We can imagine a network with a range of PC-sized nodes costing between $500 and $5,000 that provides person-to-person communication, television and when used together (including in parallel), an arbitrarily large computer … This architecture will drive out most other computer structures such as massively parallel computers, low-priced workstations and all but a few special-purpose processors. This doomsday for hardware manufacturers will arrive before the next two generations of computer hardware play out at the end of the decade. But it will be ideal for users.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Forbes ASAP titled “The Bandwidth Tidal Wave,” George Gilder looks at the technology involved in the networking revolution. The article is a portion of his 1996 book “Telecosm.” Gilder quotes Gordon Bell: ”Gordon Bell, now on Microsoft’s technical advisory board, sums up the future of computing in an ATM world: ‘We can imagine a network with a range of PC-sized nodes costing between $500 and $5,000 that provides person-to-person communication, television and when used together (including in parallel), an arbitrarily large computer. Clearly, because of standards, ubiquity of service and software market size, this architecture will drive out most other computer structures such as massively parallel computers, low-priced workstations and all but a few special-purpose processors. This doomsday for hardware manufacturers will arrive before the next two generations of computer hardware play out at the end of the decade. But it will be ideal for users.'”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Forbes ASAP
Title, headline, chapter name: The Bandwidth Tidal Wave
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~gaj1/bandgg.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney