Just as containerization revolutionized the transport business, ATM is revolutionizing communications.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Forbes ASAP titled “The Bandwidth Tidal Wave,” George Gilder looks at the technology involved in the networking revolution. The article is a portion of his 1996 book “Telecosm.” Gilder writes: ”The most important short-term contributor to the tides of bandwidth is a new communications technology called asynchronous transfer mode. ATM is to telecommunications what containerization is to transport. It puts everything into same-sized boxes that can be readily handled by automated equipment. Just as containerization revolutionized the transport business, ATM is revolutionizing communications. In the case of ATM, the boxes are called cells and each one is 53 bytes long, including a five-byte address. The telephone industry chose 53 bytes as the largest possible container that could deliver real-time voice communications. But the computer industry embraced it because it allows fully silicon switching and routing. Free of complex software, small packets of a uniform 53 bytes can be switched at enormous speeds through an ATM network and dispatched to the end users on a fixed schedule that can accommodate voice, video and data, all at once.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Forbes ASAP
Title, headline, chapter name: The Bandwidth Tidal Wave
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~gaj1/bandgg.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney