The prediction, in brief:

Cognitive skills are going to be permanently more valuable and unskilled labor permanently less valuable.

Predictor: Romer, Paul

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Forbes ASAP magazine, Peter Robinson interviews Paul Romer, the leading proponent of New Growth Theory, a branch of economics that incorporates technology in its formulation of estimates. Robinson writes:”Romer argues that the information revolution will wreak its own havoc. ‘Cognitive skills are going to be permanently more valuable and unskilled labor permanently less valuable.’ Romer, however, does not propose less competition. He proposes more, particularly in American schools. ‘It seems to me that any reasonable proposal for educational reform has to involve a much greater degree of competition in our schools than we’ve seen so far.'”

Biography:

Paul Romer, a professor of economics at Stanford University, was named one of America’s 25 most influential people by Time magazine in 1997. His papers include “Science, Economic Growth and Public Policy” (in Technology, R&D, and the Economy, Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute, 1996), and he wrote a number of articles on technology and growth. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Forbes ASAP

Title, headline, chapter name: Paul Romer

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web8.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+0%2C1%2C2%2C3%2C4+ln+en%2Dus+sid+3563D23E%2D0959%2D4AF2%2DA29E%2DBA529B43B6A7%40Sessionmgr4%2DSessionmgr3+C1E4&_us=bs+Paul++Romer+ds+Paul++Romer+dstb+ES+fh+0+hd+0+hs+0+or+Date+ri+KAAACB3A00066385+sm+ES+ss+SO+2CB4&fn=1&rn=2

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney