The prediction, in brief:

With so many channels available on the information highway, the producing companies will not be able to maintain any form of monopolistic control. When the pipe is wide enough to carry everything, they won’t be able to restrict their product to a few preferred outlets. The technology will force the market open.

Predictor: Gilder, George

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 column for The New York Times, Hans Fantel quotes George Gilder, a man known for cooking up interesting concepts about the future of networked communications. Fantel writes:”One reason Apple and Microsoft are not chasing the studios or networks with merger bids, Mr. Gilder believes, is that the computer companies already know they’re holding a winning hand. ‘It doesn’t matter that the studios own the movies,’ says Mr. Gilder. ‘With so many channels available on the information highway, the producing companies will not be able to maintain any form of monopolistic control. When the pipe is wide enough to carry everything, they won’t be able to restrict their product to a few preferred outlets. The technology will force the market open.'”

Biography:

George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)

Date of prediction: May 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: New York Times

Title, headline, chapter name: Home Entertainment: New Off-Ramps On Info Highway For Couch Potatoes

Quote Type: Partial quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=34a2fd6cbc25f0b21668c52d81dce473&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVtb-lSlAl&_md5=85f66e7027d0077596a0a5d4cb3a8b7d

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney