The new explosions of bandwidth enable interactive multimedia and video, riding on radio frequencies, into every household …If the personal computer cannot handle these streams … the huge promise of the PC industry, with its richness of productivity tools and cultural benefits, could give way to an incoherent babel of toys, videophones and 3D games.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Forbes ASAP titled “The Bandwidth Tidal Wave,” George Gilder looks at the technology involved in the networking revolution. The article is a portion of his 1996 book “Telecosm.” Gilder writes: ”The new explosions of bandwidth enable interactive multimedia and video, riding on radio frequencies, into every household – through the air from satellites and terrestrial wireless systems, through fiberoptic threads and cable TV and even phone-company coax. If the personal computer cannot handle these streams, John Malone’s set-top boxes, Sega or Nintendo game machines or Bill Gates’s new communications technology will. A communications technology that can manage multimedia in full flood can also in time relegate one of Grove’s CPUs to service as a minor peripheral. The huge promise of the PC industry, with its richness of productivity tools and cultural benefits, could give way to an incoherent babel of toys, videophones and 3D games. Redeeming the new era for the general-purpose PC entails overcoming the technical culture and mindset of bandwidth scarcity.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Bandwidth
Name of publication: Forbes ASAP
Title, headline, chapter name: The Bandwidth Tidal Wave
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~gaj1/bandgg.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney