps boats and PWC’s that will detect collisions before they occur. Intelligent road systems to alert drivers to dangerous road conditions (more advanced than what exists today). There may also be monitors to detect if a driver is impaired and should not be driving. Engine diagnostics will become even further advanced to self diagnose engine, drive train and tire issues. Cars, trucks and buses will be equipped with automatic WiFi-enabled toll passes to enable drivers and States to collect tolls more easily—eliminating toll booths entirely. That will indeed make those toll collector jobs obsolete. Airport, train, subway and bus security systems will become even more advanced and less intrusive, removing human engagement for the most part and speeding boarding and access to travel. Similar technologies will be deployed in schools and sporting events to make them safer and more secure than at present.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I have no data to support my answer. Just a gut feeling.”
A senior product manager providing software and content solutions for the healthcare industry wrote, No. “The job market will shift, to be sure. But developing AI that is usable will take perhaps even more workers by 2025. The challenge will be to develop workers with the right skills. Digital life will change dramatically, with more individual preferences being stored and then used to drive AI actions via digital devices—whether computers (or their 2025 replacement), wearable devices, or whatever is the ‘new’ technology in 2025. Other parts of life that will be dramatically different—Communication, Work Environments, Learning/Education, Medicine, Retail Areas of life that I believe will change less or little—Transportation (other than decreased need to travel, due to enhanced virtual/communication tools), Food/Grocery, Fitness, Recreation.”
An information science professional commented, No. “’Displace’ may not be the correct term. Certainly jobs will shift in response to more networking and more robotics, but there is a question of how fast this change will actually occur. Your time frame is probably too short. Artificial intelligence is advancing, but never as fast as claimed. But the social consequence is that the jobs that get displaced are either rote or dangerous, so blue-collar manufacturing and clerical jobs are replaced by high tech jobs and service jobs. The people are not interchangeable and society isn’t shifting. One of the things that we are losing is the high-paying manufacturing jobs that used to support a family without a college degree. There aren’t jobs that fill that niche. We have not yet changed the social value of service jobs to replace it. They will stop being ‘gee-whiz’ and be normalized for a lot of people, but they won’t be commonplace. Large manufacturing will probably use more robotics if they can afford it. AI’s will continue replacing remaining clerical staff. What AI/robotics can’t do is replace a human touch or a human decision. So the top and bottom levels don’t change. We’ll see more self-service options in retail, and fewer human intermediaries. One question will be whether we will pay a living wage to human intermediaries in service jobs.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Technology displaces fewer jobs than it creates.”
The senior manager of digital for a marketing agency providing services to nonprofits wrote, Yes. “They will continue to disrupt blue-collar jobs—automotive, cleaning, pick-pack-and shipping, shelving, inventorying, anything like that. In terms of white-collar jobs, it’s hard to say—Robot dentists or surgeons? Instead of that, maybe software that automates more and more white-collar processes will take jobs. Mostly, there will be more of a squeeze on all jobs as less people are needed to run every organization. If they are affordable, we may see more robots in the home—vacuuming and dusting, driving, etc. But the real change will be for data-gathering—Google Earth, the BLM and EPA, Census—organizations like that will make the most of data—they will be able to gather max data with minimal people.”
An information science professional concentrating on the healthcare field replied, No. “The available jobs will be different and the key to success will be education and/or training to prepare the future workforce to handle the essential tasks, whether white or blue-collar. One possible social consequence will be even more competition from abroad especially China. The Chinese seem capable of making these advances much more rapidly than Western countries. I hope that home-based tasks will change significantly thus eliminating drudgework; laundry, house cleaning, mowing the lawn and the like. I think cooking for the family will change positive way as people are relieved of the menial tasks they will have more time for creating healthy family meals and learning about how to prepare quality foods for the family.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “These creations will continue to be built overseas because of the cheap labor and resources. Jobs created in America will be for a highly educated portion of the population, but will have little to moderate growth in blue-collar jobs. This will deepen the economic divide that we are currently experiencing could lead to true class warfare if the impact is not softened.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Robotic advances and AI will quickly move into all routinized, mechanized jobs, placing even greater pressures on the educational systems around the world. I believe that robotics and AI-driven advances will be a major part of activities of daily living—driving, shopping, etc.”
A self-employed digital consultant based in Sao Paulo, Brazil, wrote, No. “I think that with the robots we can do more and better and some jobs that take time can be done by robots. New jobs will appear. The big impacts will include transportation and cleaning house.”
An information science professional at a private, non-profit university commented, Yes. “Cheap labor is even better when you don’t have to worry about OSHA and immigration visas. Robots (if they work right) are inherently more predictable than humans and can do a lot more in a shorter period of time. Of course, this might create a more numerous homeless population, which would dirty up the streets and potentially reduce tourism. Then we might have to imitate Frank Jordan and ship the homeless across the Bay or to some remote rural area in order to get them out of sight. Mass emigration out of the US to … Canada? There will be more and more imbalance in income and resources. Social services might become more bloated, underfunded, and perhaps even obliterated. If we look at the writing of Ray Bradbury, George Orwell, and Aldous Huxley, we can imagine that ‘progress’ involves an increase in AI and robotics. If these tools advance in a profit-seeking, heartless way, then probably urban centers will be the most impacted. Rural areas might use the technological advances to create more sustainable businesses and homes based on solar power, wind power, and so forth. I think it all depends on whether the infrastructure can continue to bear the added strain. Economically, those that can afford it will benefit, and those that cannot, will either leave the country or otherwise quietly disappear.”
The Web marketing manager at major Chicago academic medical center replied, No. “Robotic advances will reduce blue-collar jobs but there will be growth in white-collar and educated jobs for people who build, manage, and program the digital agents. Perhaps after 2025 the shift will be sharper, but I don’t see a robot-dominated manufacturing world until 2050 or so. I would love it if there were tons of self-driving cars, but that will require an insane amount of laws and testing between states and feds before it’s a widespread reality. How much will it cost?”
A businessperson in the medical technologies sector wrote, No. “Still need the human element especially in light of labor-intensive jobs that are growing e.g. senior caregiver and the aging population. There will be fewer young people to take care of the aging population.”
An academic administrator and former foundation executive with responsibility for information technology replied, No. “People have already been replaced by robots—it is possible that more will be, but without significant investments in infrastructure, not popular with policy makers, humans will still be sitting in the driverless cars and delivery vans. I hope that driverless cars will be on line by then. I hope robots will be advanced enough to take care of us aged baby boomers. I hope many of our on-the-ground military forces will be replaced by drones. I am not sanguine that this will be true in 10 years.”
A professor emerita in the graduate program at a research university responded, Yes. “I am sure that the workforce of 2025 will be very different than what constitutes it presently. Just as few would have predicted what the workforce in 1890 looked like as compared with 1850 when the concept of and ability to make interchangeable parts was devised (leading to massive industrialization), I am sure that the change will be as dramatic. The implications for our educational system are equally challenging and the system needs to be overhauled dramatically. Already we are seeing how technology is beginning to address home security issues and the ability of people to ensure the security of their homes from a distance. The trouble that FedEx has had over the last few days before Christmas will probably be a distant memory within a few years. Delivery by automated trucks could ensure smoother movement of goods from online merchants to the home, for example. Perhaps multi-layer highways (putting an emphasis on ‘high’) with automated cars will ease the traffic issues. My hope is that human learning—especially the tacit accumulation of knowledge—will never be discounted.”
A masters student in political science at Binghamton University wrote, No. “I don’t know much about the subject of robots, but I believe as usual there is too much hype and expectation surrounding them. People made the claim and assumption there would be flying cars everywhere and robots by the year 2000 and that was not the case. I think there will be some and they will adopt some jobs for greater efficiency, but they will not displace that many workers.”
A retired college professor responded, Yes. “The positions that will be lost will be gained in new unknown technology jobs. The technology is being tested now. Public acceptance is not there yet. Higher-level technology jobs will come. This will require more education. That will require higher-level learning on both the blue- and white-collar level. It will lead to more partnerships between blue and white positions. It will be difficult in some parts of the country that are more rural and agricultural based, but even those areas will adapt just as they have with the technology that has been presented to those areas. It will be slow to the country, but it will occur. Transportation will be totally different. It will be safer, faster. The current GPS system is the first of many steps that lead to automated driving. I envision getting into the car of the future and telling the car to take me to work, or to the grocery or grandma’s house and then sitting back and reading. Next the impact will be in housing. I envision leaving work, telling the computer I want a steak, baked potato, salad, and low-calorie dessert and having it ready and waiting when I get home. In education, there will be a return to emphasizing reading and math; to be a part of the next technology boom reading and math will have to top priority. If you do not read and do math you can’t function. There will be less feel-good education; it will be more competitive and demanding.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “It seems that technology will continue to displace jobs formerly performed by humans particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors. This will lead to either movement into other skill and knowledge by these displaced individuals, or increased unrest and resentment if institutions fail to provide resources enabling and encouraging such movement. Services will be increasingly delivered via such tools including financial, logistics, and medical.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Society always redirects its efforts and activities. There is no reason to think robots will replace humans. Only developed countries will have access to robots.”
An information science professional replied, Yes. “Robots don’t have families, illnesses, or need for breaks, so I can see this affecting jobs as people are replaced by machines that don’t even need to be paid, but I also think that the drawbacks of using machinery in place of people and the cost to keep them running will eventually grow the market in other ways through the need for techs. I suspect we will see machines taking over dangerous work, automated lines, and especially telephone advertising and sales.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “In the next 10 years, it’s not likely that we’ll see self-driving cars, but we will see numerous jobs eliminated in factories and offices as AI and digital agents assume greater roles in materials handling, monetary transactions and inventory control. We will see the elimination of more service positions and a further reduction in in-person interactions.”
A retired educator with a PhD said, No. “All of these tools will come with their own faults/problems, and there will be a need to clean up after them. In the horse and buggy days, there was a certain type of transportation pollution, the gasoline engine merely created another type of pollution, which took a while for folks to recognize. There will be a bigger role for government to manage the technology interface. There will also be a standardization of current social practices in order to facilitate the use of certain technologies. Will AI automobiles be allowed onto icy mountain passes at a passenger’s request, or will there be overrides of the requests of passengers, in the interest of safety, or whatever? Will AI vehicles be allowed to transport explosives, or will there be detectors that will prevent the transport of certain materials? Will a flock of drones be allowed to zip around DC, or will there be government control?”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “This will require a lot more study and information resources than I have. But I can guess that there will be a lot of jobs still available but many will be for higher educated and skilled technocrats. Families will become smaller in light of fewer low-skilled jobs. There could be a growing split between skilled and non-skilled workers. But if non-skilled workers can get decent living wages and live good, healthy lives, they may not want to aspire to be big-shots and could care less if these low-skilled workers are smart enough to control their political and economic futures. As technology advances, people think that they are more free. Yet, the reality is that with technology we are already compromising our individual wills and there will be more autonomous controls and AI tools. We think we are free but willingly give up privacy by using transponders on toll roads, give in to GPS tracking on our cell phones and tablets.”
The CEO of a floral business replied, No. “While robotic advances and AI will have made tremendous changes, I don’t believe they will displace more jobs than they will have created. I’m not certain that we can even envision the many ways that AI and robotics will have changed our lives by 2025, but they will have touched most facets of our everyday lives by then.”
A retired management consultant for a large international corporation commented, No. “The issue is similar to all technology displacements in the past. Some workers will be displaced but other opportunities will emerge, greater than those displaced. Required skill sets will change, negatively impacting those who cannot adapt. Decision-making will be enhanced: investment choices, lifestyle choices, etc. AI will displace traditional physicians in doing diagnoses.”
The CEO and general manager for a US public broadcasting organization wrote, Yes. “Mine is a qualified ‘yes.’ Our adjustments to AI will bring new jobs and opportunities that eventually will outweigh those displaced—but it will take time for new generations to grow into them.”
A pastor who is active in the TEA Party in the US commented, No. “Modern airliners are nearly completely computer controlled, but each plane has at least two pilots who know how to fly the thing when the technology failed. Remember that plane which landed safely in the Hudson River a few years ago. That plane and all its people would have died if it was totally dependent on technology. Manufacturing has already changed. However most of life won’t change.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, Yes. “Employment will be the biggest change and I don’t think ANYTHING will remain unchanged.”
A leader of a major non-profit grassroots organization in California replied, Yes. “We’re creating larger and larger gaps between haves and have-nots, to the point where a subsistence-level human may cost less than creating, maintaining, and recycling an equivalent machine. Valuing a basic standard of human life is a conversation topic internationally, but not in the US. I hope that we move beyond our fear of socialist concepts about society, justice, and the nature of man so that we turn a corner, making a commitment to 1) family planning 2) ending extreme poverty 3) addressing the meaning of justice, particularly inequality (not just economic, but also environmental, social, etc.). I believe they will be an upper- and perhaps middle-class norm. Questions of access will exacerbate, particularly for rural, poor, disabled.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “Jobs will just be in different sectors then.”
A consultant to nonprofits and to the government of the District of Columbia replied, No. “While there may be some employees displaced by technology, advances will also drive the creation of other sorts of jobs—for white and blue-collar workers—resulting in a shift rather than displacement.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Robotics etc. will likely create a number of new jobs in and around the new fields and subgroups from which they emerge. But ‘displace’ is a rather vague term, and I would imagine that the major shifts to come will be from countries and/or labor markets that have not prepared for them sufficiently to those that have—much as is the case with similar fast-growing technologies today.”
A futurist, consultant, and industry analyst responded, Yes. “Manufacturing automation that replaces manual labor is already underway—to keep product costs down, speed and accuracy requirements will mandate robotics wherever it can be deployed. Not impressed with AI tools—more hype than result will continue. ‘Self-driving’ cars—this is not the right term. Cars with built-in safety features will replace those that lack these features. Cars will change the most and at the greatest cost to manufacturers—they have already changed dramatically in the past 10 years—next 10 will be more, if it can be designed, it will be.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Sigh… It will become even harder to talk to a real person when you have a problem with your credit card, airline reservations, and so on.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “In the end, we will have to develop an economic system that evens out the loss of work hours and still manages to distribute wealth not only to have a reasonably equitable society but to have a reasonable demand for goods and services. The point is that this will have to happen with fewer overall hours worked. 2025 is too early for this to even start so we will be on the downhill of job reduction.”
A PhD candidate in the social sciences replied, Yes. “Technology has been changing the nature of work for centuries. This will not change moving forward. It does not mean new jobs requiring different skills will not be created in the process, however.”
A fundraising consultant wrote, Yes. “Increased use of robotic devices in manufacturing, customer service and retail operations will eliminate more positions Robotics and AI will increase significantly. Tabletop tablets will allow restaurant patrons to order from the table, and a server will deliver the food.”
A multiscreen (mobile + PC) shopper analyst for eBay wrote, No. “Just like with the industrial revolution and the digital revolution, the robotic revolution will lead to a new economy that opens up new opportunities as old ways die. Just like cars replaced horses, new forms will arise. I expect a big white- and blue-collar disruption but maybe we’ll see a ‘pink’-collar—a focus on human interactions—emerge. AI and robotics will be a huge part of the landscape; they already are, we’re just not aware of it, or there’s a human intervention to applying it that makes it feel more distant. When I take my car to the dealership for a tune-up, I drop it off in the morning before it’s opened. I get a voice message or email message when it is ready; they charge my credit card on file; I get a report in the car when I go to pick it up. I imagine that someone drives the car into the garage and they use a variety of tools, robots, and PCs to perform the tests, make adjustments, install new parts, and retest. If I have a question, the person I ask reads me the report that I already have. My belief is that there’s already little human involvement and is not out of scope that this entire process could be completely done by robots. I do miss, however, having a real mechanic to talk to to get a better understanding of how my car is doing, am I ready for a new car, how far away am I from getting new tires, etc.”
A marketing and public relations specialist for the business-to-business sector commented, Yes. “More service jobs will be replaced with a self-service/digital agents experience than white-collar jobs. Creative thinking will still be need to develop new ideas, respond to consumer demand and provide the personal touch that clients using the services of white-collar professionals will demand. No more distracted clerks behind the fast food register. Customers will place their own orders on electronic menus. Self-driving taxis will allow the customer to choose shortest routes, fastest routes, or scenic routes to get to their destinations in vehicles tied in to real time traffic maps and, able to point out areas of interest along the way in the customers preferred language.”
A former DuPont electrical engineer responsible for international electro-mechanical product safety compliance commented, Yes. “Manufacturing, anything has become more automated as the years pass. What hasn’t changed is the need for folks to troubleshoot and service technology. I see the labor force changing to being more service oriented. Yes, we will still need people to ‘assemble’ housing, and things like planes, cars, etc. I don’t think robotics will ever totally replace man in the equation and definitely not by 2025. The answer to this question also has to examine what the population will be and right now its decreasing so you’ve got increasing technology with decreasing birth rates so I’m not sure how that will play out. I think transport will become even more automated—especially automobile and rail travel. Air will improve but won’t be totally automated (will have a man in the cockpit at all times—same for rail for a large extent). I think home automation will be commonplace. I also see prosthetic devices and biotechnology making a huge impact on life and the quality of life. As to what remains relatively unchanged, I suspect not much. Even our infrastructure will be in some way.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “There are many things that will be automated as voice recognition technology gets better all the time. Home tools will change the most.”
A social science research supervisor commented, Yes. “Automats will take over more jobs as humans figure out how to become skilled in many tasks instead of craftsmanship in one area. Cloud intelligence will continue to grow, as data is scoured non- stop. Artificial intelligence will become more human-like.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “AI will be a cheaper alternative to some things, but it will not take over for many other things that need human intervention. they will be the 1st line of access to many companies and services, but they will only be able to do certain things. After that, a human will have to assist.”
A retired defense systems executive, electronics and computer engineer, and IEEE member wrote, No. “The number of jobs may not change. However, there will be significant disruption in the nature of both blue-collar and white-collar jobs. Transportation of personnel and goods will change as will logistics and material handling.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I don’t think this will happen by 2025, but I think the number will indeed be significant by 2050. I would speculate that human participation in manufacturing across all spheres will have significantly decreased, by as much as 50%, as to any good produced via an assembly line process. Additionally, I would envision the use of 3D personalized manufacturing at the end-user level where a given product is ordered and then created right there in the home.”
A library and information science master’s student commented, Yes. “This is a trend that began decades ago, I don’t see it changing through 2025. Personally, I think the ‘holy grail’ for companies will be when they can have machines make choices that are currently only possible by humans. When IBM’s Watson computer goes mainstream, many, many jobs will be lost.”
A writer based at the University of Puerto Rico replied, No. “Robotics and automation requires well educated and trained people for research investigation and implementation generating new jobs.”
A business professional replied, No. “Technology, while eliminating jobs on one hand, opens up new jobs requiring new skills on the other. Human intelligence is and always will be superior to artificial. You can’t have artificial intelligence without a human designing it. The part that will remain unchanged the most is the need for human interaction. It is at our essence and core and without it we as a species will die. The more technology is a part of our lives, the greater the premium on human engagement.”
The director of IT for a large educational organization commented, Yes. “But new jobs will be created that demand higher levels of skill and intelligence. This is a direct parallel to what we see in the manufacturing industry.”
A consultant for nonprofit organizations wrote, Yes. “Blue-collar factory jobs will be decreased. Highly skilled technology jobs and engineering jobs will be increased. Class difference between rich and poor and between young people who grew up with the technology and old people who did not will be greater Grocery shopping will change—you will go to a kiosk or on your computer select your items and robots will get them and they will be delivered to you. Repetitive type businesses—McDonald’s, car washes, postal service, pharmacy, pre-screenings at doctor’s offices, will all be changed. Unique customer experiences such as browsing a bookstore, high end dining, concerts, will remain unchanged, but supports around these things will change—automatic ticket takers for example.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “I believe it will advance, but I also believe it will be gradual to the point of seeming natural, as natural as cell phone replacing wall phones.”
The library director at a college in Maryland wrote, Yes. “This will vary a lot by industry, I think. In sectors where the AI applications have security implications (like drones) wide use may take longer. In other areas we may see automation make inroads (although in places where we already see it, like supermarkets, human staff seem to be necessary to trouble-shoot and bag items). As noted above, automated check-outs in retail stores may be more ubiquitous. These have the potential to cut down on wait time on line (thought I am not sure it does yet). Until automated phone answering from companies becomes much more intelligent, I don’t think customer service will change much.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “They will displace a huge number of jobs. At some point, whether by 2025 or not I cannot say, these jobs will be replaced by DIFFERENT jobs that we can’t even imagine yet. However, disruption is inevitable.”
A university professor wrote, No. “The control centers for these devices will have to be expanded. People need to be better educated to be productive citizens or just to survive. What will be changed most by 2025: household and daily life activities, as well as some service professions Least changed: medicine, legal services, education, and other types of intellectual work.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Jobs opportunities are continuing to shrink except in IT-related industries, and this trend will only worsen if AI improves and takes over more automation. 2025 is just a little over a decade away. Judging by the changes of this last decade, I don’t think we can expect some Dick Tracy-futuresque world of radical automation, but there will be new gadgets and enablements that make certain things in life easier. These might include improvements in the monitoring and dispersement of transportation traffic, work-at-home improvements, and speech input technologies to make computing easier.”
A professional who works for a nonprofit social services provider replied, Yes. “Many of the ways AI tools will replace human workers are yet to be imagined but, as long as it is more profitable for companies to use widgets, that will be the push. As long as computer algorithms depend on an if this, then that model, positions that require little decision making on the part of the person will become increasingly rare. I think that AI will have a larger presence when it comes to transportation. There will be no need for toll-booth workers, subway conductors, and pilots. Retail will lose many workers. Consumers are already being forced to use self-checkout and in many cases, to bag their own packages. This will increase.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The entire idea is to remove the dumb tasks that humans must do. It will displace more jobs than such industries will create because there isn’t a one to one correlation between the work a thing takes to design and create against the work it performs. I’m not sure what exists on the other side of the opportunity cost calculation.”
A self-employed author and blogger replied, Yes. “More blue-collar jobs will be displaced by AI and robotics than white-collar ones. Jobs that require fairly rote movements and/or predictable decisions based on inputs given by the end consumer are prime to be displaced. Jobs which require creativity and more flexibility in making decisions will be slower to be taken over by robots. They will definitely be part of the ordinary landscape. I think we’ll see more robots in the home, to handle routine tasks. Consumers will also see robots in stores and banks—they will continue to push the envelope along the lines of phone trees and self-checkout at grocery stores. I think education may even see some robotic influence, but I hope and expect that human teachers will still be needed to deal with face-to-face education.”
A management consultant commented, No. “This question is posed in a way that presupposes an answer. I suspect that in the time frame envisioned robots, AI, and so on will have an essentially neutral impact on overall employment. What will change significantly will be the types of employment opportunities available and the need for much higher levels of education overall including specific technical competence and workplace training. Manufacturing industries are already transformed but this will extend to all primary industries and some service industries as well. Things like agriculture and mining are already ‘technologized’ and in the process of change although the capital required to complete the transformation is enormous—this is driven by the need to minimise waste, adverse environmental impacts, danger to humans and so on.”
A principal librarian for regional services in Australia responded, Yes. “There will be significant loss of blue-collar jobs as manufacturing is more and more dependent on robotic production, many white-collar jobs involved in the production and analysis of data will go as more sophisticated algorithms are created and managed by digital agents and many simple jobs from cleaning to driving will be done by self driving cars, AI and robotic devices. Social consequences will include de-skilling of people as we no longer need them to do basic production and mechanical jobs, increased unemployment for unskilled as we need fewer of them to do personal care type roles and an overall loss of technical skills in society. The next generation won’t know how to make and make do in the way that current generations who grew up in and after World War II can (except for preppers—this movement will probably get stronger). Housework and basic gardening, pool care, etc., will change significantly as robots do the work (e.g. Roomba vacuums, automatic pool cleaners, self guiding mowers). We won’t even notice the presence of these devices and the removal of the need for us to do these types of chores. AI and robotics are ordinary in manufacturing now, e.g. car making, but we don’t see them at the moment as they are inside factories, they will come out into the general view as this technology is adapted for domestic use.”
An entrepreneur and business leader said, Yes. “We’ve already seen robotics displace formerly human jobs, but they also create a need for human who program, service, and maintain the machines. If 3D printing displaces other extrusion (plastics) as well as moving into printing with non-plastics—something we see only in forecasts, so far—we could see a massive disruption of basic manufacturing. Even if robotics are used in basic manufacturing, I see a handmade or human-made movement rising as an alternative. This would be similar to the Buy Local, Handmade, Locally Made movements of the past decade that have seen a resurgence through small local businesses as well as through online marketplaces like Etsy. IF robotics are used for basic manufacturing, I see high-end manufacturing by hand strengthening.”
An independent consultant specializing in research issues relating to aging wrote, No. “With most evolving technologies, it is difficult to know what new industries/jobs they will foster, while at the same time reducing the number of available lower skilled jobs. The question is whether our educational system will be up to the challenge to equipping individuals with the knowledge and skills to grow into the new jobs that robotics and AI will create. This will require that the educational system be proactive and anticipate these new job requirements, rather than react to political issues and agendas. For those unable to adapt, the principal societal consequence is that the inequality gap will increase. My area of research is senior services and home health care. Based on the current projections, AI and robotics will have a significant impact in both medical and health care in this setting.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “Unfortunately, I believe this is too true! Two classes—upper and lowest are almost inevitable.”
A marketing research analyst responded, Yes. “The robots will take jobs from people because they are just being developed now and a shift will always happen. I believe shortly after the first wave there will be a shift in jobs and the job market will change. Ultimately the job loss will be a wash and could lead to even more jobs but that will happen later than 2025. Production and home care will be the start with less need of man hours where a robot could do better. “
A retired lawyer and political activist replied, No. “There will be displacement of manufacturing jobs to be sure, but there will be an even greater demand for employees to manage and maintain the digital tools.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “Jobs will just change and require more skills. Until robots can build other robots. Japan is developing robots to assist older people with basic tasks. More basic, repetitive tasks will be performed by robots or integrated into systems, like cleaning. self-watering pots, windows that darken for privacy according to a setting, etc., Tasks that require emotional involvement will remain, as well as learning, and higher-level thinking, of course.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “In the auto industry and medical fields, advancements in robotics have already led to less need for human interaction. So there is no need for as many employees. More robots means fewer employees. Think Zeitgeist. Robots will build and program other robots on so on. I foresee robots and robotics in every aspect of a person’s life. What will happen to humans when they no longer need to do anything because some robot is doing it for them? I see humans becoming more obese and unhealthy and possibly more withdrawn from the world beyond their four walls.”
A chief evangelist for Brazil for a global IT company that is based in the US commented, Yes. “There are always disruptions; jobs are eliminated and others created. Technological evolution is very fast. Operations tasks will be replaced, even some made by typical middle-class workers (lawyers, client services). Many of these activities may still be done by humans for pleasure. Example: driving your car will be optional—you can drive your vehicle if you want or it will do everything automatically.”
A science center administrator wrote, No. “Until we can capture what drives innovation humans will continue to play a crucial role as employees. It would be great if we could develop robots and AI tools to assist humans so that they are able to have better lives in the future. I imagine you will begin to see more robotics in everyday life. It may still be segregated by cost so that the rich can afford robotic help but not yet the middle class.”
A consultant to state higher education organizations commented, Yes. “Low-skill jobs will be replaced and a smaller number of high-skill jobs will be created. There will be major changes in how personal and healthcare services are delivered.”
A digital analyst for a publishing company replied, No. “Robotic advances and AI will serve the needs of the people and while replacing some jobs they will create others; one has to build the robotic devices/AI, maintain them, and improve upon them. Just as we’ve seen an interest in ‘retro’ devices now we’ll see an interest in ‘retro’ human-interaction stores/services in the future. Just as Internet availability is not available to everyone neither will robotic devices/AI.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Overall there will be a net negative effect on jobs with reductions in blue-collar primarily but increasingly in white-collar jobs. As has happened in previous advances in technology new areas of job growth will mitigate much of the loss although the net will still be mildly negative. Some manufacturing jobs currently being done in cheap labor markets overseas will be done by robots in the US, leading to a mild gain in US jobs but losses in these positions overseas. Home use of robotics will be limited to that which is built into appliances, etc. Business use of robotics will be pervasive.”
A regional sales director for a business wrote, No. “The advancement of AI will create more jobs such as supporting elders that need small levels of care versus full-time attendants etc. Many jobs can not be replaced by AI no matter how creative creators can create robots and the like. Robots will be common in the food service industry.”
A university-based researcher and educator replied, Yes. “Looking at our recent past I expect this pattern to increase at a rapid rate Individuals will still remain predominate but routine procedures will be completed by AI.”
An employee at a US-based, state, public university wrote, Yes. Automated sorting in the shipping industry has already displaced many workers. Unless our education system improves and regains the level of ‘American exceptionalism’ of the past, we will not see new industries developed to re-educate and accommodate displaced workers. Difficult to predict what will happen, except to compare today’s changes to the possibilities of tomorrow. For instance, a decade ago social media really didn’t exist. Today it accounts for as much as 40% of revenue in areas such as advertising, public relations, and marketing. Print has flipped to digital. If all that can happen in a decade, with technology accelerating in the future, who knows where we will be after another decade has passed?”
An education consultant, teacher and developer replied, Yes. “The goal of industry is to reduce costs, and as long as robots can do that, it will happen. I saw a story on the news yesterday about combining robotic ‘hands’ and human workers to increase strength and reduce redundant-motion injuries. It’s here. Education must also adapt, and workers must be helped to understand that they must learn new skills.”
A researcher for an economic development agency responded, No. “These agents will disrupt jobs but create new ones involving monitoring, repair, enhancements, research and analysis.”
The president of a Washington, DC-based center advocating health solutions wrote, Yes. “Robots, AI, and digital tools will disrupt current white- and blue-collar jobs to an extent unfathomable by me. I just know the impact will reverberate through every aspect of the life of every person.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “As processes change so do jobs. There will be changes in both white and blue-collar jobs but that has been true over the course of time. I hope that man does not become lazy and less self reliant on true given abilities and sign themselves over to technology.”
An Internet marketer commented, Yes. “A large percent of the population will have their jobs displaced by robots both in the US and abroad within the next 50 years. The only solution is to control birth rates to have fewer people on the planet. The fight for limited resources will also be difficult so world population control is the biggest issue the planet will face in the next 50 years. I think everyone will have robotic assistance in their lives. It will start simple like the Roomba or drone deliveries by Amazon or Siri and slowly work its way into our lives as products/technology advances. I’m not a fan of complete AI machine intelligence, I think that machine (algorithmic) learning to a degree without self awareness is likely a middle ground most people will accept. Reliability of these robots will determine their acceptance. I can see automated cars, automated delivery, and automated cleaning/cooking/housework being very popular. Voice commands and conversational language comprehension of the robots may be the biggest hurdle to implementation. Personally I need a polite robot to manage my schedule and tasks each day and to keep me on schedule.”
The director of financial stability and workforce development for a medium-sized nonprofit commented, Yes. “The use of AI and robotics will have increased significantly by 2025. Although I don’t believe it will drastically impact white-collar jobs, the trend will continue and more blue-collar workers will be displaced. Of course, the education requirements for the new blue-collar jobs will also prevent most current blue color workers of assuming those positions. Robotics and AI in manufacturing and similar industries will continue to grow. There will also continue to be increases in AI and robotics in telephone customer service. Increasingly customers will prefer to work with a robot whose speech they can understand versus an offshore live person who they can’t understand and who has difficulty assisting them. Assuming that robotics can become more efficient and perform at a high level of quality, use in the home could increase.”
A professional counselor wrote, No. “AI will enable the dirtiest and most routinized work to be done by non-humans; we will have different kinds of work for humans. AI will also enable some difficult technical and medical work to be done consistently well, though not entirely without human intervention. I am excited about what I read about medical uses of nanobots and robots in surgery. Humans will always need the comfort and security of actual physical contact—the way we care for each other can be made less toilsome by AI but we will all still want to hold hands.”
The digital manager for a hospital and member of the computing professionals’ honor society commented, Yes. “With technology advancing, it’s only a matter of time before robots begin taking over more and more jobs. The introduction of robots to the workforce may start with simpler tasks, but with technology advancing the way it is, it could soon emerge to more complicated tasks. Socially, jobs could be displaced and there could even need to be some government led bills to limit what robots can and can’t be used for. Robots could be anywhere—driving cars, cleaning houses, responding to questions in a conversation, etc.”
A Web technical analyst for a major US county commented, Yes. “2025 is not that far away, and we seem to be relying upon technology more and more. Common sense is disappearing in our society, so a gain in reliance upon robots, digital agents, and AI tools seems to be likely just around the corner. More basic routine tasks will become more automated, or will migrate into the background, appearing to disappear. Parts of life that will remain relatively unchanged—will be the need for people to still have to think for themselves, and judge the difference between right and wrong.”
A manager for a major US foundation replied, Yes. “AI eliminates human error and is generally more efficient. I believe commutes will be altered as will the ability to detect natural disasters.”
A university-based researcher commented, No. “In the original question, you don’t specify white and blue-collar jobs but here you do. I’m therefore not exactly sure what to answer. I *do* think that new technologies will disrupt blue-collar jobs to a degree, but I *don’t* think they will disrupt white-collar jobs. So, on average, they won’t have displaced more jobs than they created but if you look at each sector specifically, they will. Not exactly impressed with the wording of this question. I’d rather not think about it, as I strongly feel that our move toward AI-dominated tasks and tools is eroding our humanity.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “I’m not sure if it is a simple yes-or-no answer. So far, automation technology has not necessarily eliminated opportunities for work- it’s just that job growth and opportunities for employment have occurred in the upper echelons of IT and low-paying service sector, while the solid jobs and benefits of the working class manufacturing sector have been flattened. So what we may see is a continuing bifurcation of the labor market where jobs that involve the creation and maintenance of robotics and AI multiply, and low-level service sectors jobs continue to be available, but middle range jobs that could a middle class lifestyle for most families continue to be scooped out of the labor market. Maybe…”
A planning information manager for the City of Cambridge, Massachusetts, wrote, Yes. “If you look at manufacturing this is already happening and picking up steam. To what extent it spreads to a broader set of industries remains to be seen.”
A middle manager in the digital division of a public media company responded, Yes. “This disruption of the workforce will be widespread as the cost of robotics goes down relative to the cost of the human workforce. There will be movements to label products ‘robot made’ and pressure will grow on corporations to maintain a percentage of human laborers, even if doing only trivial tasks, in order to provide at least modest income to large portions of the population. Robot service will look/feel like self-service and people will love the convenience and instant gratification surrounding quick meals, transportation, and access to entertainment. As people interact less with one another for simple services, perhaps some folks will invest more in others at a more meaningful level while others detach further from day-to-day human interaction.”
A healthcare consultant replied, No. “Some of the best advances have been due to robotics and AI. In my primary field healthcare and pharmacy, many professionals have fought against electronic prescribing, automated dispensing and other advancements known to save lives. When we have embraced those advances we have allowed for professionals to use their education in much better and more productive ways. I can’t see any area left unchanged. The positive advances from robotics and AI have so improved our productivity, safety, and lives in the last 20 years. I can’t predict what is next, but the next 10 to 20 years will look nothing like today.”
A professor at a large public university wrote, No. “They will continue to replace blue-collar jobs—e.g. in manufacturing and anything else consisting of a repetitive task. Some lower level white-collar jobs may disappear, ones where paper shuffling outweighs the need for creative thought and innovation. But careers that require ‘thinking’ as one of their major components can never be replaced by robots, because ‘AI’ does not equal or exceed ‘I.’”
The owner of a creative services group responded, No. “Robotics is useful for production line such as assembly, in other contexts the lack of QC requires personnel in sensitive production.”
A professional blogger wrote, Yes. “Although some jobs will be created for those who build the technology, the low income and unskilled workers that robots and AI systems will displace will not benefit from the creation of those jobs because many cannot afford or access higher education. Robotics will increasingly be a part of society but robotics is not sufficiently advanced at this stage or in the near future to replace many human functions.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The displacement may occur if people don’t become better educated and better trained.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “The nature of AI and robotics is to produce a more efficient means of operating and therefore less workforce will be needed to operate. Almost all activities will have a technology support. Not only will repetitive jobs such as factory jobs, but also education and medical fields will be incorporating AI and robotics within their fields.”
An anonymous respondent said, No. “History has always shown us that new advances and innovations create new kind of job and competencies. Old jobs and skill sets will diminish and new ones emerge. This will be the same case here. The Internet of Things will be come more pervasive. All products will be embedded with information and intelligence. Connected devices and lifestyle will become a reality—homes, to cars to entertainment to sports to arts etc. The part that will remain unchanged is the fact that human beings need to absorb and use this petabytes of information effectively. We have always seen software and tools don’t create transformation automatically. They are at best enablers. It is adoption and usage that creates transformation and change. Decision-making and choices will become instantaneous. When there is an information flood individuals will build information dams and gauges to enable information flow at the appropriate time to take decisions. That will not change.”
A technical manager who works with professional and financial enhancement tools commented, Yes. “It will displace drivers, traffic controllers in case of automated cars. Other such devices will erode the service infrastructure that was developed in the last few decades. It will affect almost one-fourth of the population. It will lead to reduction in median household income and suppress spending overall.”
An organizational, marketing, and planning consultant for nonprofit organizations commented, Yes. “Low-skilled/low-paying jobs will become increasingly scarce—given over to technology. The middle class will continue to shrink.”
A self-employed communications consultant responded, Yes. “In 2025 that the balance will be in robotics favor, but that soon thereafter, new jobs will have overtaken the # done by robots. More interest and education will turn to new industries. I don’t think it will be hugely different from 2014. Medicine will experience a great amount of change.”
A technology journalist replied, Yes. “The Internet of Things and robots are going to take way more middle-class jobs than people realize, but at the same time, climate change and other disruptions on the local level will bring blue-collar and artisan jobs back. Houses still need to be built and repaired with hands. Food still needs to be cooked by a human, or people will continue to prefer it that way. In other times of great automation, new jobs have emerged to replace ones lost, but it’s a period of tumult while that happens. I don’t think it will be sorted out by 2025.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “There will be an even greater need for continuing education as new jobs emerge and workers need to be trained for them. How to pay is another issue. Large numbers of unemployment, especially in the 18-30 age group, could lead to greater social upheaval in our society and an even larger divide between rich and poor. Jobs will be created by the government to employ the unskilled and to get infrastructure upgraded. Older people will be able to drive longer due to robotic autos. Household workers and caregivers roles will change and there may be fewer of them. Robots will clean my house. Privacy like I knew it over the last 60 years already has a different meaning. I already feel that I have much less privacy, considering the way we prefer to communicate. I dislike getting computer ads from companies with whom I have done business without my approval. It is like robo telephone calls. I’d like to sign up for the ‘Do not send unwanted emails’ list if it would be easily possible. There will be much less personal service and contact. How will society build consensus?”
A certified therapist wrote, No. “The intention of these robots will be to create more ease and simplicity in a living environment. However the intention will not meet the need. It will be limited by the need to repair the mechanisms, as well as the limits of income by the majority of common people.”
A self-employed Web designer/developer and writer responded, Yes. “I don’t think anyone is fully aware of what will happen when the entire truck-driving industry goes to computers. That’s a lot of people out of work. The same goes for grocery checkouts and fast food registers, where people are already quite unnecessary. The consequences of ‘losing’ these jobs might be minor if we have a method for helping people become more educated to fit into other professional job roles. However, I doubt we (in the US, at least) will, which could easily lead to even greater income inequality than we already see. Despite some real concerns, I am one of the few who’s looking forward to the robot overlords. I see a future where robotics frees up many people’s time in a way that allows creativity and innovation to flourish, possibly in a way humanity has never seen. By 2025, there will be a sizable portion of the world that hates the changes robotics bring to humanity out of some irrational fear of a Matrix-styled future, but I think the changes will come, anyway.”
A professor at the University of Pittsburgh wrote, Yes. “I imagine that a significant number of customer service positions will be eliminated. Not sure how about the impact that robotics will have on blue-collar jobs.”
A professor of new media at a major university in the US replied, Yes. “AI and robotics will disrupt labor at both ends of the spectrum—displacing workers who are low skilled and conduct repetitive tasks, as well as those who engage in more complex and knowledge based work. This will force an increasing reliance on education and may also fracture the social fabric of capitalist economies—the poor will be poorer, and the wealthy will become wealthier. Education will become more important to society, and will face substantial change to cope with the increasing disparities. Domestic work will be increasingly turned over to automation and robotics. Some educational imperatives will also be revolutionized by AI.”
A retiree replied, Yes. “We are all stuck on Earth. When human capital is replaced by mechanical capital, human capital is lost. There is little natural about our contrived economic systems. So, unless the haves are willing to unconditionally support the have-nots, we will be in a big pile of doodoo. 2025 seems a little soon for a landscape of the ‘ordinary,’ but there will be aspects. Lots depends on the reasonable availability of technology and computing power to the ‘ordinary’ man.”
A retired state government legislative aide and budget analyst responded, Yes. “Decisions made through the use of algorithms? OMG By 2025 I will be over 80 and I expect robots and online surveillance will be a part of my life. On the bright side, this may make it easier for my children to care for their aging parent.”
A professor at the University of Colorado wrote, No. “Jobs that are repetitive and have expected outcomes will be replaced by automation, just as much banking is now done through ATMs. Fast food workers will run automated distribution centers. Stores will become more like old-fashioned shops with one person organizing items and sales. More information will be available in health care, but people will still be able to interact with individuals workers. Education will remain relatively unchanged because it is still people-dependent, in spite of massive online courses. Daily life for the upper class will change, but lower classes will not see as much automation as is imagined.”
A marketing and business consultant commented, No. “The addition of any new technology has, historically, created more job opportunities. There will be a requirement for manufacturing plants to upscale their existing manufacturing, hiring high tech staff as well as testing staff. Construction and implementation of the technology needed for on-road services will be enhanced with additional personnel, both for existing and expanding AI and robotic functions. A variety of industries (including manufacturing, telecommunications and construction) will be involved in the transition process. Technology changes, specifically in the US automotive industry, move slowly. I guestimate that the US will only have 25% transition of AI and robotics by 2025. The only exception to this would be if international technology and automotive companies leap ahead; then the US will be scurrying to catch up. An example of this is the ‘green’ and ‘hybrid’ cars. The US has lagged behind this transition and is just now beginning to catch up.”
A professional educator wrote, No. “People will still be needed to implement and develop future technologies.”
A professional educator commented, No. “For every innovation, there are jobs created. The key is determining the growth areas and targeting those skills necessary to succeed there. Once the disruption calms, robots and AI will become part of the general landscape. They will co-exist with traditional skills and jobs, not supplant them. Complementary co-existence.”
A lawyer working on technology issues replied, Yes. “In this country, there will be too many high level workers and not enough workers to know how to do the work. The trend seems to be that once a computer program is created, everyone wants to work with the program and over time the people who created the program are no longer around and no one knows how to recreate if there is a problem. I expect it will be the same with AI.”
An instructional system designer based in Texas wrote, Yes. “Although more programmers and technicians will be needed moving forward ameliorations in AI, robotics, and automated process will overtake more jobs than can be created during the same time period. They will constitute 25% of landscape and market and quickly increasing.”
A technology developer wrote, Yes. “Artificial Intelligence will ‘think’ answers for those who can’t think. Based upon the decisions of the smartest, people will have to comply with what has been chosen for them ‘for the good of the whole’ or some line that the government will define. Disdained jobs will revert to robots: laundry, cleaning, dusting, etc.”
The website manager for an Australian lobbying organisation replied, No. “Someone still has to build the devices, develop the software, market and sell the devices, install them in people’s homes (especially for less tech-literate users), and train workers to do all these jobs. So there will still be jobs, but they’ll be different types of jobs. Building and installation will be the new blue-collar jobs, but will be better paid than previous manufacturing trades. The trade-off will be in lower paid white-collar jobs due to some mid-level positions being replaced by automation, requiring more lower-paid white-collar jobs to keep the process running. There will still be plenty of highly paid work for white-collar workers in design, development, and management. Where unemployment is a problem, it will be because workers have been displaced by automation and robots, but the labour market in their area has not adjusted by providing workers with retraining or developing new industries based on the shift to a more automated society. This could result in a larger gap between developing and developed nations, as those already well resourced are in the best position to predict the industrial shift and prepare their education and training sectors, and local industries, for the change. In areas of safety or stress, such as cars, fire safety, warning systems, etc. AI and robotics will be a normal and welcomed part of life. Tedious tasks such as house cleaning, laundry, garden maintenance, etc., will also be automated, although there may be backlash as this means more women entering the workforce and less work for cleaners. Expensive tasks such as healthcare procedures may be automated for economic reasons, but there will be a backlash if there is an increase in morbidity or mortality from the use of technology. Life tasks that are creative, such as cooking and making coffee, are unlikely to be greatly affected by AI and robotics. People value the enjoyment in the process of making good food even if it means grinding their own spices or stirring jam for hours at a time. Tasks that are seen as somehow related to cultural or gender identity are also unlikely to be performed by robots such as caring for children. I do think people will be more willing to allow robotics and AI to be involved in caring for the elderly and disabled than for children, because it will be justified as allowing adults to maintain their dignity and live independently, whereas children are expected to be dependent on their mother and the mother is expected to be available to her children 24/7 or risk her credibility as a woman.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “I foresee the development of very complicated and efficient AI tools that can replace many different types of jobs. Security encryption, digital tracking agents that can pinpoint when a crime is being committed and have officers on the scene before a phone call is even made. Blue-collar workers are constantly being replaced with automatons even today. If the US doesn’t commit to training students for advanced technology jobs. Then I see the unemployment and jobless gap growing. Dividing an already struggling middle class.”
A Web developer for a museum wrote, Yes. “The skills required for this mass innovation will not be available. The divide between rich and poor will be accentuated.”
A library director at the US federal branch wrote, No. “Robotic advances will change the jobs, not actually reducing the number of jobs, but changing the contents. Some white-collar jobs will disappear, but at the same time more robotics oriented planning etc. positions will be opened. The effects at the blue-collar sector are more significant, giving physically heavy and dangerous tasks to robots. Among the aspects impacted: well-being services; taking care of the elderly; industrial robots.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “As in the industrial revolution era, some professions vanished but others, new ones, were born. It is the same way here. The robots are taking and will take a bigger part of daily life, mostly in medicine and industry.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Neural systems and AI are making rapid advances. As these smart systems proliferate more jobs will be created for those with strong skills in math and science just to create and support AI systems.”
A government-based cultural technology research analyst wrote, No. “There will be new, different types of jobs. Already, there are jobs that didn’t exist 10-20 years ago, and that is a trend that will continue. There could even be an exponential increase in new, different jobs. Certainly white-collar jobs in new technologies and related occupations (testing and support for the technologies), but there will still be a need for some blue-collar jobs, they will just be different. Ultimately, I could see some blue-collar jobs being phased out as robots can do some of the manufacturing tasks, but I would imagine there would always be a need for a human to ‘check’ on the work. Transit will be hugely changed; workplaces will operate differently. I don’t imagine that any part of life will be unchanged, as AI will come into the home as well as the workplace. Homes will be equipped with smart appliances, shopping will be different, as online purchasing will become the norm, even for everyday items.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “The economic impact of robotic advances are shifting and will shift jobs by 2025 but this does not mean that social consequences all negative ones. There is a permanent jobs relocation and not elimination by the robotic advances. The relocation starts with the school education, with curriculum, preparing the next work force for the new types of jobs. The most needed advantages and help are in the medical field, helping in the detection and the cure of different illnesses. The more is invested in this kind of robotics, the more will help prevention and the waiting time of illnesses detection and start a more efficient cure. Even if these are the most needed, I do not see these as parts of the medical landscape because of the slow introduction in the field and the high R&D expenses. The households appliances and security of the household are seen to still be the most predominant.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, No. “There will be a surge of AI applications in many jobs however the lack of human ‘street smarts’ and ‘common sense’ will become evident and AI will be relegated to being assistants and not substitutes. As long as privacy and security can be assured, AI will be a more common part of the general population as assistants or ‘housekeepers’ but they will not be able to replace honest labor and imagination.”
An administrative assistant for a major US foundation commented, No. “By 2025, I expect most AI to still have a lot of kinks that need to be worked out before they get to the point of completely replacing jobs. I think AI and robotics in 2025 to be similar to electronic vehicles today—there are a few around, but it is still a novelty.”
A leader at a US state environmental agency replied, No. “Robots will continue on their current trajectory—replacing people at dangerous jobs, and creating safer more creative jobs.”
A senior Web designer for the State of Oregon responded, Yes. “Automation usually causes jobs to decline, where it takes over manual processes. Without an investment and interest in science and technology, it will be difficult to find people for the jobs that are created by this explosion of advances in technology. I’m hoping that robots will be able to help care for elderly and disabled people and let them live more independently for longer. If self-driving cars progress, our roads could be safer and traffic better regulated. Our energy consumption might be reduced by more efficient appliances.”
A consultant for a major religious organization wrote, No. “Robots will emerge as a new way of ensuring public safety (self-driving cars and other road applications, police investigative applications, military applications), and personal convenience, but I believe humans will continue to innovate and find ways to contribute to the economy. There will be more robotic household tools (vacuums, self loading washer/dryers, refrigerators that monitor the freshness of food). There will be more personal robots—companions for the elderly, medical aides for the disabled. Humans will still seek out the company of other humans. Robots will not replace intimate relationships.”
An education technology researcher working in a science center wrote, No. “With any high-tech device, infrastructure, and tools, another new demand will be created for highly-trained operators to be able to install, repair, diagnose, and fix software, tools, and platforms that are artificially intelligent. Copier machines were meant to automate the office, but instead, created a whole market and field of copier repair services, office chains that sell paper and desktop printer parts, etc. The most routine tasks will be left for AI such as foreign language translation for media content, manuscripts, and everyday users. I can see robots will continue to used for coal mining or other menial tasks. This include things like serving as automated robots to assemble and transport materials. They will not make advances in craft-like tasks, complex problem-solving, cognitive or physical tasks such as eye surgery, negotiating peace treaties, or raising children.”
The managing director for a large advertising and marketing agency responded, No. “This is novelty stuff that will take much longer to penetrate everyday life than their inventors think. There already is substantial, though not heavily publicized, robotization and technical innovation in industry, medicine and other sectors already. Unless there is a breakthrough killer consumer application, this will be a long slog. Not much more than today.”
A freelance writer, author and journalist, and website creator/maintainer commented, No. “It seems that robots/AI are usually geared toward replacing blue-collar jobs more than white-collar. Also, at the speed of advancement I have seen over the past decade, I don’t feel that it will be that much more advanced by 2025. I don’t think the average person will see much change in this regard. If anything, it would be behind the scenes.”
A university-based teacher and data scientist responded, No. “Blue-collar jobs are there for people with the type of technical training available in post high school tech schools and community colleges. There are so many extant examples, with more each year. AI will be more part of quotidian life, the Google car works. Drone deliveries are being tested in the EU.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I don’t know if they’ll replace more jobs than they are creating. The problem of course is that they’re creating different types of jobs than those that have existed in the past. This question can’t be answered without consideration for changes necessary in education to prepare particularly blue-collar workers for the workforce of the future, so instead of the types of jobs they’ve held for the past half century they’re prepared to work WITH technology. I can’t help but think of the Jetsons. :-) I hope we will benefit from replacing some of the more mundane aspects of life (cleaning the house) with automated tools.”
An educational technologist at a regional university in the US wrote, Yes. “Service jobs that now seem sure will be outsourced and replaced by robotics. Routine household tasks will be accomplished by specialized robots.”
A professor of information systems at University of Poitiers, France, responded, Yes. “We will see the beginning of the end of some professions, like ‘drivers’ or ‘pilots,’ banking agents. About social consequences, the conclusion of the book Race Against the Machine is overly optimistic. The question of the repartition of value added between capital and workforce is still open, and the massive tax-evasion strategies of companies like Google or Apple are a great part of the problem Most investment cycles for planes, trains are very long, and 10 years will not be sufficient to see a huge change in that domain. What will be most noticeable is the disappearance of downtown shops or offices. But I think that, as usual, AI and robotics will remain mostly invisible to the population.”
An independent academic research consultant wrote, No. “I don’t think we’ll be there yet in 2025. I think in 2025, we’ll still be developing these applications and will continue to need human workers to further develop them. By 2075, maybe. We’ll be subjected to increased surveillance and will have less control and autonomy in our lives—more of our choices will be made for us instead of entrusted to us. We will increasingly be managed by the technology in our lives—employers, via ‘employee health’ programs, and insurance companies (as a condition of issuing policies) will require us to use technology to track and report health-related data (exercise, food intake, blood pressure, etc.), pushing us closer to the Big Brother surveillance state that Orwell feared in 1984. I don’t think it’s primarily the government we need to fear, in terms of surveillance, though—it’s the companies that will recognize the power of surveillance technologies to increase their profit margins by a) controlling our behavior to their interest; and b) analyzing as much data from us as possible to reduce the margin of error. One potential positive outcome, though, is that more elderly and severely disabled individuals will be able to feel they have more autonomy, living in their homes or at least outside of nursing homes, for longer—remote sensing technology can already detect falls and automatically alert rescue personnel, for example. AI will also enable education to be more individualized and adaptive so that students can learn at their own pace.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “New technology tends to change what jobs are required. It may eliminate some jobs with automation, but tends to create new jobs to maintain the new technology and new businesses utilizing the technology. The length of time required for the job market to even out after a major technological change can involve generations. It is likely to have a major impact on blue-collar job loss by 2025 as those tend to be the ones that involve the least amount of technical skill and can be more easily automated. White-collar jobs that focus on services and various forms of IT support and maintenance are likely to increase.“
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “Many service jobs—retail, foodservice—will be displaced by AI. Transportation will change.”
A strategy and business intelligence manager for a major city library in the US responded, Yes. “Robotic advances and AI will continue to displace jobs that don’t require advanced skills and education. Although equipment failures can and will occur with robotic devices, the economic impact will be less than the same ‘failures’ with humans. Continuous learning will be required for both blue and white-collar jobs that will be a major disruption for many people. The American education system needs to move from a focus on sending every child to a traditional college to a system where every child’s potential is assessed and learning created for that style (visual, auditory, kinetic, etc.) and a career path is created that works for him or her. People skills will continue to be ever more imperative so learning must incorporate emotional intelligence as well.”
A market researcher for a technology company wrote, No. “There will be increased demand for people to oversee AI tools in order for them to be effectively integrated into our daily lives. Self-driving cars and robotic personal assistants will become more normal by 2025, though I don’t think they will be universal.”
An information science professional based in Colorado responded, Yes. “Unfortunately, while this type of technology should encourage job creation, if we continue in the path of non-science or technology illogical thinking that engulfs our educational system, we will not be able to catch up with the technology corporations are selling. Susan Again, with an economic imbalance that exists in our country we can never see these innovative inventions be part of the ordinary landscape. However, for those who can afford it, they will be encouraged to think less.”
A professor of journalism at a state university in Minnesota, responded, Yes. “More blue-collar than white-collar jobs will be affected. It’s easier to replace doers than thinkers. For example, the march of computerization will continue, i.e. cashiers are being displaced by computers in supermarkets. Eventually, retail store employees may be working alongside robotic ‘pockets’ at online stores’ warehouses. Home, work, school and transportation will all be affected by artificial intelligence. Acceptance will grow as the ‘digital native’ generation comes of age, and if the technology functions reliably.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “These advances should allow for more fulfilling work for the people, that are now, doing what they themselves see as demeaning. If we are smart we will learn to tap into the power of our own intellect’s and leverage these inevitable changes in our world because they will exist in the relative background, as with most changes that have been happening since the technology renaissance began, we will adopt them as commonplace and what we have learned to expect.”
A healthcare entrepreneur replied, No. “Just as washing machines increased productivity for domestic workers and created an ecosystem of repair persons, I believe that there will be a natural shift in where people exert their efforts. Mundane, routine tasks will be automated or potentially outsourced where capacity exists.”
A retired network administrator formerly with the US Department of Commerce commented, No. “The work skills will be forced to change to accommodate the technology; lack of skills will not be an option for employment or government assistance. Some technology will acceptably blend into the social fabric, with no distinction between rich and poor. Parts in medicine, health care, and transportation, those that serve the most people will advance first.”
An information science professional at Iona College wrote, Yes. “While there will be a steady increase in demand for engineers and computer programmers, trends have already shown that technology support does not create as many jobs as it takes away. I think that for most things, people will still prefer to deal with human beings. There are a lot of things that AI is great for—mainly replacing repetitive manual labor positions—but it is unlikely that any AI will ever be developed which has the same capacity for non-linear problem solving that the human mind has.”
The managing director of the consulting division at a major US-based digital, creative, and marketing company commented, No. “In some industries we will likely see more automated and artificial intelligence. I don’t believe that there will ever be a complete substitute for interacting with humans and the way we reason. I believe that many simple tasks that can be outsourced will be part of the AI and robotics landscape (i.e., cleaning house, being able to turn on appliances while away from home, telematics etc.).”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “Human exception monitoring and decision-making skills will be required to manage these new technologies and they will not be universally implemented around the globe.”
A higher education technology support professional wrote, Yes. “It’s fairly typical for automation of any type to displace more jobs than it creates—at least within that particular industry, so I expect this will be no different. In the United States, where I live, I don’t yet expect robots to be a significant part of, say, households or the everyday experience of shopping, etc. for most Americans, even by 2025, mostly because of American attitudes towards ‘robots”. I think it’ll take a little longer for robotics to leaves industry and the hidden parts of American life before they’ll be a significant part of the ordinary landscape of American life as it might, say, Japanese life.”
A US government research professional responded, Yes. “To the extent that these advances disrupt the service economy, they will have a major impact on our economy, which is service based. It will likely have an impact of making service jobs very low paying, physical labor and will also probably create a highly skilled class of jobs for coding and technological innovation. There will likely be a major impact on current skilled service jobs. See above— less skilled physical labor and services should remain unchanged. I expect that AI and robotics will have a major impact on the general population in the next decade.”
A researcher based at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government observed, No. “In the short term, industries will be disrupted and jobs lost; there will be more ‘churn’ in the labor market. But the net gain over decades will mean more work is ultimately available, as more online services and products are personalized and as authentic, artisan products and services become more valued by society.”
The senior director for digital media at a healthcare nonprofit wrote, No. “Such innovations and inventions will accelerate job growth beyond the rate of jobs displaced. Safety. Human error will be removed from more of what we do. There will be fewer accidental deaths.”
A communications professional with the Massachusetts Department of Public Health replied, No. “The net jobs total will probably stay the same; specific jobs, however, will change. History will repeat itself, as it has with other major economic transitions.”
An editor focused on how technology affects policy and society for a major US-based online news organization responded, Yes. “This is not my area of expertise, but I feel that we should at least prepare for a future in which automation continues to replace people. Eventually, new jobs—particularly new types of jobs—will indeed be created, but I do not think it will happen by 2025. “
A new-media researcher and teacher at a university of approximately 10,000 students in New York City wrote, No. “This kind of displacement is coming, but there is too much still to be worked out on the AI side for displacement to be widespread in just 11 years. The better target date is 2050 for when white-collar jobs to be fully disrupted by digital agents, AI and robots. Blue-collar jobs are already impacted by these advances to the point that more jobs are displaced than created. There is sadly a darn good chance that much of education will be taken oven by digital agents, AI, and robotics by 2025 given the obsession with measurement being imposed upon public education by the ruling elites.”
A professional who works for a US university public health program replied, No. “I actually think AI will lead to more tech jobs in the future since this is just beginning to open up to a wide consumer audience. Consumers will demand more automation and someone will have to develop it. And then it will have to be perfected to be acceptable to consumers. Right now, there seems to be some distrust about whether you would actually allow a computer to drive your car but everyone accepts simple robots, like Roomba. I think automation in the household will change the way we live. It will hopefully simplify all the disparate technologies we now have, so there will be ‘whole house’ digital solutions for home security, sound systems. thermostats, appliances, power usage (lights, etc.), networking. Hopefully one system will oversee all the home automation. Another area is surgical/medical advances. The more precise surgery becomes with the use of AI/robotics, the more medicine can advance.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I imagine there will be a net-zero job loss/gain due to the impact of robotic advances and AI. While certain types of jobs will undergo tremendous job losses, others will rise significantly. Whether or not the people loosing jobs can take advantage of new jobs will be the biggest challenge. Our currently education and job-training systems do not seem prepared for this dramatic shift. 2025 is really just around the corner, I suspect that for many people their daily interactions with these technologies will fairly superficial—many new gadgets may be available at both the high and low ends of the marketplace but I don’t think they will be fully integrated into the ordinary landscape that soon. For example, it’s unlikely that our transportation infrastructure will be completely revamped and able to exclusively accommodate driverless cars by 2025. On the other hand, it’s possible that AI and robotics will be fairly integrated into the ‘background’ infrastructure of medicine, marketing, intelligence networks, etc., to such a degree that it’s barely notices by many.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “The job structure surrounding the activity changes in such a way that the actual number of jobs does not decrease but what they are changes. The issue is about job retraining as the new jobs usually require more sophistication than the previous ones.”
A supporter of the ICT entrepreneurship ecosystem in Europe wrote, No. “It has always been a tech illusion to believe that robots will replace humans.”
A PhD candidate in educational technology commented, No. “I don’t think the technology is quite there yet. While I imagine some prototypes will be refined, improved upon, and possibly even implemented in the next few years, I don’t believe it will done on a mass scale (yet). However, by 2035, I would imagine this would be true.”
A professor at Florida State University responded, Yes. “While some new jobs and career types are created in the IT sector and in research and development, once some robotic devices have become standardized and mass produced, efficiencies will also be sought in their design, production, and maintenance. We may see more capital intensity in production processes as a result, and more capital intensity in household and consumer items that are smarter and hence cost more to buy and maintain.”
A government-based program specialist replied, Yes. “This is already happening, see the trend continuing instead of halting or reversing.”
A marketing and trend consultant wrote, Yes. “Minor, but on absolute math yes more jobs displaced. Minor, industry still unwilling to invest significantly in AI.”
A former technology policy advisor the US Congress and the Clinton Administration who now works for a Fortune 20 communications company wrote, Yes. “Blue-collar and white-collar jobs worldwide will be under pressure, especially when you can introduce low cost robotics.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “We have already seen the impact of machines on our industrial base, and with the advancement of digital agents and AI tools, those impacts will extend into the white-collar careers as well. We already see the impact of programmatic buying in the digital media-buying environment. Humans will still be needed to oversee these processes, but jobs will be lost in the transition, and a different set of job skills will be necessary to achieve success.”
A student at the University of Western Ontario responded, Yes. “I doubt that the nature of the economy will be able to change as quickly as technological advances would demand. In the near term, I would guess we’ll see increasing job insecurity, and insecurity in the economy generally, along with continuing downward pressure on wages. Could be too, though, that we’ll see an increase in small-scale entrepreneurship as jobs with living wages become more scarce.”
An online marketing professional for a medical publisher replied, No. “Well, you’ve elaborated in this follow up in terms of blue-collar and white-collar jobs. There is potential to create jobs, but focused around certain skill sets, and available to people with the financial and educational advantages. Without economic and educational opportunity, I think the divide between the haves and have-nots will continue to grow, and I’m afraid of what will happen to those who are not highly educated and financially advantaged, or who do not have a trade that could not be automated (plumbers, electricians, etc.) The population of workers in retail, food services, etc., who cannot afford basic living expenses will continue to grow. I can see a lot of manufacturing jobs getting replaced as well. I hope to never see a self-driving car. I hope to never have surgery performed on me by a robot. I can see certain, repetitive tasks being handled this way (manufacturing, factory work), but I don’t think human intelligence will become obsolete. I don’t think we’re going to be living like the Jetsons in 11 short years.”
Norman Weekes, a volunteer for a non-profit commented, Yes. “Taxi drivers, bus drivers, mass transit and many college professors will go the way of the milkman. Norman Weekes-Service industries and low wage jobs will displace more workers. Jobs involving complex relationships will remain intact.”
An information science professional replied, No. “There may be disruption in the job market, job training and education but with so much robotic activity, there will surely be a need for jobs to create devices and support them. One can imagine that AI and robotics for cars would become enormously popular and pervasive if they are for safety measures. Also likely to increase are smart household components (a/c, electricity, security, kitchen appliances, etc.). It may be like the house in Ray Bradbury’s short story There Will Come Soft Rains, which is set in 2026! Hopefully, the situation that we have now, with so many multiple platforms and devices that cannot interact, will be resolved.”
A director for research and instruction at the library of a major US private university commented, No. “Robots will replace jobs. But think of the jobs that will be created around the robots—it will be a wash, job-wise. We will use robots most for small jobs—lifestyle improvements.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “There will be retraining necessary, and different kinds of jobs. Years ago, in futures study, we were all told that we would have more leisure time. That has not been a reality. Possibly, we can go back to that prediction, and work hours will not be overwhelming as they are for many now. Wouldn’t it be nice if we followed the European model and had more vacation time, yet more people were employed? These tools will be second nature in all areas. With 3D printing impacting manufacturing, and the ability to make things in almost a cottage-type industry basis, I can’t even imagine what the future will be like.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, No. “The technology to manufacture and maintain these robotic devices will create more jobs than they will displace. AI and advanced CGI programming will be a normal part of everyday life. People will interact seamlessly with AI, and will generally be unaware of whether they are communicating with a person or an app.”
An anonymous survey respondent wrote, No. “Anyone who has used an automated system and become frustrated understands the need of ‘personal touch’ to combat systems doing something we don’t want them to do.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, Yes. “This always happens. I see it in my job. One machine has displaced four people—I doubt that four people have *new* jobs making the machine or digging up the metal to make up the machine or transporting/installing it. This has been happening since the printing press put scribes out of business- and probably earlier. Don’t know enough about them to comment.”
An anonymous survey respondent wrote, No. “We will continue to find jobs replaced by robotic devices but I don’t think that there will be more jobs loss than created. The problem in my opinion is that the types of jobs created often require very different skills sets than those that have been lost to robots and often in very different locations. So for individuals losing their job, there may be no jobs for them to move into. As a society we need to think about ways to help support these individuals in creating new employment opportunities not only through job retraining but also through job creation.“
An anonymous survey participant replied, Yes. “AI will definitely continue to impact lower level positions such as secretaries, clerks, attendances, and lower level decision making processes (blue-collar roles). However, there will continue to be a need for those who are able to facilitate automation (white-collar roles). I do also believe Web design processes will be impacted in the since there will be more services that allow users to simple pick a design and post with even more flexibility. Expanding on my thought above. Anything that requires planning and then implementation will be impacted by AI. This is a broad comment, but I think people will be able select standard designs. This can relate to cars, buildings, Web products, and more. While customization will still be available, it will be more structured and based on who can offered the differentiation in the market.”
An anonymous survey respondent wrote, No. “Jobs will change. Different skill sets will be needed along with education. 20th century blue-collar jobs will not exist as they had in the past. Manufacturing will probably change the most. As robots are developed to do manual labor, the same jobs will not exist. Also, robotic technology is advancing how medical procedures are done but that does not reduce the need for medical professionals.”
An anonymous survey participant replied, Yes. “I am pessimistic that there is a solution to globalization.”
An anonymous survey respondent wrote, Yes. “Although we want to believe that more jobs will be created, that would only impact the R&D sector, and I believe it won’t be a significant number long-term. Yes, we will need workers to repair and maintain those robots but it won’t be in the same balance. If a couple of robots can build a vehicle, for example, and one maintenance worker services the robots, that is vastly different from the current automotive assembly line.”
The communications manager for a museum wrote, No. “Changes in the way we do things often change the kinds of jobs that are available. Just as the loss of blue-collar jobs has recently led to rise in service-focused jobs, I expect (hope) that this new way of working will lead to a different kind of job market. Perhaps less blue-collar. I think it will be a major part of our landscape but I have trouble imagining what that will mean. I feel like the world is striving to balance human contact with more efficient and automated ways of working and hope that we’ll continue to integrate technology into our lives in efficient and productive, but healthy ways.”
An information science professional based in Ohio responded, No. “The amount of new technology needed to create these systems will exponentially increase the number of human beings needed to design, build, operate and maintain these systems. They will be ubiquitous but not in the way most people think. Not robot housekeepers, but smaller single function systems like blood pressure monitors with the ability to respond to the individual and make suggestions.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Energy will be unreliable so human workers will have more value life will remain relatively unchanged.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “I would be shocked if AI does not replace jobs like fast food order taker and some elements of customer service, but would hope that robotics would serve more of an off-loading role, taking the tedious elements from some jobs. Ideally, I think a future in which AI serves as a directing force or a go-between to help funnel humans and information correctly. I think most parts of life will be touched by AI and robotics, with the change being most drastic in normal day-to-day life. More devices will be integrated with AI and advanced connectivity and analytics to help us more closely monitor and control ‘background’ aspects of our lives (I see this already happening with the Nest thermostat, Belkin’s new WiFi-enabled line of home products, ideas for WiFi-enabled mailboxes, etc.).”
An information science professional wrote, No. “I really don’t think it will have a major impact. Jobs will certainly be different (less factory workers perhaps) but no matter what jobs robotics and AI apps will ‘take’ it seems logical that other jobs will be created. For example, who will take care of these machines? I suppose in the sense that jobs will change it could be said that there will be a disruption but I’m not sure it will take away a large number of jobs. By 2025 expect a high degree of change. I imagine (and hope!) a lot of the more-mundane tasks such as driving a car will be made much easier and more automated. Self-service/DIY will probably become even more common as well—at check-out stations, perhaps even in the medical field.”
An information science professional in Massachusetts replied, No. “New types of jobs will be developed as a result. It’s quite likely that the jobs will be largely white-collar and require an expertise in STEM.”
A writer, website operator, and technical consultant for local and wide area networking responded, No. “Many jobs will disappear. Many more will be created. In the items mentioned in the question, things like self-driving cars and even useful general purpose robots are parlor tricks compared to AI applications assuming you mean things that mimic human brain functions like understanding meanings in languages. Will robots paint my house? Plant my garden? Weed my garden? Change the baby’s diaper? Put fuel of whatever sort is being used into any vehicle that drives into a station? I have to say ‘no’ to all those. Could things like empty the dishwasher be automated or mechanized? Maybe, not by a C3PO/Robbie general-purpose device, and not unless there are major ancillary changes in home design and management. A reliable and non-intrusive general-purpose maid, butler, or handyman robot is as much of a pipe dream as a reliable and non-intrusive general purpose human maid, butler, or handyman.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “That’s a trend already, and I see no reason to believe that it will end.”
An information science professional in Connecticut commented, Yes. “Robots and AI will probably replace jobs across job sectors as they become more reliable, available, and affordable. I think we are starting to see an interesting backlash in some fields, especially with companies like Etsy, with greater interest and value being placed on handmade, individualized goods, so I think there will continue to be a market for those.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “It seems as if it might be an Industrial Revolution as a Technological Revolution. They could be used as any repeated activity—I can only hope that it won’t replace human interaction (especially for children) any more than it already has.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Postal workers, truck drivers, train engineers, fast food kitchen staff, public transportation staff, delivery services, grocery checkout clerks. Well on its way. Depends—the more the push for higher minimum wage and regulation and tax hikes for businesses, the more we will see robotics implemented in business.”
A self-employed attorney wrote, No. “We will try to have AI complement our lives, but the more and more technology we incorporate, the more complex our lives become. Like computers, we once thought we would be paperless, but how paperless have we really become? As far as robotics, I do see them continue to replace the general unspecialized manufacturing that was once the staple of assembly line employment. Even a machine can’t build a machine unless there are human hands to build the first machine. AI/robotics will see tremendous impact in the ordinary landscape in our homes. New builds will become smarter and smarter. The problem is of course, how to incorporate ‘smart home’ technology in our aging housing stock.”
An anonymous respondent wrote No. “Traditional blue-collar jobs are gone; you still need to have people to program the bots and service them, though—these are where the jobs will be. Ignoring your math and science education will be at your future economic peril.”
A personal coach, author, and speaker wrote, Yes. “If machines are doing all of the work, what is happening to the human energy and strength? Will humans then be mined in another way, to power something dreadful? We need less machines, robots and things doing work for us. This is why we are obese, depressed and feeling displaced…because we are. Drones are already popping up in each segment of society. It will be normal that humans interact with robots and machines more. They will probably be used to control the population who has been displaced.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “There will be more impact to blue-collar jobs as it is already happening. White-collar impact will occur in selected areas, like technical support.”
An information science professional based in Delaware responded, No. “It will actually require more manpower to keep up the maintenance and quality control of the end result that the robot is working with. Building of homes, bridges, jobs that highly dangerous would be best benefitted from robotics.”
A retired educational technologies specialist commented, Yes. “Robotic and AI devices will displace current jobs but the job market will continue to evolve. New jobs and areas of need will emerge in other ways. Any part of life that requires one-on-one human contact now will continue unchanged. Any mechanized part of life now will be the areas in which future robotic and AI will continue to improve and enhance.”
An information science professional at a major US school of medicine commented, No. “2025 may be a decade away, but I don’t think robots and AI will reduce that many jobs. Self-driving cars are in development but for them to be in use in only a decade requires massive amounts of change and that’s not going to happen between bow and 2025. I think it’s much more likely that we’ll see legislation against additional digital access in automobiles between now and then than self-driving cars. As for robotics in blue-collar work—maybe. I don’t know. Robotics and AI in white-collar work? Maybe—but again, I think it much more likely that the next trend in white-collar work will be high touch (think human interaction) than robotics or AI. No one likes telephone trees and automated ‘customer service”. There will have to be quite a few incredible changes between now and then for either of these to have a huge impact on jobs as far as I can see.”
A retired systems programmer and security specialist in mainframe systems replied, Yes. “Corporate greed trumps everything else. I don’t expect anything to remain untouched by automation and AI.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “We will continue to see ‘smart’ technology that makes tasks easier, more efficient, etc., but we’ll still need individuals for the maintenance, development, interpretation of the data, and the related customer service.”
A retired longtime IT professional wrote, No. “Jobs will have CHANGED much as they did during the industrial revolution, and the countries who do the best job of educating their people for the new job culture will survive. I HOPE I will have a car that drives itself!”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The real difficulty I see is what do the people do for jobs? There will not be enough high-skill, low-education-required jobs. Even now there is a sea of hamburger-slinging jobs and a dearth of higher-earning blue-collar work. Will there be a need for a massive number of repair people to fix all the broken automata or will that be self-repairing or disposable? If the latter, then still what will people do for work? Perhaps society needs to get over the (antiquated?) notion of pulling ones own weight and morph that into a pulling ‘our’ weight. Could we take idle hands and minds and compensate them for artistic, philosophical and innovative thinking, simply for the sake of engaging in those things?”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Robots, digital agents, and AI tools will still require heavy controls at the hands of white-collar workers. Blue-collar jobs have already been displaced by robots as much as they will be. Convenience will drive the marketplace for AI and robotics. Hybrid versions of self-driving cars, ‘smart’ houses and the like will be at the forefront.”
An attorney working on digital and library issues for the federal government commented, No. “I expect that white-collar jobs will be particularly impacted by displacement. Most of the impact on blue-collar jobs has already be felt, although the impact on service industry jobs like food service and childcare is an unknown. I also anticipate that global outsourcing will be impacted as AI tools become cheaper than even underpaid human beings. However, I hope that the net will be increased employment and quality of life. We may work fewer hours, but the jobs will be better. For example, there will be fewer lawyers doing document review—and perhaps fewer lawyers altogether—but legal work will be more interesting. And there will be more work for programmers and techies. One of the interesting questions is the impact of robotic advances and AI on education. I don’t see any decrease in the number of teachers or professors—but I do see a change in their jobs. One major change will be a substantial reduction in office space—and office dynamics—as more people telecommute. This trend is already well underway—with the effective management of teleworkers lagging seriously behind. I anticipate that this issue will be partly solved by 2015—and that by that time we will be facing a backlash by people who prefer to work in physical proximity. Presumably we’ll have a choice?”
An Internet user wrote, No. “I hope these robots and digital agents and Al tools will instead expand the jobs available to humans. If used properly they will give humans the skills to do better jobs. Wish I could see into the future to know this. I would become wealthy. I am 66 years old and I know how dramatically my life has changed by access to those elements available today. I can only hope that the changes will be so enfolded into everyday life that they will not appear to be as dramatic as people fear.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “We already have seen how many manufacturing functions have been taken over by robots and I am afraid that it will only grow. With the invention of CNC software and machines and 3Dprinters more functions will do mechanized not less. I am sure that robot vacuums are only the tip of the iceberg as far as home adaptations. I would not be surprised to see robot lawn mowers or snow blowers. I’m sure houses will be wired for more sophisticated functions beyond security and observation.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Robots will continue to replace humans in some industries. Robots do not have all the skill sets that humans have and therefore they will not be able to do all of their work. I also believe that jobs will be created for robot repair, maintenance, and construction. I think that up to 50% of security/police jobs may be replaced with robots/AI. They would be more difficult to disable and potentially save more people. I do not foresee change in customer service positions; people expect a personal experience that a robot/AI cannot provide.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. Given the current state of education in this country, I cannot see that enough people will be well enough trained to balance the jobs lost to technology. So my answer is just based on things as they are now—2025 in only 11 years away. Medical care will be changed the most—perhaps a Skype-type experience for a doctor visit with apps to measure things like heart rate and blood pressure. I believe human nature will, as always, remain the same and people will always find ways to connect despite the advances in technology.
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Society will become more ‘McDonaldsized.’ Things will become more one-size-fits-all unless the robotic algorithms can account for all nuances that people can. More self-serve/machine-serve in stores, restaurants, medicine.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Technology has already reduced a number of jobs (in manufacturing, for instance.) While there are likely many science and tech jobs right now to develop these technologies, the overall impact will probably be fewer jobs since these technologies will make the economy more efficient and businesses will have to hire fewer people. I feel like these things are already part of the landscape to some degree. The most noticeable change would probably be self-driving cars. I feel like this would be a hard thing for many people to adjust to.”
An information science professional responded, No. “Some workers may be displaced, but an upcoming generation of workers with the necessary skills to create, maintain and implement AI and robotic technology will emerge. An average worker born in 2000, by 2025, could have a degree in a technology related field and capable of using said technology. In 11 years, those currently in a job that may bring on more of this technology may need to increase their continuing education requirements in order to compete with new hires. It’s the same story told for quite a long time now. In 11 years, robotics will increase in self-service modules, payment machines and tolls, but less in the wild imaginations of sci-fi worlds such as the film TheFifth Element. Self-driving cars will not replace our current vehicles by this time, nor should they.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Networked, automated, artificial intelligence (AI) applications, and robotic devices will continue to need human workers to develop, maintain, and work around them.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Robots and computers can only do what they are told to do. Human oversight is needed in creating and controlling them.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “New jobs will arise out of these technologies that may surpass, or possibly equal, the jobs lost. AI and robotics will be everywhere. Just as we now think nothing of using an ATM or using GPS, AI and robotics will be part of everyday life. As these tools advance, they will impact interactions in public, such as shopping, dining, communication, transportation, and more. What won’t change is human irrationality and our tendency toward violence. The new technologies will be used for good by most people, but there will be those who use them to commit crimes or to engage in other antisocial behaviors. Change can bring both good and bad results.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “I have already seen this happen with warehouses using automated systems that no longer need humans to run equipment.”
The director of operations for an Internet company wrote, No. “This question is a setup basically asking ‘Are robots going to take our jobs’ Nothing about robots means that this has to be the case but, again, if it makes money for businesspeople and this is an optimal outcome for them, then of course it’s what will happen.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Not so much white-collar, but repetitive jobs are easily displaced. And of course the rich get richer and the underclass continues to grow rapidly.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “I am not convinced that AIs will have advanced far enough to replace the remaining workforce by then. I feel that the current status quo has gone too far to automation—with the result that the few humans employed in my industry are overworked trying to make up for what the automated tasks fail to do properly. If we could afford to hire more humans, our products would definitely improve in quality and our workplace would improve in morale. But executives keep trying to cut costs by automating, which just displaces the burden of making up for automation’s deficiencies onto the few humans left (who of course work in salaried positions with no overtime compensation). The only ‘efficiencies’ at the moment are due to humans who work long hours and take little time off. I have no idea, but despite my answer above I am curious to see!”
An information science professional at large, public Research I university responded, Yes. “I don’t think the US will be able to develop the necessary STEM talent pool to support those jobs. Our workforce is not very agile, and with the deep cuts to education (K-12 and all higher education, including technical schools) our technical prowess has diminished. I hope that we will have smarter homes to increase energy efficiency, smarter cars to increase efficiency and safety, and smarter medical devices to increase health.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Technology is making it so that companies need less workers. The problem is that’s killing the economy in general while making the richest 1% richer. We look to be headed smack-dab into a world that resembles the classic movie Metropolis, and it scares me. Technology is amazing—but it looks to be the way the monetary Kings get their thrones back after a few hundred years of change.”
An activist Internet user replied, Yes. “There will heightened usage of new technologies, making employment difficult for those that do not have technological backgrounds to create and sustain these systems. This will be a major shift in the social structure in America and unless education recreates itself to meet the changing workforce needs, unemployment may rise again.”
An information science professional commented, No. “Artificial intelligence is just that— artificial. While robots may replace people in manufacturing, someone has to manufacture and develop the robots. I think as the robots grow in blue-collar businesses, the people developing the robots will also grow.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Many people will need to be retrained to survive in the digital age. I worry about the less educated. I think the movie Her is not too off the mark. People will become increasingly isolated from each other.”
An information science professional replied, No. “I hope that robotics and driverless cars especially will advance, but I also hope that any jobs lost will be replaced. Someone has to build and program the robots. In libraries, I hope automated handling systems continue to become more popular. If items are in storage, robots can retrieve them. I hope to see more advances at home and in the medical field. Kitchen, laundry, cleaning and medical devices as well as surgical robots would be wonderful. Again though, someone has to operate them and someone has to manufacture them. Hopefully those people are in the US.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “These items are advancing quickly but I don’t foresee their being perfected or accepted broadly enough by 2025 to replace many jobs. In newer infrastructures (maybe high-speed rail that’s designed for it?) perhaps they could implement self-driving to some extent; however so much of our transportation and manufacturing infrastructure is older and would have to be extensively retrofitted to support AI, so much so that the AI won’t be adopted even if it is is cheaper or safer in the long run. Funding of these things, especially public ones, will probably continue to be considered in the short-term sense. I foresee more usage of computers for monetary exchanges; for instance, touch screens for ordering food or taking tickets; however, I think adoption for more extensive interaction will be slow. There may even be a backlash against use of automated systems; for example, corporate use of automated help programs has gotten to the point in many cases where it is nigh on impossible to reach a live human being through phone or chat, and I can foresee customers rebelling against this one way or another.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “This is not a subject about which I know a lot. I have a general sense that 10 years is a pretty short time frame for large scale change—AI applications will probably have a profound effect on society, but over a longer time period. Don’t really have an opinion about this.”
A retired Information science professional commented, Yes. “Automated tools will replace more and more and higher and higher skill level jobs until the level of unemployment becomes chronic and great enough to cause mass unrest. No one seems to be connecting the unemployment levels throughout the world with the overpopulation. No one seems willing to deal with the fact that, as long as people continue to have as many children as they want when there are insufficient jobs, without high enough pay, and without broad enough welfare for the poor and unemployed, social unrest, crime—domestic and international organized—and mass migration will become more and more disruptive. A great degree. Rote jobs in manufacturing, service, and low-skill white-collar will be largely replaced by robots.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Jobs will be displaced but new jobs will be created… and not only super-tech jobs. Jobs using the technologies for personal entertainment and personal time and money management will increase as well as those needed to maintain and grow the infrastructure. More need for educators, too. AI will be more available to individuals comfortable with computing. Robotics will create efficiencies in industrial settings and medicine but not in home and family life. Robotics may also have a role in the future of warfare and defense… especially related to weapons and space exploration. Why should young men and women die when robots can die?”
An author and editor replied, No. “The initial question used the word ‘displace,’ while the follow-up used ‘disrupt,’ and I believe the later wording fits what I anticipate what is occurring and will continue to occur. Jobs will still be available, but they will be different, and will require new training/education.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “Robots will displace anyone who drives a vehicle for a living. They will take over building maintenance and some blue-collar jobs. I believe there may be a revolution, followed by a more socialistic economy and government. The robots will be used to better distribute food and other necessities of life.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. “I believe this is a ‘perfect storm’ scenario when combined with the current status of higher education. The advancement in AI tools and robots will eliminate many jobs and even sectors, but will also create jobs in terms of production, software development, and maintenance. The issue is that with no well-established apprenticeship in these fields, it is up to the education system to produce a large number of people to fill these jobs. This will be difficult to do as the higher education system reboots itself to accommodate a growing number of people that cannot get the education due to higher costs + an unsustainable education debt ceiling.”
The vice president of a major public association in the US wrote, Yes. “As the Baby Boomers age out of the workforce, the need for AI and robotics will increase. And, Gen X and the Millennials are more comfortable with engaging with this technology. Both the highly skilled (such as robotic surgery) and minimum wage (cashiering, bank tellers etc.) will be impacted to a great extent. Jobs that require reasoning or direct management will have less impact, at least at first.”
An information science professional commented, Yes. “Money seems to be the bottom line in our society, and if it is less expensive to replace people with robots it will be done. Already many jobs have been lost. Think of the self-checkouts at many stores and libraries, the ATM machines, Red Box movies, etc.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Robotic advancements and AI will create changes in available jobs, but for every person no longer needed to perform automatable functions a new job will be available in design, creation, maintenance, and repair of new devices.”
A digital information specialist for a nonprofit organization, replied, Yes. “There will always be more and more task that are able to be automated as technology advances. Whether AI will be driving it by 2025, I doubt it. I think robotics will continue to make inroads (like the vacuuming robots of today), and marketing algorithms will get progressively more intelligent though not obtaining true cognition.”
An anonymous respondent replied, “Yes and no. I believe a lot of jobs will be replaced but then there will be more types of jobs in the techno world for creation and developing. I also feel we will have a need for service where people will want to have human interaction and help.“
An information science professional commented, No. “Unless the return on investment is assured, quick and profits are better. ‘Ordinary landscape’ ? I see their role more behind the scenes as a tool for efficiency and accuracy, but seeing these up close and in public areas—I’m thinking not so much.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “2025 is too early for this to happen. I expect it will happen after much trial and error—more like 20 years from now. The likely social consequences of a large population without employable skills are frightening. The income gap will lead to serious social consequences including an increase in violence. Personal, in-home use may be more widespread. Advances that could affect public safety will lag.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The perception is that robotic devices are more efficient and less likely to cause errors than human workers. In the long run they will be cheaper to replace, there will be no cost for benefits or having to work with unions. AI tools will make decisions based on fact or logic. Many blue-collar factory jobs will ultimately be replaced by robotic devices.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Jobs will shift, not disappear. More ‘self-check’ options at stores, libraries, etc.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “I wish you would allow for ‘I don’t know’ on this question. Overall, robotic advances and AI will eventually displace more jobs than they create. We already see that in effect with the continued high US unemployment figures in spite of an economic recovery. But I don’t think that a large degree of displacement will happen by 2025. By 2025, by a low degree. There will be self-driven cars in the future, but again, 2025 seems too soon for there to be more than a handful available. For one thing, the cost will be prohibitive, and state laws will undoubtedly be passed to control their use around driver-controlled cars. Manufacturing is the area I feel will be most changed by robots by 2025, as we are already seeing that happen.”
An information science professional said, No. “These things will have expanded, but also other opportunities will open up.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “I worry so much about this! People argue about raising the minimum wage, or job creation, but the reality is we can’t support such a huge population, and the more jobs that are replaced with automation, the more drain there is on society. No one ever talks about responsible population growth as part of the solution, and in the interim we keep touting automation as a key to making life easier. The middle class has been shrinking for a few decades, as blue-collar jobs are replaced with machines. And there are only so many white-collar jobs that people can aspire to—at least until the government steps in and ‘creates’ jobs by regulating everything to death. Judging from the stories about iPads at restaurant tables to order and pay, and drones delivering pizza, and mechanical pharmacists, I expect the landscape will change slightly. However, service industries are called that because people want service—usually from other people. Self checkout lines have been around for a number of years, but stores still have plenty of lines with real people as cashiers.”
A PhD, organizational consultant and researcher, and adjunct graduate school professor replied, No. “It depends if you are asking nationally or internationally on the job question. If we are talking nationally then the overall population bolus of baby boomers will largely have passed through the job market and so fewer people will be in working roles in this country. With rapid advancement certain IT AI jobs may require very little other than short, specialized training so blue-collar jobs may transit into AI-type areas (as has happened currently with the low paying tech sector jobs). Since we now think of white-collar jobs as ‘educated’ or ‘higher earning’ perhaps these people will further stratify since so many are graduating with inflated-title degrees but few skills. I see job skills resting largely with employers rather than academia, with multiple, serial, and overlapping skills acquired on an as-needed basis in situ at the workplace. Perhaps this could result in an ever-greater gap between the technically skilled and the purely conceptual academic—a new kind of 1% Unchanged may be voluntary DIY labor such as digging in your own garden. Since I foresee a gain in co-housing and multiple, centralized neighborhood housing, the degree of new construction needed may foster built-in and expected automated home services and conveniences that we cannot yet see as the process of such evolution is iterative.”
An information science professional responded, No. “Although I expect more advanced robots to be used in industry, the cost will be too prohibitive for more advanced AI tools to be developed and/or created for widespread usage. I do not see these as replacing jobs but as changing jobs. Some degree, but not as much as may be expected due to the costs involved in development and usage. Changing might involve more repetitive jobs and greater improvement in use in the sciences, such as medicine and exploration. There may be more AI for entertainment but only by the wealthy.”
A retired Information science professional wrote, Yes. “White-collar jobs may grow but not enough to offset the reduction in blue-collar workers.”
An information science professional replied, No. “As with all emerging industries, the more widespread the technology and adoption of it, the more companies will capitalize on it. These are the jobs of the future. The service industry will be most effected—fast food, and hospitality are some examples.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “There will be movement in that direction, but don’t know that the numbers will be more than what’s been created. I do think there will be plenty of places where they will replace humans and be more accurate, yet there are other positions that will always require humans.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Automation of manufacturing will continue along with agriculture. Blue-collar jobs will require more education especially in information technology in order to monitor and control these devices. White-collar jobs that require independent judgment will rely more heavily on AI tools for routine data used in decision-making processes. AI will be more widely available in ‘smart’ devices but will not be the norm throughout the general population. Simple robotics will be available but not yet widely adopted. More sophisticated robotics will be beyond the reach of the general population.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “AI will enhance telecommuting opportunities, which benefits both the white-collar information worker and the blue-collar worker who can now perform tasks at home (e.g. repair a vehicle by printing the repair part to a local 3D printer). Communities will become enriched by allowing more services to be locally obtained.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “The market will control for how many jobs are displaced. Displace too many jobs and no one has money to spend, displace not enough and you go out of business. It will be interesting to see how the market adjusts to this dilemma. By 2025 they will play a larger part than today, but not in the way traditionally seen. For example perhaps we will see Rosie the Robot from The Jetsons, but the more likely scenario is AI in use in household appliances and cars—appliances that will remember and adjust their usage by gauging past uses.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Automation will displace more jobs than they create, but this may not totally take effect until after 2025. Companies are still so into cutting costs that they don’t much care that they are rendering people obsolete. Just give robots a salary and purchasing power and the economy may chug along. Robots will take over more factory jobs. Artificial intelligence and software programs are eliminating some white-collar jobs, and this will continue. Driverless cars probably will come, but later. Smart appliances will exist but probably do less than promised.”
An academic librarian wrote, No. “Robots, digital agents and AI tools will not disrupt white-collar and blue-collar jobs by 2025 as laws will not be able to keep pace with the innovations to allow the innovations to be of any use. Self-driving cars are a prime example of this.”
The director of a municipal library commented, No. “I say no, but I am fearful that the answer could be yes. I see a growing gap between have and have-nots; those who can get good educations will continue to have opportunities for highly skilled and high paying jobs. Those who don’t will continue to work below the poverty level and often at PT jobs. My concern is everything in the middle—sustainable working class jobs are going away.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Jobs will be lost to robotic advances at a steady pace. I imagine that the market will eventually keep up. Computers have certainly taken away work, but in some areas they have created more work and frustration.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “The job displacement is farther in the future than 2025. We will still need people to run these projects, implement and design things. May be future jobs in quality assurance created as we lose those in manufacturing. This scares me. We will have smart cars—most likely insurance companies will force it as they reduce accidents. We may have robot nurses/doctors as a first line of medical care. Robots may be answering the phone. Much as I hope for the hair and clothing machine like they have in The Jetsons—home life will be less affected—things like crafts, cooking, sewing etc.. Maybe they will finally make a remote that actually works and controls everything.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “Many routine tasks of living like driving, housecleaning, grocery shopping, etc. will be able to be automated. By 2025, robots will begin making a more noticeable appearance in public venues doing tasks or assisting in tasks.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “I don’t have enough knowledge of economics and workplace trends to provide an insightful answer. I can imagine two scenarios: one in which we are able to labor less (a 25-hour work week) and have more time to spend with family and friends, and pursuing our own interests; a second in which we create further wealth disparity and a huge class of people struggling to find regular work. The economically advantaged will have fewer interactions with most people, and become further distanced.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “If the current trend towards not wanting to work—let someone else take care of me—we will be forced to use more AI—especially for ‘demeaning’ jobs or those that cannot pay over the $20 per hour some people feel they require to even go to work. More and more of these jobs will be replaced with alternative ways of creating a dependable work force. All repetitive, ‘demeaning”, lower paying jobs will be done in some part by AI. They will have to be. The work will have to be done and if a workforce can not be found—we will have to come up with some means of getting the work accomplished.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “This will happen more in other countries than it will in the US. Generally speaking, we can’t get out of our own way on so many levels as a country that even an amazing robot will be sidelined by politicians in order to save jobs. I think we will have more technology than we do now, and that we will have jobs related to that technology, but I don’t know that we will lose many more jobs than we already have of recent date. Factory work could be automated even further, but as it is, we lose those jobs to other countries, so I don’t see it as a significant change.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Most likely because companies are always looking to create greater profits, and robots will not require the benefits that cost their employers the most. Robotics will be part of the tech landscape and prominent in some industries where repetitive tasks are common, but will not be to the point of ‘household robot’ infiltration.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “The increases in productivity that robotics provide, will have narrowed significantly that need for skilled trade jobs, and will have pushed employment opportunities primarily to the service sector. However, that sector also will offer fewer opportunities for gainful employment, and the reduction in the need for workers of any stripe will have created a large pool of unemployable persons.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “Certainly there will be job disruptions due to AI, however I also think that we are surprising resilient as a species, and where one job goes a different one will come in it’s place. AI, along with all advances in technology, continues to point to the extreme need for generations of job seekers with technological background and skills. I think there are going to be some major changes to education in the upcoming years due to this need. We love the idea of self-driving cars and robots that do our laundry (wouldn’t that be great?), however I think we are still very far off from that. There will be more small changes (the car’s system will take over in an accident, more self-service with machines, etc.), however I don’t think 2025 is going to look like a sci-fi movie.”
A self-employed author and consultant wrote, Yes. “Technology will certainly displace more jobs than it creates but that may not be specifically AI. We will need to figure out how to keep unemployed brains active, contributing to society, and fed.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “These tools will have the most impact in manufacturing and the way people interact with machinery such as autos, home appliances. Blue-collar jobs will continue to shift from manufacturing to the service sector. There will be more divide between those who can and can’t afford these gadgets in their personal lives. Education will be more divided, with the poorer districts unable to train for up to date AI skills. As noted above, the greatest change will be in middle to upper-class households. Also primarily in transportation and household maintenance.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “This is happening in my industry to a certain extent. However, it seems that the explosion of technology assisted work product spawns even more human intervention, manipulation and management.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “As long as living beings are demeaned in this world and profits are the key element in society, robots and digital agents will certainly disrupt much blue-collar and white-collar jobs.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “My guess is that automation will continue to disproportionately affect the handful of blue-collar manufacturing jobs that are left in the country, while solving problems with intelligent agents will create some small number of more highly technical jobs.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “I believe that innovation will always ebb and flow, just as machines replaced jobs such as cotton-picking in the past, they will replace other jobs in the future, but other needs will arise.”
An information science professional based in Colorado wrote, Yes. “The impact will be on the blue-collar and non-skilled sections of the economy. We need to figure out a way to employ workers who are unsuited and unprepared for knowledge work. Not everyone will be re-educated, not everyone will be able to take their place in a knowledge-based economy, and service jobs are not sufficient for supporting these people. Unless we rectify this situation, we will be faced with a great deal of social unrest and disruption. My hope is that drones can be used widely for delivery of goods. I think wearable electronics will be the norm, and the economy will be virtually cashless. I have hope that self-driving cars will be adopted to a degree as well, though I am sure that this will be a long tail adoption.”
A university professor based in Ohio wrote, No. “AI will increasingly be part of the everyday landscape.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The technologies will not lead to job creation, they only displace. More jobs will move away from tech and toward skilled labor or value added services that tech cannot replace.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “You will always need people to run the networks and repair the machines. Also to tell the machines what to do. It won’t be very different. Machines will get smaller, but think back to 12 years ago. We have better and smaller toys now, but there hasn’t been that significant a change.”
A retired Information science professional commented, Yes. “If one looks at history one can see the trends in how technology ‘advancements’ have affected the bulk of blue-collar—and even white-collar—jobs through time. The gap between the haves and have-nots is increasing and I believe, even though I love technology, that it will only get larger. I do think the use of robotic advances in medicine is fantastic and will help many people. But, although automated industry has allowed us to fine tune and (supposedly) made manufacturing more precise, the more people replaced by automation, the more unemployment will occur. AI and robotics will definitely be front and center in medicine and other sciences. Less human interaction as more of the ‘fast food’ industry human workers are replaced, perhaps altogether, by automation. For example, one is out and about and wants a coffee beverage at, let’s say, Starbucks. One pulls out one’s device (phone?), locates the nearest provider, places the order by checking off what size, flavor, extras, etc., pays and is given an electronic ‘receipt”. Upon arriving at the kiosk, one flashes the ‘receipt’ and the beverage appears, ready to go. The only person involved in the transaction is the person placing the order; everything else is done by machine.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “There is no doubt that there is more creation of jobs, but these jobs are just menial ones that do not need much skills and who pay minimum salaries. AI is taking over many jobs and making human beings work more in order to produce more. Anybody working within the system will work more than before. There will be less real communication among people. AI is creating a world of automatons (humans, in the developed world are becoming robots).”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “While not certain about whether AI requires as much maintenance and infrastructure in the development and repair of the advances, I imagine there will be displacement of jobs that require a minimum of mental dexterity. It will be to a small degree. It will take another decade or so beyond to have a strong influence. High tech manufacturing and medicine will utilize the technology most. On a personal level, it won’t affect the general public for a while beyond 2025.”
A published writer responded, Yes. “We are creating two, three, maybe four castes: (1) those who control the majority of financial resources/robotics (and have a huge interest in maintaining their caste) (the privileged/perhaps morally-bankrupt) 1%); (2) those who are creative forces in art, science, medicine, etc. and who the financial elite depend upon for additional innovation (the innovative/engaged 5%); (3) enthusiastic consumers (the bought-in 80% approx. distributed across a wide range of income brackets) and (4) the revolutionaries who decide to either drop out or take other action (the socially concerned 14%). As much as we’d like to envision some kind of utopia where AI and robotics benignly increase our wealth, health, and happiness, it is very likely that impacts of climate change will wreck havoc on humanity and result in such pressing life and death matters that AI and robotics will be more a diversion than a mainstream reality.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “The larger disruption will be in the blue-collar, manufacturing sector as robotic workforce has already gained footing. While there will be adoption in white-collar sectors these areas will continue to rely on human driven workforces. While traditional jobs may be replaced, there will be significant growth in the technology/computer science/programming sector to develop and program these robotic and AI platforms. The social consequences will be difficult to anticipate other than the potential gap in education and training to transition from a blue-collar manufacturing based workforce to a development and technology-based workforce. Adoption of AI and robotics will find footing in the daily lives of individuals as the Internet of Things adoption grows. Leveraging technology to complete daily tasks, manage services and improve life will be the core driver of adoption for these types of services.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “I expect that the disruptive trend will have reversed by about 2020 and if no major war interferes we will see major expansion in jobs for all kinds from minimum wage to scientific.”
An early leader of Internet conferencing in the 1990s replied, Yes. “Displacement of more jobs seems logical. As much as I would love to have a self-driving car, I think the trend here is to take autonomy away from skilled workers while turning them into the automatons.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “I don’t know that they will displace so much as change jobs in the white-collar sector, with potential for creating more jobs than they change. Blue-collar assembly line jobs are more likely to be displaced, with need for increased education for new market demands.”
An information science professional based in Denver, Colorado, replied, No. “I don’t know. I feel like it’s not AI or robotic advances that have displaced the customers I see looking for work. Rather it’s the job applications that are only available online, the need to have an email address, and the fact that people who are applying for blue-collar positions simply don’t have the skills to conduct a successful job search. For some reason I just don’t feel like the landscape will be that different, at least for the general population. Maybe in medicine or the military, but not day-to-day things so much.”
A higher education administrator commented, No. “You’re jumping the gun a little by looking only to 2025. This may eventually happen (but that’s envisioning a rather different world, and we’re not there, or on the verge of that, yet). Robots and AI (nanotechnology, etc., etc.) will gradually replace some jobs in certain sectors. It may not be all that gradual in some sectors: the need for humans to interact with dangerous chemicals, search buildings imminently exploding gas pipes, etc., these jobs will and should phase out quickly. Drones are on their way after all. The auto industry, food packing, one can think of a range of traditional assembly line work that will be replaced by robotic and other technologies. But this will somewhat be offset by the need for programmers, quality inspection, maintenance workers (for the robots, which will need looking after at least for the foreseeable future). SO in some industries it will look like robots have taken over the world but in others there will be little change. I don’t see robotic real estate agents in 2025. I suppose there will be more impact on blue color (particularly manufacturing) up front and some impact on white color jobs that are routine. As we’ve seen, it’s difficult to even substitute workers from other countries in customer service so a brigade of robots answering the phones for company probably isn’t on the horizon—not until the robots are much better, at least. We’ll use robotics/AI constantly and only be aware a fraction of the time when we’re doing so. We’re talking only 11 years from now people will still think something resembling an animal or human (in shape at least) when they think ‘robot.’ I would guess the automated arms in car plants don’t say ‘robot’ to many people, they’re just, well, automated arms with drill bits (or whatever). But robots (in the broader sense) will of course be at work everywhere. Suggesting things to us, simplifying things for us, saving us effort. We just won’t always know they’re there.”
A retired general manager of customer service for one of the major telecommunications companies wrote, Yes. “It is really kind of frightening. Fifty years ago, a substantial amount of manual labor was required to add value to products. That is no longer the case. We talk about jobs going to low-wage countries but they are also going to automation. China is a good example of this. They have low wages but they also have highly automated assembly processes.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “I try to keep up with most social issues, and I know first hand how many people have lost their jobs to technology. There are too few jobs, and more and more people with out work. The creation of service jobs, does not help the majority of people in the US. There need to be jobs where products are made and used in the country they are made in. There is no ‘I made this!’ pride left. Most people don’t even know what it means to have a manual labor job. The country has become a society of sitters and let something or someone else do the work. Those who do work, don’t get the wages they should for all their hard work. No wonder the suicide rate is increasing, along with all other forms of blue-collar, white-collar and individual crime. We will probably be overrun with AI and robotics by 2025, unless a major change is brought about. Some for the good, but mostly not. 1. job loss 2. poverty increase 3. rich will have all the toys, that make life easy and the poor will continue to struggle and not have the toys that could make life enjoyable and easier.”
A consultant wrote, No. “There will be a change in work and life styles, so that disruption may be a word that is questionable. In most countries, including those currently considered Third World, will lead to many changes. Example: even today, in this country, many are so reliant on calculators that they are lacking or limited in using anything else. Example: commercial pilots are becoming so reliant on autopilot that they lose/limited in manually landing a plane.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Advances in the next 10 years may definitely disrupt the job market (I have to admit to having a few I, Robot nightmares in that regard). The extent may depend upon how prepared we are now and how well trained people will be in the next five years.”
A self-employed writer and editor wrote, Yes. “We still haven’t dealt with job displacement from manufacturing moving to developing countries. If machines can ask us to super size, we’ll see growth in an underclass without work. To be honest, we’ll have much larger problems to deal with.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “First of all, your survey seems extraordinarily optimistic about the state of robotics. Perhaps this would be an issue in 2075, but I hardly think it will have made even a small dent in 5-10 years. I think you’ll see an increase in AI interfaces for software.”
An information science professional wrote, “Automated agents and transportation services have potential to displace a great number of jobs, but that the lack of a human intermediary will result in some historically cruel services rendered to people, whether in the form of a travel emergency that is not solved in due time or a robotic bus that runs people over or lacks the capacity to interfere between passengers as a human could. Robotics will aid in the piracy of personal and public resources, from drones keeping watch over neighborhoods to mobile hacking devices.”
A quality analyst who works for Google commented, No. “It will displace service categories (it has already replaced many warehouse workers) and some industrial jobs. However, it will create demand for new tech-related support industries. There will be substantial monitoring of children, businesses and residences in the name of safety and security. Personal health devices to monitor blood, respiratory and other conditions will be common. Education will b the least-changed but it too will be using tools that we can’t imagine today.”
An information science professional based in Virginia responded, No. “Someone has to program those devices and maintain them.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “Even the very best AI we currently have cannot do the remaining jobs that human beings do. Robots and AI work best in jobs that don’t require a lot of creativity, or can be solved with simple yes/no or mathematical answers. Anything outside the realm of computation that involves creative thinking or fuzzy logic, or good customer service skills, and the machines are useless. The average person won’t be able to afford robots or AI. The people who can afford them will eagerly call for their widespread use to ‘liberate’ the average person from labor, and the people who can’t will roll their eyes and go on their merry way. Believe it or not, human beings actually enjoy interacting with each other, and are not in a huge hurry to throw away interpersonal interactions.”
Don Hutchinson, a retired entrepreneur, observed, No. “Robots create increases in productivity, Driverless cars will be a boon for the aged who are reluctant to drive especially at night. Driverless cars will encourage mass transport by facilitating individual transportation at the beginning and end of the journey Clinical/medical diagnostics which have far lagged behind other branches of medicine e.g. diagnosis of lyme disease.”
A retired public librarian responded, Yes. “Amazon’s recent drone delivery announcement is a good example of changing job expectations due to robotics. I think we will see fewer low end jobs and a need for more advanced skill sets.”
An information science professional in Oregon replied, No. “Technological advances have always created more and different jobs than they displaced, and I don’t think the emergence of robotic advances will change that. However, we better start training our robot technicians, builders, maintenance and repair workers now, as they will be the new blue color workers in the future. The AI in our lives may begin to seem seamless. Most of us will not notice the clever way our devices can predict exactly what we want and what we need to do next and make it possible to do it. However, in 10 years this technology won’t be perfect, and while people will begin to feel entitled to it, they’ll also be frustrated when it doesn’t work, and they’ll be nostalgic for the old days when they could still surprise themselves with their own desires.”
A post-doctoral researcher in mechanical engineering commented, Yes. “Absolutely, you can see it now. The problem with robot AI displacing workers is that they can displace so much: doctors, lawyers, administrative professionals. These professions consist of so much of the workforce. The counter-argument by AI companies is that ‘jobs will be created’. First off, our society isn’t functioning at high enough level to adequately get these people trained to do jobs that would support AI: computer programming, maintenance, etc. My justification for this is that you don’t see that today: we have so many engineers working in military applications, but we suffer from the lack of teachers: you don’t see such a switch happening there. Attached to that point, is that maybe the lawyers have a passion for the law, but don’t want to be an AI maintenance person, that is going to lead to serious resistance in such an economy shift (or even to start: a college kid wants to be a lawyer and not work with AI). Second, by nature of such an economy, you displace for example, 20,000 secretaries, but you only need one maintenance person for 50 robot AI secretaries and with the population of working humans growing year after year in the world, let’s do the math here. I think we’ll see AI robots when we go to doctor’s offices, or in stores. I doubt we’ll see them in the home, except for the homes of the super-wealthy. Perhaps ‘No AI’ zones will spring up where people can go to see and interact with other people without AI? Perhaps an economy of purely humans will develop where people refuse to patronize businesses that use AI to supplant workers? But my guess is that won’t happen. There is a small economy that wants to support ‘Made in the USA,’ but a majority of shoppers still go to Walmart.”
The CEO of a technology company replied, No. “I expect a significant shift in jobs skills required and disruption to occur. However, I also think that we will see a significant increase in high, mid-, and low skill jobs in these new technological advancements in 2025. I think our education system will need to be upgraded in the coming years prior to 2025 to prepare future generations for an increase in AI skill sets within the labor force. If this occurs a social consequence may include an increase in communicating through tech and less physical interaction. Another consequence may be large segments of our population unable to learn new skills late in their careers and needing to return to school to qualify for future jobs. AI and robotics will become essential to the ordinary landscape of the general population by 2025. Our transportation, housing, healthcare, entertainment, food service, education, and communications will change the most as these tools advance. I do not think much will remain relatively unchanged by our tech advancements.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “They will create different jobs, just like current computers didn’t really reduce the need for works, just changed the skills they need.”
An information science professional based in Oklahoma, commented, No. “Instead of replacing jobs they will just necessitate a continued shift in the types of jobs needed. Technology relies upon people who understand how to create it, operate it, and maintain it. Unfortunately, the types of jobs created means a high level of education is required, which will continue to widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots. There will be few jobs for uneducated people. I suspect that all aspects of our lives will be changed. The technological changes that have taken place in the last 10 years are staggering and I don’t think it will slow down.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “There will be a shift, but I don’t think it will be profound. For a particular person it could be profound, but for society I believe a balance will be struck. In addition, there have been predictions over and over on the mechanized utopia. I don’t think it will be as profound, disruptive, or beneficial as predicted, even though there will be a measure of depth to the innovation, disruption, and benefit. Kind of like the information revolution, it will take a course largely unpredicted, but will pose problems and questions which will need hashing out before the improvement is incorporated into our lives and made to comport with who we are as human. I also subscribe to Moore’s Law, so we are entering into a plateau and integration phase in technological innovation. I do not believe it will be very ordinary. Perhaps the most common aspect affected will be health care. The least affected will be ordinary life: cooking, cleaning, driving, etc. Maybe a few flourishes, but nothing groundbreaking.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Robotic advances and AI are going to have even more significant impacts than those we are anticipating. I am a librarian and we recently installed an automatic materials handler to check-in and sort books and audio-visual materials. We expected this to lighten our workload but the AMH had a larger effect that we planned, it is doing 50% of the tasks of a number of employees. We are scrambling to keep them productively occupied, and this is just one very tiny instance of job disruption. The social consequences will be similar to those of the industrial revolution—those caught in the transition without the skills to thrive will be effectively phased out and faced with the prospect of living a difficult life. Education will prepare the next generation to benefit from the technological advances. I can envision AI and robotics being an integral part of the ordinary landscape on levels small and large.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “I don’t think people are ready to embrace robotics and AI in every day life on a large scale.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I don’t see these technologies as part of the ‘ordinary landscape’ in only 14 years, but they may be used more in particular contexts, such as tasks that are difficult, dangerous, or repetitive (e.g. manufacturing).”
An information science professional based in California, replied, No. “The technology is still too new and won’t have advanced to that stage just yet. Perhaps by 2050. I see social consequences as being enormous: people who have been displaced from their livelihoods will resent the creators of AI and the companies that brought them into widespread use. I see protests along the lines of Occupy Wall Street, where unemployed and scared people riot against national corporations. Politicians will get in on it and talk about protecting the rights of the human workers and a bunch of useless and expensive policies will be created. AI and robotics will still be mostly behind the scenes in 2025, for instance, restocking grocery store shelves at night once the store is closed, but humans will still be working the cash registers (at least for a little while still). For the most part, unless we lose our jobs because of the AI, it won’t really affect us yet.”
A self-employed information consultant/developer, responded, Yes. “Someone recently commented that the robotic, repetitive actions reportedly expected of warehouse workers for companies like Amazon.com are a clear indication that such jobs can and will be replaced by actual robots. More jobs will move into the service sector, and job-sharing, part-time and freelance work will become more common (in the US and other large economies). If large-scale unemployment results, there could be social unrest, but I don’t see that being part of the picture unless there are other factors such as another large downturn in the world’s economy. AI and robotics will become more commonly available, affordable and accepted, and will effect almost all areas of life in the developed world. Cleaning robots like Roomba will move into other areas of drudgery that are inconvenient, like window-washing, and ironing and folding clothes. The areas that will be slowest to change are those that involve personal interactions—the ‘uncanny valley’ effect will mean that any type of assistance requiring relationships built on trust, such as elder care, will not move easily into AI/robotic hands.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “There will always be some tasks left for people to do. The challenge will be to create a just meritocracy with a chance for everyone to earn an adequate living income. Fewer human drivers on the road will lead to fewer accidents.”
A retiree responded, Yes. “The nature of jobs is constantly changing—if we can free people from repetitious, monotonous tasks and allow them to utilize more creative facets of their personhood, the world will move forward in an improved manner the mechanisms which can be most readily adapted for individual use at a reasonable cost will become ubiquitous, while the more complicated and costly items will move forward more slowly…even now, the idea of a car parking itself is a novel, but readily accepted mode of change.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “Most jobs will still require human involvement. People will always be present, if not actually doing a certain task. And as technology and arts develop, there will always be new jobs for people to do. Repetitive actions and drudge jobs will be replaced more and more by robotics. Creativity and management will remain relatively unchanged.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “We are already dealing with automated phones and the like. Older people will not like it and younger people will adapt easier. Jobs will always be scarce but there will be plenty of work flipping burgers and washing dishes. I believe automated delivery systems will be the norm by 2025.”
A librarian for the US Department of Education replied, No. “There may be more automated systems, however, humans still need to run and fix the automated systems which takes a lot of manpower and know how. The only concern I have about the I-robot industry is that we have enough engineers to build and maintain the infrastructure. I have no idea. I know that AI and robotics have already changed our landscape. The possibilities are endless and amazing.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Robotic advances will displace more of the jobs that require routine activities, but the demand for personal expertise will increase in ways that will balance out some of the job losses. Robotics and AI tools will especially be part of the daily lives of the elderly in order to help improve the quality of daily life of the aging population.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “With more jobs becoming automated less workers are needed. It will create more highly-skilled jobs, but that will place the working class out of jobs.”
A professor teaching in a university graduate program commented, Yes. “The robotic devices I know about would continue to displace many blue-collar jobs.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Robotic devices and AI will displace the jobs at the lower socioeconomic rungs and the government will be unwilling to fund training and education for those displaced.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “We have already seen job displacement in manufacturing due to robotics. As the robotics and AI technology continues to advance, fewer and fewer jobs require minimal skills will be available. We see this already with Amazon’s move to use drones to delivery packages. The incorporation of this technology into delivery services will mean the loss of tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs to delivery drivers and related positions. Workers with high levels of education and high skills will continue to create new jobs for themselves but those with limited education and skills will find it harder and harder to secure work due to the use of robots, AI, and other technology that can do more work for less cost.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “I’m not sure about the economic impact of robotic advances and AI overall but I think that workers will still be needed to maintain and repair these technologies. Whether the number of workers for maintenance will be greater than the number of workers needed to perform these tasks now is something I cannot assess. However, I do think that while the number of workers in the developed economies may be fewer due to robotics and AI, there will still be a need for these services in the underdeveloped and developing countries.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “These tools will not be perfected to the point where there still won’t be a need for a human to supervise and intervene in case of an emergency. Communication will be the area affected the most. Our current ability to communicate across the world so easily and cheaply is a huge step. I see these things continuing to get easier to do. I don’t see people putting their life into the hands of digital agents and robots as easily. Will people get cars with more and more safety features that are robotic, yes. Will people sit in the passenger seat with the car driving itself and not pay attention or keep the option of over-riding the car if there is a problem, no.”
A business professional responded, Yes. “At least 25% of health care and record-management tasks will be done by AI instead of white and blue-collar workers. More robotics will be employed in the home and on the road. The work landscape will change the most.”
The executive director of a non-profit community service organization commented, No. “Robots seem to have many, many limitations and whether self-driving cars will be used by responsible citizens remains to be seen. I am concerned that drug use will inhibit networked and artificial intelligence. Select industries who think outside the box may be influenced.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “New technologies will create more jobs.”
A database configuration specialist and risk assessment analyst responded, No. “Certain aspects of AI are still way far away—the ability to read a handwritten record from 1530 in English secretary hand; and contains Latin, English and personal abbreviations—a skilled human can do it instantly; not yet for AI. Employees will still be needed for design/R&D; hands-on personal interaction (table staff); personal care which requires artistic interpretation (beauty); acting; and most forms of creative expression. The labor force will need to split into manual labor and creative labor. There may well be a rebellion against the current trend of self-service for everything (benefits, checkout, etc.) and this is where AI could serve the most purpose.”
A self-employed professional responded, No. “The same was said about computers. Robots will start doing more of the jobs we can’t or don’t want to do. AI will make existing jobs easier and create new opportunities. I think all of this will be accepted and desired by the public just as cell phones and computers have been. I think that robotics will completely change manufacturing, improve working conditions for human operators, and ultimately decrease prices. This should eliminate the controversy about underpaid developing world sweat shops and bring more jobs back to the US while also creating more opportunities in developing countries that embrace the technology. If the US can improve educational standards, then we should see an improving economy and high standard of living as long as we also exploit space resources. I don’t see self-driving cars filling the roads by 2025. Maybe by 2040. Most aspects of the average American’s life will be unchanged by robotics or AI but there will be many ‘behind the scenes’ changes that make things easier and more efficient with some typical hiccups.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “I figure that robots and AI are advancing so rapidly that those creating these advances will do well, while the AI will just take places of the blue-collar jobs. why couldn’t robots do a fast food worker’s job? gas station attendant? grocery clerk? banker? just as well, or better than a blue-collar worker? no worries about hair in food, rude customer service, etc.”
The webmaster of a history site replied, No. “There will always been the need for technicians to troubleshoot, manage and repair these applications and devices We’ll be able to access/manage more and more of the processes in our homes remotely—ovens, lights, heating etc.”
An information science professional wrote, No. “I don’t believe there will be a radical change in job due to these changes. They will be part of our lives such as Siri is or other agents that give us suggestions. This will not be a change in industry. Tech and service will be still be a major component of the economy with manufacturing dwindling. I think they will be a small part of our lives. We won’t be The Jetsons with lots of AI help just certain niches such as car driving or monitoring our health. No robotic maids or instant dinners appearing from our appliances.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “Robots and AI tools will have been proven conclusively by 2025 to be better and more reliable than human employees. As a result, there will be jobs in the service sectors of the economy, but very few in manufacturing. (Jan) Robotics and AI will be familiar to everyone in their daily lives by 2025. The home life will be made even simpler by robotic devices that will be able to cook, clean up, etc., but what will remain relatively unchanged is that people will continue to spend hours on end each and every day watching their screens (TV, streaming internet, whatever they call entertainment in 2025).”
An information science professional wrote, No. “Society will still value the personal interaction with public facing jobs. I hope to see self driving cars to improve highway efficiency and reduce the number of accidents on the road, especially during commute hours!”
An information science professional based in Berkeley, California, wrote, No. “I believe that the number of jobs there are is going to vary minimally within socially accepted norms of unemployment and that the impact of robotic and AI advances will be not on the quantity of jobs but the kinds of jobs available. Or put differently, I believe that (in the US especially) the job market shifts not with technology, but with politics. The telephone did not change how many jobs there are, but what kinds of jobs people do. Ditto with computers. It is entirely possible that these new kinds of technology will drive a wedge between the levels of jobs that are available such that there will be more highly skilled jobs for highly educated folks and more low-skilled/low pay jobs with a wide gap between them. I can envision a world with a far more stratified economic model and a miniscule middle class. AI and robotics will be parts of almost all parts of our lives within 12 years. I do not believe that will be sufficient time to change the ways we think, worship, and emote. But I do think the way we parent, teach, learn, engage in commerce, hold people accountable (through legal systems), and most every outward act will be affected.”
An information science professional responded, No. “I don’t think we are far enough along with AI for jobs to be displaced—2025 may be when we start to see jobs shifting due to AI. I am somewhat skeptical of the reach of AI in society, even in the next decade. We will see penetration in urban areas and population centers, where the implementation will be easier and the infrastructure to support AI will be easier to implement. In less developed or rural areas, I don’t see widespread implementation happening that quickly.”
An information science professional responded, No. “AIs will not displace more jobs than they create. I don’t feel AI is an all or nothing equation. There are things a robot just cannot do. Human interaction is important and valued. I don’t see the user really taking to all types of AI. I think AI will be increased, but we won’t be living in a sci-fi future. Will things be different, and will some things be easier due to AI, yes. But human interaction will remain.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. “Manual-labor jobs (McDonald’s, Walmart) will disappear and the robot repair industry will boom. Shopping will change most. Affairs of the heart will stay the same.”
The manager of a non-profit hospital commented, Yes. “While it is sad the reality us that if robots can do a job accurately and cost effectively the impact will be larger than we would expect.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “I see a change is skill sets by 2025. Workers will need to have more skills.”
A corporate educator working in an investor-owned utility replied, Yes. “They are already displacing jobs, part of the challenge of the Great Recession. The ability to work intelligently in that culture requires brains and education, and there’s an entire group of people who will struggle with that. Honestly I am glad I will be old by then, it’s going to be harder and harder to get a good job. Think 10 years back: who predicted smart phone revolution? I don’t know how it will change, but it will affect the way people interact with each other. Already we are affected by media, texting, instant info—no one has an attention span.”
An assistant professor of library and information science at the University of Missouri replied, Yes. “I hope robots can take over things that humans do for themselves that aren’t jobs. Humans still generally do things much better than robots. I hope humans continue to create handmade items. Maybe they will have more time to do so—cook good foods (slow food movement), create art, etc.—maybe if people are freed from tedious tasks they will have more time for more interesting pursuits. That is good only if robotic tools are a) inexpensive and b) do not wreck the environment. Lots of cyberwaste is bad.”
An information science professional in Alaska replied, No. “Robots break and there will still need to be reliable humans to fix them! There will be a balance between robotic/digital agents and human interaction and the public will be presented with a choice of which they’d like to deal with best. AI will grow but it will level out and be more ‘under the radar’ (as in automated telephone calls now) than in everyday, up-front experiences. Things like food service, instant check out and perhaps banking, may be streamlined in this way, anything to make people wait in line less.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Smart technology will begat more smart technology. Smart phones alone have probably displaced more jobs than they created, if one could truly gauge the impact of apps and on-demand information.”
An information science professional in rural eastern Washington State said, No. “Disruption may be beginning in 2025, but will be have a longer implementation scale. It will be mostly industrial, but I sure hope the household vacuum/mopper is perfected!”
An information science professional specializing in business and health sciences commented, No. “It is hard to imagine that we will allow our economy and jobs to wither away to the point that human beings are ‘disposable.’ There is a huge shift to STEM jobs and we need significant inputs in education to provide training for these new and emerging careers. This is so hard to predict! It is hard to imagine life without Twitter or tablets, yet these did not really exist a decade ago.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “It is always going to take people to perform quality control on such things, at the very least.”
A former executive at major technology company, now a social entrepreneur, responded, No. “As with all technological change in the past, old jobs will disappear, but new work tasks will replace those old jobs. There is still so much for the economy and society to do that the work seems almost endless.”
A gaming, technology, and youth services consultant wrote, Yes. “I expect more self-service kiosks for everything, everywhere. I love the idea of self-service libraries, where you can pick up your items on hold, surf the web, print/make copies and browse at midnight, logged with a library card and followed by surveillance cameras, of course. Social consequences could mean that humans are even more terrible to one another, as face-to-face interactions become less. I mean, sometimes the act of navigating through an automated phone menu sends someone off the deep end and they take it out on the real person on the line, when finally encountered. I hope AI will free up MY personal time. What happened to the fridge being able to tell I’m low on milk and ordering it for delivery in my online grocery order? I want to live in that future. Retail has the most potential for change, and maybe, some types of sanitation. I mean, why doesn’t every hotel has a Roomba and self-cleaning shower? I don’t see the amazon drone thing taking off.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. “The technology is created by just a few people where as people who drive taxis, cars, pilot planes, and conduct trains is a larger percentage of the population. The biggest change will be insurance needs and the ability for senior citizens to be mobile.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Programmers are fairly safe. AI makes human programmers ‘bionic’ but I haven’t seen specs ever written that can let a program generate the program. Some white-collar knowledge jobs may go away (travel agents are virtually gone. Librarians are endangered. The economic value of writers is underappreciated, and there will be less than I desire, but it’s already the case. Magazines and newspapers will be much more scarce by 2025.) I expect cars will have automation, but not to the degree that Google cars are. The car sensors will be smaller, cheaper, more safety-oriented, and probably networked, so that more cars act in tandem. An example might be that if a car ahead suddenly slows down, cruise control will be dropped for cars behind them, and nearby cars may also slow down.) I do think that the degree that Google puts ‘the right information’ in front of you will increase (though the right info might be more ads than I want).”
An information science professional responded, No. “While technology has eliminated or changed some parts of the public sector, more systems and more automation have created different kinds of needs. While we may not need taxi drivers, we probably will need more capable mechanics who can provide in-the-field maintenance for automated taxi systems, etc. Transportation is the next avenue to be taken over by robots. Whether there will still be an ‘in case’ human like we have in air and sea travel remains to be seen. I would hope to see more AI capacity in areas like running the home (controlling lights, temperature, etc.), but this seems to have been very slow to develop. The other area where there seems to be some great capacity is in medicine. I could see the beginning of machines that can make sensory decisions on their own rather than being guided by a human hand. I believe continued patent trolling and poor copyright reform will keep the information economy chasing it’s tail in the same way it currently does and Fear mongering from religious conservative groups endangers some potential technological advances along with realistic fears that our governments and those in power (i.e., the wealthy elite) will be using technology in secret to oppress people will also curtail potential developments.”
An information science professional responded, No. “It will create more specialized jobs for people who will create and maintain these agents. It will impact medicine since it is already present in that field. Home appliances have the potential to change ordinary tasks and landscape.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. “I hope they will not be part of the ordinary landscape, because such a world would be horrible to me. But my hope is tinged with despair, because technologies have been developing so rapidly in the past 30 years without anything to slow their deployment except the vagaries of the marketplace. If somebody can make money from it, it is unlikely to be hindered or stopped. The negative impacts of technologies is seldom recognized and almost never acted upon until it is too late.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “The ongoing quest for business efficiency has derailed the use of human workers and the notion that humans can be effective workers. Why be in the service industry and speak to a machine? That is not good business. Machine efficiency has on the one hand has built better computing systems, etc., but I do think humans can never be that smart over machines (there is a point of sci-fi). Humans are poor architects of engineering in some regards.”
A 75-year-old retiree and volunteer, formerly a business professional, commented, No. “The advent of cars displaced horses and manufacture of related equipment but resulted in the auto industry employing many more people. I think AI is further out than robotics. Robotics will most likely first be expanded in manufacturing but they will invade the service industries next. Certainly more voice-activated programs, more voice and touch screen interactive programs for education and communication. Transportation will see the most change, definitely.”
An information science professional in Kentucky replied, No. “The creation of a ‘digital assembly line’ is neither unfeasible nor unrealistic, however, the ratio of displacement of (‘physical’ for the lack of a better descriptor) jobs will require more time than just 2025. More and more automated data will be loaded across industries whether they are healthcare, social services, those offered by the State (i.e. government, not a particular state in the United States context).”
The project coordinator for an environmental consulting firm commented, No. “The degree that robotics and digital agents would have to advance to replace more jobs than created is not economically feasible in 10 years. While small orders from Amazon may be packed and delivered via drone things in the service industry: stocking grocery stores, baking, creative services, and making coffee are more efficiently done by human touch.”
A retired Information science professional wrote, No. “Nature of jobs will change, some jobs will become obsolete but the new technology will create another layer of jobs.”
A volunteer and artist commented, Yes. “It is sad that more and more jobs are being lost to robotics. I see more and more homeless—crimes going up…death. I see just a few being able to afford comps in their homes—or smart phones. Only a few children getting education; we are already dumbing them down. I treasure humanity and I see it being placed to the side of the road for ‘tourism’—entertainment. Houses cars, phones that talk to you—scary. Robotic ‘friends”—wow. I worry for my grandson. The part of life that is already changing is that small groups will do as they please, they can afford the gadgets, they already feel they know what is best for the ‘whole.” The least effected, the rich, will just get richer.”
An information science professional responded, Yes. “What we see already—factory jobs disappearing and even service workers being replaced by robots and AI—will continue to increase at a dramatic pace. I feel that in 2025, many ‘pink-collar’ jobs, such as nursing, will be highly impacted. Most change: at home, there will be more and more reliance on the cloud and less ‘stuff’ collected (such as we see already with physical books, music and movies), as well as increasing numbers of household chores taken care of by robot. At work, there will be fewer jobs—even in the service sector—with any rote component and therefore more unemployment. The truth is that, no matter how you seek to educate everyone, there are always going to be people with less intellectual capability, who don’t like school, who can’t sit still to read, who have learning disabilities and so on. Their place in the workplace will further diminish.”
An information science professional responded, No. “They are useful tools, and will probably replace manufacturing jobs, just as machines have been doing for the last so many years. But in the operating room, someone will need to control the robot. And the AI air traffic controllers will need human backup. Jobs will change. AI and robotics will be an ordinary part of life for the affluent by 2025. Smart homes will be the norm for those with the resources to install the necessary domestic infrastructure.”
A freelance marketing and communications professional, replied, No. “This theory that robots and technology in general will displace jobs is old and ill-informed. Who is going to program, design, manufacture, market and manage these technologies? The world will adapt. 2025 is only 11 years away. When I think back 11 years ago not that much has changed. Almost everyone has a smart phone, tablet, etc. but in the end we are all just people. People will adapt.”
An information science professional responded, No. “I don’t have anything super-amazing to say about this— it’s just what I think. For all the negative people out there who can only see what is bad, I tend to see the positive, and I think we need jobs that are not low-end or easily outsourced. I think this could be one answer to that need.”
An associate professor at Bergen Community College wrote, No. “There will need to be much re-training for people in blue-collar jobs to help them re-create their work or define new work, while learning to work with and around robots and digital agents. There will have to be a willingness to learn and re-train by those whose jobs are at risk. AI and robots are all ready part of the general landscape. People expect automated telephone calls, robotic surgery and medical procedures. The human element will still be required in the raising of children, in healthcare situations and in art.”
A member of the clergy with an interest in the political and social implications of technology responded, Yes. “Many low-skill or medium-skill jobs will be at least partially disrupted—supply chain logistics, research, clerical and administrative, warehouse/industrial, etc. I would like the productivity benefits to be channeled into social safety net, retraining, and job creation rather simply into lower prices for consumers who may no longer be employed, but I worry that Republican and libertarian politics will cause further erosion of social capital and physical infrastructure.”
Virginia Bird, director of the New River Public Library Cooperative, wrote, No. AI and robots need someone to take care of them—for maintenance, programming. Even a maintenance robot needs maintenance. People do this, people take care of the details.”
An information science professional commented, No. “They will require different types of jobs with different skills than today.”
An information science professional commented, No. “These will probably be mostly used by people who would otherwise do things for themselves. Those who are already using humans as personal assistants will probably continue to do so. Unless they are very inexpensive, AI will only be a toy for the wealthy and upper middle class.”
An information science professional commented, “Yes and no. These devices may eliminate many basic jobs, but other jobs will need to be created to manage the devices.”
An information science professional commented, No. “In 11 more years I don’t think we’ll be there quite yet. Do I underestimate the technology? Perhaps. I guess I can’t begin to imagine it. Look at drones. Amazon is saying it may have all it’s delivery by drones in the future. I still think a human would be needed to supply the drones and to program the drones. I can envision all sorts of errors.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Humans are adaptable which is why they are still around. we will work with AI but still remain the leadership in its innovation. Not that there won’t be conflict. They will affect shopping, manufacturing, teaching, and other skills that can be automated. But people who can program will be more and more necessary.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Much of our large-scale manufacturing is already automated and it will continue to increase in the future. There will more unemployment and competition and people will look more to careers in technology. It will happen in the public sector (schools, manufacturing, hospitals, etc.,) but people’s private lives will be largely untouched by robotics.”
A health sciences librarian at the University of the Pacific wrote, Yes. “Once AI becomes common place, there will be no need for people to even repair machines. Machines don’t need rest, they don’t need health care and they need to be respected by the people they serve. Looking back history, it is an obvious pattern that while machines do create jobs, such as people who used to build cars are now doing jobs like retail—or they are in jail working for pennies on the dollar. I think that Health Care will see a huge increase in the number of robots. They won’t abuse the elderly they will replace all the people needed to run an old folks home and they won’t mind the abuse that people with mental problems will heap on them. And there will be all kinds of AI and robotics within the body. Nano based repair, treatment, pharmaceuticals, AI monitoring of everything from food consumption to proper placement of stints.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “AI has the potential for job creation, but the majority of any new jobs will probably not be in the United States, where AI may then result in job reductions. AI may be apparent and not considered unusual by 2025, but our current infrastructures will not support full-flown change to an AI-heavy environment by 2025.”
An information science professional commented, No. “Although many jobs have been displaced by AI technology and robots, there has also been a lot of pushback against robocalls and automated help menus. Plus there will be a need for people to create and troubleshoot the AI that exists. I see AI as enhancing certain jobs when guided by humans, but I can’t see going to a robotic surgeon without knowing someone is controlling it, for instance, or relying on a robot to pull someone out of a fire. I work in a service profession, and although our jobs have changed a lot due to computers, there is still a need for people to be part of the service equation. Often people’s requests are illogical, and it takes some sleuthing to determine what they really want.”
An information science professional commented, No. “Many jobs will be displaced, hopefu;;y new jobs with different needs will be created. Routine tasks will be changed. Intellectual pursuits will not change; especially in the arts.”
The digital editor for a very large media organization responded, Yes. “AI and robots are becoming more sophisticated and can do many tasks without humans behind the wheels, so of course there will be less need for humans to be part of the process. Automated tasks have been around for a long time—vending machines, for example. Food packaging. Manufacturing. Automated garbage pickup. This sort of thing is becoming more commonly accepted, so should be taking over more aspects of our lives as innovation progresses. Medical technology and advances will be affected significantly. Surgery will probably see huge advances, as will diagnoses of some ailments.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “We’ll see wider gaps between blue-collar and white-collar jobs. The jobs will be either very low level (fast food, retail, agricultural work) or professional/college degree work. It is hard to imagine how big a part they’ll be by then. Couldn’t have imagined technology today that is common back in 2003.”
A media agency strategist replied, Yes. “As per Moore’s Law the cost of production will continue to come down as the capability increases which will mean that AI / robotics can be applied to more and more jobs thereby making human production comparatively more expensive about the only thing left unchanged will be direct person-to-person interaction, also known as sex.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “It will take longer than 2025 to create robots that can do what humans can do. Robotics will only be available for the rich, and not for everyday people.”
An information science professional based in Delaware wrote, No. “There will be disruption, but only in certain sectors of the economy. I don’t think customer-service-oriented sectors will see as much of an impact, as opposed to automated businesses.”
A self-employed interactive communications specialist for a news organization commented, Yes. “In 11 years there will be much displacement for the older generation who has not yet reached retirement but are too old (or possibly stubborn or not informed of opportunities) to be retrained for something new. However, the younger generations will not need the white/blue-collar jobs that have gone to robots, etc.”
The chief operating officer at a large public library system replied, No. “With the proliferation of intelligent vehicles, robotics, etc. other jobs must evolve to fill in the created gaps. The USA had to deal with a decline in the industrial model (in particular the railroad and steel mill industry) and emerge with a different work and employment model. This is not always easy, and the evolution can be slow and painful. What emerged from these ashes became the electronic and then the computer age. By 2025, these models will be as common-place as smart phones are today. Life will go on, in many ways unchanged because man cannot survive without the personal relationships of friends and family. On the other hand, the ‘distancing’ created by smart-technology will probably become more integrated into lifestyles. Man may have to evolve a little to deal with this aspect and emerge different on the other side.”
A student at the University of Washington wrote, Yes. “They will probably disrupt the workforce no more than the first introduction of robotics in the 1960’s. Jobs will be lost but it won’t upturn the social order. Probably ways that no one ever expected.”
A director of university communications at a major university in Colorado responded, No. “The overall status of the economic internationally, regionally and locally always will be a greater force. More advances in things ‘manual or mechanical’ that are immediately embraced by younger populations, less so by populations over age 40 at the time(s) of the introductions/availability of such tools.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “It will be hard to imagine the new jobs that will be created in the future. It doesn’t make sense that robots or any other AI creation will take over and displace workers to any great degree as who will be able to be the consumer if there is no way to earn the capitol to pay for the innovative products? That said I am an optimist and hope that the innovation will make many blue-collar jobs safer and do the heavy lifting that is needed.”
A social media communications professional replied, No. “Gut instinct tells me that the jobs will be transferred on to other sectors. But for that to happen I am assuming improved access to education and the dream that people would have to work less.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Absolutely you are right! I can’t imagine how advanced the development of robotic technology will become in even just five years down the road! Robotic technology has replaced work done by human in the assembly lines or even in the medical world. The knowledge-based economy will remain the same while industrial/medical based economy will be replaced by technology.”
A professional writer said, No. “While I expect robotics and AI to develop very significantly within the target period, I can’t begin to determine whether they will produce more or fewer jobs. Either eventuality is seems plausible. Self-driving cars and other robotic devices are quite likely to become common for everything from transportation to home cleaning, shopping, product delivery, remote data acquisition. People will become increasingly accustomed to interacting with non-human intelligences.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “These tools will certainly push changes in these types of jobs and those who are unable or unwilling to change will likely be displaced. On the other hand, new jobs will be created and many current jobs will evolve. I am a librarian so this is something I have experienced firsthand. Although I am new to the field after a career change, I have seen a tremendous passion and excitement for pushing changes for the profession. I’m sure other white-collar fields will see a similar movement. Blue-collar fields will also continue to change training as they have as technology has changed since the industrial revolution.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “I’m guessing that they’ll displace more jobs than they’ll create, mainly because I can’t think of many jobs that they could create other than robot maintenance and software design. How many jobs were created by the widespread adoption of automatic teller machines, after all? How we deal with the resulting unemployed is going to challenge some of our deeper values. Since probably at least the Industrial Revolution, there’s been a promise that technology will make life easier for us, that we won’t have to work so hard, that machines will do all the boring, hard, and/or dangerous stuff, leaving us free to pursue lives of leisure. At the same time, at least in the US, we’ve got a Puritan work ethic that says that you only deserve the income you’ve earned with your own hard work. Giving people money simply because they’re alive and need to stay that way is viewed as socialism, communism, letting people freeload, saying it’s all right to be lazy, etc. And many (most?) people want to be doing something they see as productive and valued by others. I have absolutely no idea how this could be resolved, but I imagine the conflict will get nastier and dirtier as more people lose their jobs to technology.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Robots are the next big thing. We are going to need a lot fewer people in the world. In 11 years? Robots probably won’t have taken over the world just yet. But jobs will definitely be lost. For instance, fast food restaurant jobs could be completely handled by robots.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “White-collar jobs will include medical doctors, lawyers, and engineers. Teachers will be less important due to distance learning. We will have a more stratified society—rich, small middle class, and an disproportionate lower/poverty levels.”
An information science professional in Michigan replied, No. “Many of the jobs that can be automated already have been and people need to remain smarter than machines so you need people to build, program and repair the robots and AI. I look forward to the self driving car so much—not that I’ll be able to afford one but I love to dream about not driving!”
A information science professional in Virginia commented, No. “We have become very protective of our job security. The human touch and ‘customer service’ has made a new resurgence as technology has advanced and while some work areas lend themselves very well to automation there seems to be more and more who want the ‘human’ or people factor to play a role that will not go away. I hear it more in a customer service respect, automated service gets old really fast when a person can relate and provide compassion/emotion as the situation allows.”
A human factors professional and educator and member of ACM SIGCHI, responded, Yes. “While I am pro-AI and robotic advances because they will increase physical health and safety overall, it is my belief that many blue-collar jobs have been lost and, increasingly, many white-collar jobs will be lost to automation and to advances in data analysis and smart technology. I think that we will need to find new ways for people to find meaningful work and to provide both educational and occupational support for that future. We already see the introduction of AI and control systems into consumer products—automobiles, smart technology in appliances. I believe that this trend will broaden and become available to more than the technological elite as we move forward.”
An information science professional based in Ohio wrote, Yes. “The manufacturing industry/blue-collar industries will continue to be the most impacted. Living-wage jobs will continue to become less available to those without an education. The separation between the digital haves and have-nots will continue to grow. Any technology which makes life ‘easier’ or more entertaining will continue to be a factor. People are already all but physically attached to phones other gadgets/devices. Can implants be far behind? I think the entertainment industry/social media will continue to grow/change rapidly.”
A law school professor teaching in the areas of research and analysis replied, Yes. “After the initial costs of development and deployment, robots become much less expensive than humans. The problem will arise that there isn’t enough income to purchase the products that robots will churn out. Then, there will be a relatively untrained workforce attempting to make refined products. Everything will change. Control of the monetary resources will be limited to a great extent to those who control the robots. Everyone else will try, most unsuccessfully, to cope with the changes. Unless chips are implanted in brains and food is created from dirty air, society will stagnate and we won’t know enough to care.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “New jobs will be created as new services are developed.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “I expect much of the manual and routine work will be done by robots or AI in the future. However, I don’t expect that to create huge social consequences. The job market will change and there will be other tasks for humans to do.”
An information science professional based in Florida responded, No. “Humanity will rule. People will still need jobs. Robotics will streamline technology, but not replace humans. Just like ebooks accompany print books in libraries—they don’t replace them.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “It will create different jobs. Someone has to write the programs, repair the devices, maintain and develop networks that will function in the new environment. I live in the Midwest and I don’t see these technologies becoming a reality here for a long time.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “This is already happening and the social consequences include the loss of jobs for white-collar workers. Unless blue-collar workers are given more skills and the country develops more of a manufacturing economy the primary employers will be McDonalds and Burger King.”
A digital content advisor at OverDrive Inc. wrote, Yes. “There will be new jobs created in AI and robotics by 2025, but not nearly as many as will be displaced by robots that will be able to fill fast food orders, even possibly drive taxis, and replace humans in factories.”
A vice president at an arboretum commented, No. “The technological explosion in the last 30 years has produced many opportunities for the next generation of knowledge workers to find work.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Jobs will change. New jobs we haven’t even conceived of will emerge.”
A media distribution professional based in New Jersey replied, No. “It will end up requiring a more educated workforce and will take away from blue-collar jobs widening the socioeconomic gap. The middleclass will become smaller. Time is becoming a most precious commodity so the devices which seem to give individuals more control of their daily routine will be embraced by the public.”
An attorney and partner in private law firm replied, Yes. “There will be a further weakening of manufacturing/product jobs and it will extend into the service sector. The social consequences are a greater divide between the haves and the have-nots, both in America and globally.”
An information science professional wrote, Yes. “As with many advances: low skilled or low bar of entry jobs will disappear, and be replaced by far smaller number of high-paying, high-skilled jobs requiring specialized education. The entry into the middle class will therefore be an even steeper, less likely climb than it is now. It is possible that self-driving cars will be widespread, but I don’t think they will be pervasive.”
A media distribution professional responded, Yes. “There are many jobs that can be done by a robot if supervised by a human. There are many human drones in the workforce now that prove this. We would just switch the human drones for the robots and keep the supervisors human leaving the human drones without a job. I imagine one quarter of the population will have Al doing for them. The mundane trial errands will be done by robots; library, drug store, post office, walk the dog, etc.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Technology will still depend on programmers, designers, builders and people to maintain the hardware and software, so it may displace some jobs but others will be created.”
An information science professional commented, Yes. “There will be mixed results; more blue-collar jobs disrupted but possibility for more white-collar jobs requiring different skills from workers.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “We have already since this in industry—industrial plants may come back from foreign soils, but rather than restoring all the jobs that were sent overseas, automation often shrinks the amount of workers and requires more technically savvy employees. There will be more, but I am wondering how much. If the automation can actually replace a person including the ability to react to unanticipated situations, then the automation will be quite prevalent. An example of not quite there, is in the use of airplane pilots—if we push for automatic pilot, are we losing the ability to have the plane’s guidance system react appropriately to the unpredictable weather occurrences. May seem extreme but already we have accidents caused by the human pilot relying on the auto-pilot and not reacting appropriately to the situation.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, Yes. “Unfortunately, not enough jobs are being created in our current economy, and any jobs created by robots, digital agents, and AI tools will tend to be high skill, high paying jobs, so it seems inevitable to me that they will not be as numerous as the number of low skill, low paying jobs that will be lost as a results of these technologies.”
An information science professional replied, Yes. “The focus of AI, etc., seems to be on personalized service (coffee pot and other kitchen gadgets controlled remotely, customized service for a person’s preferences). That will dig into going outside the home for items (why go to a coffee shop when your machine has been set/trained to give you exactly what you want) or services when they can be delivered straight to you. Cocooning could take on a entirely new dimension.”
A metadata librarian based in a large US metropolitan area commented, No. “I don’t believe that technology ever eliminates more jobs than it creates, but I believe that the problem will be Can people adapt? and Will education prepare students? for the changes in store. Every new industry creates jobs but the problem occurs when people are unprepared or feel unwilling to adapt. I believe that will occur, but that’s more on human nature than on innovation. The number of total jobs won’t decrease, and will probably require more workers than the industries of today. Again, occupations and pastimes that don’t require creativity will be most affected. Any action that can be done only half thinking or by rote stands to be affected by AI or robotics. Any activity that is repetitive, whether it’s making breakfast or photocopies could be automated. And any activity that is reflective of an individual’s nature or emotions such as parenting or creating art will appear to be the least affected.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I do think these advances will displace a lot of jobs but if history is any predictor, new jobs will be created. Anything that’s dangerous—driving, high-risk jobs—or dull will be done by robots and AI. Creative work will still be done by humans.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “I understand the concern, but there have always been predictions of doom and gloom in the past. Humans are about to be replaced each decade, but then some new invention and action comes about. I believe that the naysayers underestimate the inventiveness that exists.”
An information science professional in Colorado commented, Yes. “While I think AI applications and devices will create many new job opportunities in areas not yet even imagined, I also think AI applications and devices will eliminate more of the blue color type jobs. This will lead to an even wider gap between those who have specialized training and those who do not. I see areas such as food service being largely replaced by AI and robotics. Also there will be replacements in areas such as public transportation, custodial duties, call support centers and more.”
An information science professional replied, Yes. “Any job that has a risk to it will be done by Robots in the future. While the new jobs will be in running the robots, the number of people required to do this will be less than the actual work. We still need creative, intellectual people to think of the next step and to keep AI devices working correctly. They will be all around us. From a drone dropping off packages to a library checking in and sorting library materials to assembling products in a factory, AI is here to stay and will become more prevalent in the future.”
An analyst at a US think tank observed, Yes. “Although they will create jobs, it will be fewer than they replace, because they will largely be implemented as a cost-saving measure. People will increasingly rely on sophisticated recommendation engines to guide their decision-making. Semi-autonomous cars will be starting to become common.”
An assistant professor at the University of Albany-State University of New York, responded, Yes. “I would assume that a key motive for developing and building robotic machinery, to include AI, will be to reduce labor costs. I don’t think AI will be part of the landscape yet, but robotics will probably be important and increasingly common.”
An anonymous survey participant who works in the US executive branch commented, No. “Jobs will have been created, however the retraining of individuals skilled for ‘old jobs’ will have been lost. Jobs will go unfilled because we haven’t retrained them for the new jobs required. Several things we do today that are risky will be done by robotics and automation tomorrow. By 2025 there will be advancements in transportation, shipping, cleaning of tall buildings, stock market bids, real estate services. Areas still untouched by then: robot-only surgery on humans, anything that can be done more cheaply by a human versus having a robot do it.”
A technology policy expert responded, No. “The technology will not be mature enough in 2025 to displace more jobs than are created—yet. This will ultimately happen, however. These will become more integrated into society—to some extent they are already integrated into wealthy societies, depending on your threshold for what you consider ‘AI.’ Artificial intelligence, after a fashion, is already massively influential over your online experience.”
A president and principal consultant at a product usability consulting firm replied, Yes. “The jobs displaced will be at the bottom of the pyramid, and the jobs create will be at the top. There are more jobs at the bottom than the top, so more jobs will be eliminated than created. This may lead to unfulfilled demand at the top, as the supply of highly trained, specialized workers may not meet the need. To a great degree.”
A professor emeritus of political science wrote, No. “Technological advances will create new jobs but they are not likely to be blue-collar jobs. I still will think that my martinis and manhattans are better than a robot’s. Robots an AI will not replace artists—but artists will learn to use them better.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “They will create new jobs, functions that machines don’t fulfill very well. There is a strong chance that many of these jobs will be lower-compensated service jobs, as compared to the manufacturing and less creative white-collar jobs they replace. This impact will be further magnified by increasing globalization, pushing compensation lower. There is the chance that the economic gap between the very wealthy and those who are not will continue to grow, spurring unrest to the level of revolution. AI (or more accurately Virtual Intelligence—VI) will impact us in ways that will largely be invisible. VI agents will help us find things, propose solutions (products?) that meet our needs, and robotics combined with on-demand manufacturing will make ‘stuff’ cheaper and more ubiquitous than ever.”
A researcher and academic replied, No. “This is a 50-50 response; as they replace jobs they also create jobs. What the balance will be on the destructive-creative job capacity of AI, robotic and digital agents is a toss-up. Transportation-major change. Distribution channels-major change. Industrial production/manufacturing—continuing change. Personal services remain unchanged.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Having worked in innovation units for legacy industries (healthcare and telecommunications), I do not believe that 2025 is a long enough timeline for robots, digital agents, and AI to displace more jobs than they create. A ~17 year time horizon is more reasonable, given the length of time required for seasoned industry professionals to retire and be replaced by younger, tech savvy employees. Humans will work alongside robots and digital agents with humans manipulating the machines (rather than machines working semi autonomously and entirely replacing human workers.) Internet of Things will affect energy usage and consumption. Homes will be equipped to optimize for resource use and humans will be able to remotely monitor all aspects of their physical lives. Enterprise technology will make knowledge acquisition easier, thus freeing up employee time and advancing productivity.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “Every disruption reduces the number of jobs but it’s possible that activities and products we don’t know about will help to replace the jobs.”
An anonymous respondent said, Yes. “For all of the empowerment created by drones and the like, they will replace more and more menial jobs. We will be forced to be able to stretch jobs out or work less with better benefit systems.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. I don’t think so. “There has always been a tendency for automation to replace jobs, but those new technologies still create jobs. I think it’s more fruitful to think of these kinds of events in repetitive cycles (or maybe waves is a better analogy), in which the introduction of a new technology leads to job loss for a particular job category or class, followed by the creation of new ones. There will always be people displaced and harmed, but others will benefit by the creation of new jobs. This doesn’t mean that an area negatively affected will bounce back, though. Consider the loss to Southern and Central Michigan, particularly Flint and Detroit, when the auto industry moved production elsewhere, or the loss to Gary, Indiana when the steel mills pulled back in their production. These areas are in a long, slow process of trying to reimagine themselves, and the effects on these communities have had devastating, long-term consequences. But we’ve also seen areas build up in response to new technological developments. My field is a social science, so I’m not sure I’m qualified to speculate about this, but I think that historically, we’ve imagined automated homes and cars, and that technology is here (except that our cars don’t fly as they did on my favorite childhood cartoon, The Jetsons). Although we claim to not trust AI (thinking of Arthur C. Clark’s 2001: A Space Odyssey), corporate greed seems to trump ethics more often than we’d like to admit, so I see it as an integral part of modern conveniences. Today: Furby under the Christmas tree; tomorrow: a toy ‘friend”? AI will be useful in helping us with day-to-day living, learning our preferences at home (air temperature and humidity, lighting, music, water temperature for our showers, our favorite recipes and drinks, and what time we go to bed and get up—perhaps even letting the dog out on schedule!). If it is already being used to build cars that can parallel park themselves, it can be used to keep us from crashing into each other, too, hopefully. Sorry, I’m sure these are not particularly original ideas.”
An educational technology consultant responded, Yes. “Knowledge workers will be come an upper class. Jobs like cab drivers and chauffeurs will be taken over by robots. Art workers will have a new meaning. With more time for leisure, people will find ways to enjoy life. Museums and art galleries will have a new meaning. Cities like Las Vegas will become more predominant all over the world. Gambling will be become a mainstay in every society. Robot agents will man the casinos.”
An independent scholar replied, No. “They’ve already displaced a lot of jobs. Drivers, not so much displacement there.”
A survey research professional at a university based in Ohio responded, No. “People will have to create and maintain these technologies.”
A data specialist for a public opinion research company wrote, No. “Hacking and security will continue to remain a huge barrier for mass-scale AI integration. What’s to stop terrorist groups from hacking self-driving cars? Think Ghost in the Shell.”
A self-employed survey researcher and statistical analyst and research professor at the University of California-Berkeley replied, Yes. “They will displace people but no, they will create more jobs. The trouble is: we are not training people for these jobs. So we will have an even more divided world by economic and educational class. I hope they will change the situation for elderly people for the positive.”
A knowledge expert and consultant based in Australia commented, No. “Basically these advances should dramatically increase worker productivity and allow us to use resources more efficiently. Historically these kinds of developments have not lead to mass unemployment over the long term. However the short to medium term impacts can be very dislocating for particular categories of workers. The question is whether governments and employers will have the will and the money cushion the lives of the losers in the changes.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “AI will radically change the economic structure—I think it will be a very different world and a very different workforce in 2025. Robotics, AI, self-driving cars, etc., will be part of the accepted landscape in 2025.”
A CEO wrote, No. “Humans’ capacity and resources will always remain needful in respect to AI advancement. People will still be involved in front-office customer relations. Yon can’t use artificial intelligence for business transactions, the AI is very much limited to that extent.”
A professor in the Department of Communication Studies at Texas State University replied, No. “There has been and will continue to be a shift in the workforce, but I suspect no net loss/gain of jobs by 2025. AI/robotics will be ‘normal’ and typical by 2025. I cannot think of any aspect of life that will remain unchanged. The challenge will be adapting to the changes.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Many of the customer-service jobs will be done by AI in the future. Siri is taking on the world.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Technology generally spurs economic growth, which helps create jobs. The electric car took forever to get to the market, even though the technology was in place for years. The AI, robot car will take sometime to be cheap enough and have enough demand to be commonplace. Besides cars, health care, and a few other industries, there may not be noticeable changes to our life because of AI and robots.”
An analyst for a central government Institution in Chile responded, No. “It is likely that such advances will displace a lot of jobs. But if still is true that people will receive from work the means of subsistence, then they will still need to work. Displaced by ‘better’ workers they could end in a) informal sector or b) personal services -anything when people demand people. The quality of those jobs does not need to be high anyway (on the other hand, since products are only produced if they are sold, in the limit people will be provided with some means to buy things; unless robots are treated completely as people, case in which if robots can create demand on its own people will not be needed for the operation of the system. But that scenario is not for 2025 anyway. It is likely than AI (if not strictly true AI, something near it -it could be needed to be taken on account that true AI has been just at the corner for a couple of decades) will be part of ordinary landscape: Some things are already part of it (Google predicting what could be searching, Siri, etc.) Robotics is probably less likely. Robots in a lot of work scenarios do not equal ordinary landscape of the general population (and it is likely that people could still prefer human servants to robotic ones).”
A communications professor at a state university in California commented, Yes. “For low technology jobs, machines will replace cheap labor in the lessor developed countries. All manufacturing will be done by robots.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “Robotics and digital agents will take some white-collar and blue-collar jobs, but they may also create more jobs for those who work in the field of AI and robotics. People will be communicating more with tools if technological advancement enables such tools to listen to people.”
A social scientist at a North American university replied, Yes. “Displacement comes first; expansion comes afterwards Principally in manufacturing and service sector.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Robots as such will not be visible.”
A retired professor and head of a communication technology professional association of academics commented, No. “Replacing jobs will result in shifting people into new, unimagined as yet, forms of employment. The quality of jobs will increase. Individuals who cannot advance their knowledge and skill sets will be removed from the grid. On the whole, however, the number of new highly technologically skilled jobs will exceed the displaced jobs. Most of the advances will not be feasible to the general population. Transportation may become more automated, as might shopping, and shipping, but these will not be significant life changing processes for most individuals.”
A principal sampling statistician at the American Institutes for Research replied, No. “AI will displace many white-collar and blue-collar jobs. The nation will have to become increasingly high tech to take advantage of the new opportunities created. Yes, to the same extent that cell phones are now ubiquitous. There will be folks who resist using AI and robotics. By 2025 we will be able to depend on AI for the detailed aspects of daily life but not long-term planning or questions of values.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, No. “I am an optimist, and would hope that robotics will take us further and further away from mundane tasks. This has the potential to free us up for a rich future of innovation to solve problems concerning the environment and scarcity of resources. We could employ many more people to improve our live. This will require a more active government and serious private and public funding to accomplish it, the biggest challenge getting citizens and politicians on the same page in this goal while making policy. There will probably be a lot less change by 2025 than what would be presented in sci-fi literature, but in various facets of your lives. Specifically, this is hard to say. I would look for ways to manage and best exploit the abundant information and modes of communication we now have. Could be interesting in places we do not usually associate technology, like agriculture. Precise use of land and maintenance of crops, not requiring herbicides, instead each farm could have extensive robotics to maximize yield while caring for the land.”
A research assistant at the Polytechnic University of Portugal commented, No. “As with the Industrial Revolution, this will imply changes. There will be less labor in the fields in which the robots and AI take over, more in other business. I don’t expect robots to be fulfilling art jobs or other that require human contact and emotion I think we will see optimization. Self driving cars will avoid accidents and allowing to work during your commute or even have a good time with family on road trips; you will have more help well selecting what is your best interest when performing any given action, removing the stress of going through every scenario and rationalizing. But you will still be able to have those moments where you jog or go to the park with your family. Basically, they will do the ‘heavy load’ of thinking, analyzing and so on.”
A PhD and active scholar of online communities replied, No. “New jobs will emerge from the use of this technology that we can’t anticipate. We will need people to maintain and install these AIs and to monitor them. There will be sales agents to sell these systems and to compare products from different companies. I would love to see more automated transportation, and that is coming. Self-driving cars and mass transit automation will, I think, be part of the general landscape of our society. Fast food might become more automated, at least the systems of ordering.”
A research scientist at the University of New Hampshire wrote, No. “Jobs will be lost despite what happens in this area due to increased productivity and robotics. Jobs will be created when people don’t have jobs Cars will still be driven manually.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “A lot of low-paid jobs will be replaced by these, while contributing positively to the overall economy. Gains will mostly be captured by capital, contributing to greater economic and social disparities.”
A professor and center director at a major university in the UK wrote, No. “Historically, on balance, advances in ICTs have created more jobs than they have destroyed. Failing to adopt new technologies will kill even more jobs. Probably in transportation.”
A research associate and PhD student at the University of St. Gallen replied, Yes. “The Race Against the Machine book summarizes the arguments quite nicely. Such devices will replace middle-class service jobs that are not as easy to replace. They will be a substantial part—although not as encompassing as certain Sci-Fi movies envision.”
A professor at The New School, based in New York City, commented, Yes. “There is currently no evidence that they create more jobs than they displace. No reason to assume that this will change in a little more than a decade. The very nature of these developments is to reduce workforce costs. The most dramatic changes are already here. We just don’t see them.”
An information science professional based in Connecticut wrote, No. “By 2025, I hope there will be a backlash against all the job-killers like AI and global manufacturing. We have created a society of customer service, and not everyone is suited for that! Hopefully, it won’t be any more visible than it is now.”
A social sciences PhD in a research training group at university responded, No. “There will be other jobs, not less jobs.”
An academic researcher exploring the Internet and society commented, Yes. “The use of the word ‘created’ above is problematic. Displaced, sure, that’s very possible. But create? Is this AI of sufficient intelligence that it can hire humans and running companies? That’s unlikely by 2025. Is the question really talking about associated industries that develop around the management of AI? That’s unlikely to cause mass employment not at the expense of something else. The whole point of AI-like technology is that it’s more self sufficient. Hopefully survey question design will be improved.”
A research analyst with a survey research firm replied, Yes. “It’s undeniable that future technological advances will displace jobs—human labor to some extent will inevitably be replaced by new machines and technology, exactly like what occurred during the industrial revolution. The real question is how many workers will potentially be replaced, and will these advances actually create new jobs in monitoring, up-keeping, etc. the technology. In the simplest of words, changes will come in everyday living. Our homes, workplaces, shops will all be transformed (for better or worse) the most by new tools and technology. Specifically, there will advances and new tools that will: keep us safer and probably even healthier; get things done more efficiently; communicate and exchange information even faster; and entertain us in novel ways. This would also include similar changes to transportation and communication media. On the other hand, the parts of life that will likely remain relatively unchanged.”
A usability engineer wrote, Yes. “AI and robotic devices will eventually create new jobs requiring higher skill levels, but the number of new jobs will be less than those eliminated. Also, education in the US is not as good as it should be, so that will also slow the growth of new technical-related jobs. Two areas may be general cleaning/maintenance and, ironically, medicine. Advances in robotic surgeries and procedures will advance.”
A survey research professional who has worked for decades for government, academic, and commercial organizations responded, Yes. “If I just look at our field, we have survey specialists that spend an inordinate amount of time doing non-probabilistic matching of records, outlier detection, editing and follow-up. Training computers can save a lot of time. I can only imagine what this would mean to Wall Street trading. They will be everywhere—with a strong counterculture of Luddites near every university campus. and for the most bizarre things. For example, toilets that sense you are home and fill up with water as you enter the bathroom, but remain empty all day long to reduce the millions of gallons of water lost to evaporation. The emphasis will be on reducing passive consumption of everything—water, energy, human capital.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “I don’t think we will live in a robotic world, but technology is increasing. It could take over some aspects of education as it is already, but robots might not be able to replace each job out there.”
A lecturer at a university replied, No. “Though robotic devices will be built to accompany e.g. the elderly at their homes, it does not mean that we could manage all that without human skilled workers in the creation of the AI tools, scientific study of their implications, and also in the day-to-day operations and maintenance that these tools require. I live in Finland, and here the main changes that are visible now are not yet real robots but intelligent components and applications that appear as part of everyday devices.”
An associate professor of IT management at California Lutheran University responded, Yes. “Just like many other technical advances (bulldozers replacing shovels, etc.), jobs are displaced and restructured routinely. It’s not that the new tech will necessarily create a comparable number of new jobs—even if it did, the old workers wouldn’t necessarily be qualified for them. But there will, in a capitalist system, be ways to use that additional labor. Significant incursion into driving, certainly, as well as shopping, stock trading, arrangements that used to require significant tradeoffs (e.g., plane fares, flight times, seat assignments).”
A professor at the University of South Carolina wrote, No. “The net gain/loss of jobs will be neutral. As jobs are lost, more are created. Smart apps for personal devices will be ubiquitous. Automobile technology will promote safety and convenience.”
An anonymous survey participant responded, Yes. “This is a scary thought. Increasingly manufacturing jobs will be automated. In the industrialized world there will be a displacement of human labor in favor of more reliable and more productive automated solutions. This will increasing extend to some service occupations. The McDonaldsization of Everything thesis is largely correct. We will have more and more unemployment, and a large number of unemployable individuals. A truly scary thought. How will be consumer economy survive if large number of potential consumers have no income? What does that mean for the social environment and stability? The problem is even worse for developing nations. Consider that I am substituting capital costs for labor costs. As the capital costs of automation decrease I achieve the state where labor costs are virtually immaterial. Why, then, should I outsource anything to China, Thailand, or the Dominican Republic? And what then happens to economic and social stability there? Perhaps to most likely immediate change may be in transportation. Self-driving cars are on the horizon, and my sense is that what is holding them up is more an issue of legal and regulatory acceptance than technological issues. The car I presently drive (2013 Ford Fusion) already parallel parks itself (and does so much more quickly and consistently than can I), warns me if I stray from my lane of traffic, slows down in traffic under cruise control, beeps at me if it senses that I am too close to what it thinks is an obstruction, and of course tells me how to get from point A to point B. Seriously, the step from this to letting the car do its own thing does not appear to be all that great.”
A PhD candidate studying newsworthiness in online and traditional media commented, No. “My guess is robots and various digital agents will be used the most in sectors of the economy that are already under consistent pressure to cut back on labor. The specific technology of robots, digital agents and AI tools matters less than the overall trend.”
An associate professor at the University of Illinois-Urbana-Champaign wrote, Yes. “In 10 years robotics and AI would have advance to the point where certain routine jobs will be reduced. However, there will be a demand for jobs in the area of programming and security. We will see growth in service type jobs (cooking, bus driving, nursing), but see a reduction in jobs such as librarians, teachers, auto repair. Mowing lawns, washing clothes and dishes, auto repair, musicians, will change. How we meet and date will change. Education will change, pharmaceutical dispensing (Pharmacist) manufacturing of goods will change. Unchanged will be nursing, physical therapies, speech therapies. Medical practice will change through telehealth. Although there are attempts at virtual psychotherapy, I do not believe it will change in terms of avatar representation of therapists who communicate with real people. We will still rely on real people for psychotherapy.”
A lecturer and researcher at a public university in Australia wrote, Yes. “I base my predictions on what has happened to date. I do not foresee a great change in human attitudes to one another just because technology advances. Certain social norms change since people cannot change conditions very easily—and thus they become accepting of those changes they cannot control. In terms of the number of jobs being lost—it already is apparent that new technology breeds itself, and that fewer human hands are needed for their manufacture. 3D printing comes to mind. The so-called blue-collar work will become less necessary while some professions such as plumbing and engineering will be more well-paid, perhaps. The trend is towards saving money and increasing profits for big tech and engineering firms. Why would they intentionally want to increase the number of jobs they provide unless the motive were profit. Of course, what goes around comes around—one needs well-paid workers who are able to purchase certain products. On the other hand, some of the products may be priced out of the range of the actual technicians. It remains to be seen whether further jobs in the technical and electronic industries are encouraged by new technology—but since everything is interconnected, there may be some gap in time before balance is achieved. I am thinking here of poor education funding for those in blue-collar neighbourhoods for example, and poor access to further education for those who are unable to overcome early hurdles in their education. shopping—if we do go out to engage in the material world of consumer goods and food, then one of those jobs lost will be the check-out counter person. our credit rating and ability to purchase will be irrevocably tied to our biometric identity, which will be linked to whatever mobile device is popular, and activated by biometric log-in. The social consequences appear huge to me—if population growth is not controlled, I foresee large numbers of underpaid and poorly educated people who will represent a growing underclass—they will not have access to latest technology easily, and may become less likely to observe middle class values. already companies are linking credit rating to people’s histories and making it available to those who want to know, the banks being part of the set up. Perhaps there will be extra policing jobs available, or perhaps even those jobs will be digitally-enhanced and roboticised. In animal species, a lack of resources leads to a natural drop in the birthrate, but I am not sure that our increasing reliance on technology will have an effect on human population. This is a political matter perhaps. Robots are already being used to police internationally and locally, e.g. drones. Many of the upheavals in both Western and non-Western countries are in part due to competition for and access to resources—and many refugees stake their lives on making it to a more benign place to live where resources might be more available to them. I see a connection between this competition for resources and those who control the resources and the technology used to effect such control. I would hope that most of us would drive less, but unfortunately, perhaps not. Public transport might become cheaper and safer, so one would hope that more people would use it. But those with the wherewithal will always rather drive themselves, even as a status symbol. So, some may not care that their control extends only to input as to where they wish to end up, and will not mind which way they are taken by forces beyond their control. But I surmise that there’ll still be many folks who will want to be in control of their own vehicles, even if it is only a modicum. at the same time, this will be limited control, since roadways and traffic will be monitored and users will pay. Not necessarily by 2025, but soon enough. Perhaps the joy of driving will be reduced to what one does in a fun parlour and a simulator. Or, more likely, at home using a computer-generated environment. In this type of scenario then, it is possible public transport would not be as necessary—white-collar workers need not leave their well-equipped homes in order to conduct their livelihoods. However, food and other necessities would still need to be obtained, or delivered. If the roads were congested, perhaps congestion tax might discourage people from driving to obtain food and other items, and they’d merely have them delivered. It seems, however, most people enjoy shopping and the materiality of consumer goods, as well as enjoy ‘going to the fair.’ As an aside, to my mind, there is no such thing as ‘artificial intelligence’—intelligence might be simulated, but that is not the same thing as artificial intelligence. A definition of intelligence for me needs to include some idea of sentience, so, do we extend the idea of self-awareness to robots such as we see in star trek? I value my technological apparatuses to the extent that I give them personalities, and even address them, but this does not mean that I believe they can think and especially, feel for themselves. There are potential areas where life could change dramatically, if technology is promulgated to the extent that some industrialists might envision. for example, for some years managers of universities and schools have tried to advance the notion that students can learn at their ‘own pace’ and select their own paths, given the recent technological advances in educational facilities online. Why, they can learn online and need never interact with other students undertaking the same courses. They need never speak face to face with a teacher. With advances in robotics and so-called AI we can all live happily indoors, at a computer in our own rooms, with a technologically and algorithmically enhanced machine which will cater to our educational needs, dependent on how well we perform the various tasks designated as indicators of our prowess at learning skills determined to be useful for this brave new world. We’ll all be individuals. And medicine. Doctors are rather expensive to educate, and providing medical care to a burgeoning population also costs. a cheaper alternative might be to allow patients to have their vitals monitored by robots, who could then decide which specialist robot we need to be directed to next in order to further our treatment. streamlined education and medicine for all! I’m sorry I seem to have been reduced to sarcasm, but my vision of the future is somewhat dystopian, given that our population keeps growing, and our need for clean water, air and soil also grows—I do not see that any future where food water and air are cleaned technologically will arrive before there has been catastrophic collapse of our biosphere and before we lose earth’s natural capacity to balance itself without such devastation. if we are lucky, there may come a time when robotics/technology will be able to produce clean energy in order to provide us with our living requirements as far as nutrients and shelter is concerned—but this can only come about through prolonged funding and effort by humans in that direction. Meanwhile, will we still be able to walk in the parks? How big will these parks be? Will they have any natural sun? Will they have any animal life other than rats, insects and pigeons? Will we be watched and monitored even in larger parks such as Yellowstone? Will there be a certain number of visitors allowed in the park per day and then shall we be allowed to roam freely without robotic park rangers caring for the remnant vegetation and herding the humans who cannot be trusted to look after it on their own? I cannot see a paradigm shift huge enough to subvert these dystopian images I have of the future.”
An anonymous respondent replied, Yes. “Automation will lead to more job loss overall. Many new ways of providing customized services that help people use technology will evolve, and possibly more outlets will lead to more creative jobs as people find their own small markets for their products.”
A PhD candidate at the University of Southern California replied, No. “We’ve already seen a mechanization of factory labor. This asks about a mechanization of service sector labor, e.g., taxis, butlers, etc. I don’t think the technology will be affordable and stable enough to have displaced cheap human labor to the point that we’ve lost more jobs than we’ve created. Not many jobs will be lost, and more jobs will be oriented towards R&D and rushing the first/best/tricked-out prototypes to market. I can foresee robotics playing more of a role in surgeries and AI in terms of learning about (rich) home-owners’ habits, e.g., anticipating their showering time by turning on the lights in the bathroom or even starting the shower, etc. Most of life will be relatively unchanged, however.”
A postdoctoral researcher commented, No. While we will lose lots of middle-class jobs, blaming tech for those losses is only one side of the story. The other side is libertarian economic policy, and I’d rather not get those two stories confused. Whether or not we think digital agents are a worthy political and social goal is yet another story, but that’s a political matter, not an academic one.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, No. “They may disrupt jobs, but they will not displace jobs. There will be more jobs, if anything, creating and maintaining the new technologies. 2025 is remarkably close, and we remain simultaneously in awe of and fearful of invasive technology, particularly AI. The reality is that much will remain unchanged.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “Creative destruction is alive and well. Although I believe we are going through a particularly difficult period with job losses, the creative juices of people will continue to innovate and create new jobs. That said, I have great concerns about the types of jobs that will be created and income/wealth inequality. I think that we need policies to direct the labor market. For example, I think that resources for education and workforce development are very important. I support a substantial increase in the minimum wage (or wages across localities) and flexible work environments. AI will be huge and will have a major impact on society. Automation will continue to grow in transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. People will increasingly depend on robots for emotional support, such as therapy and an ‘ear.’ Medical diagnosis and treatment will be increasingly automated. Education will include greater automation for the ‘first round’ of teaching. There are some things that I cannot picture being automated. For example, the arts and entertainment, journalism, and research and innovation.”
A PhD candidate at the University of Oslo responded, Yes. “Robots will disrupt jobs, but new fields will also open up with new job possibilities, particularly related to new energy resources.”
An assistant professor at Hanyang University commented, Yes. “Just read Makers by Doctorow.”
An assistant professor at the London School of Economics wrote, No. “I am not an economist, so my answer here is sketchy. However, my instinct is that it would be foolish to put such changes down to a single factor, i.e. a technocentric explanation. Shifting global power may play a greater role, for example.”
An anonymous respondent replied, No. “The new blue-collar jobs will be those who build, operate, and maintain these new applications and devices. The new white-collar jobs will be those that involve decision making on what to build and how to use these applications. There will be a great deal of change.”
An anonymous survey participant wrote, No. “AI tools will certainly disrupt white and blue-collar jobs. I see the major issue as one of retraining workers to learn new skills; ones that require human intelligence. This will be seen as a threat unless and until the benefits of the changing landscape become apparent to those displace by the advances. If we look at how rapidly these tools have been incorporated into our lives and the profound changes that have accompanied this shift, it will certainly be very easy to underestimate the impact. I don’t think I can even truly imagine the changes that will be taking place in the next dozen years.”
An anonymous respondent based in Russia commented, No. “The job market is fluid and it follows technology. The problem is not unemployment but extreme inequality in distribution of resources. They will be more pervasive and more accepted.”
An anonymous respondent wrote, Yes. “These technologies will displace labor. The additional wealth through these channels and others will eventually create demand for other services and products with a resulting derived demand for labor. So, in the very long run, different jobs will emerge. But that is in the long run. The distribution of income could be quite different.”
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To read credited responses to the report, please click here.