The prediction, in brief:

As CMC grows in popularity, there will be less need for face-to-face interaction. It is one of the supreme ironies of the utopian view of CMC that it is likely to reduce that felt sense of community that it so nostalgically seems to uphold as virtuous. In its place will be a community of interest in which members will be able to drift in and out. One of the key aspects of community is having to deal with and resolve conflicts. It is either the height of arrogance or defeat when one chooses or is forced to leave his or her community over an unresolved conflict. Typically, leaving a community is emotionally traumatic. Leaving a virtual community might be as easy as changing the channel on a television set.

Predictor: Fernback, Jan

Prediction, in context:

A paper titled “Computer-Mediated Communication and the American Collectivity: The Dimensions of Community Within Cyberspace,” by Jan Fernback and Brad Thompson, was presented at the annual convention of the International Communication Association, Albuquerque, N.M., May 1995. It was reprinted in full form on Howard Rheingold’s Web site. This is an excerpt:”As CMC [Computer-Mediated Communication] grows in popularity, there will be less need for face-to-face interaction. It is one of the supreme ironies of the utopian view of CMC that it is likely to reduce that felt sense of community that it so nostalgically seems to uphold as virtuous. In its place will be a community of interest in which members will be able to drift in and out. One of the key aspects of community is having to deal with and resolve conflicts. It is either the height of arrogance or defeat when one chooses or is forced to leave his or her community over an unresolved conflict. Typically, leaving a community is emotionally traumatic. Leaving a virtual community might be as easy as changing the channel on a television set. So É another political consequence of widespread adoption of CMC technology will be to create communities that are less stable than traditional geographic, historic or ethnic communities. Again, virtual community seems to merely reinforce the already fragmented landscape of the public sphere.”

Date of prediction: May 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Community/Culture

Subtopic: Virtual Communities

Name of publication: Rheingold.com

Title, headline, chapter name: Virtual Communities: Abort, Retry, Failure?

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.rheingold.com/texts/techpolitix/VCcivil.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney