The prediction, in brief:

New technologies tend to change old ways of doing things. Is the human need for community going to be the next technology commodity?

Predictor: Rheingold, Howard

Prediction, in context:

Howard Rheingold, at the time the editor of The Whole Earth Review and a prolific member of the Well online community, became an advocate for such groups. In 1988 The Whole Earth Review published his article, “Virtual Communities.” Four years later, he said, “I reread it and realized that I had learned a few things, and that the world I was observing had changed. So I rewrote it.” The following excerpts are taken from this 1992 rewrite, which was published online by the Electronic Frontier Foundation. Portions of it also appeared in “Globalizing Networks: Computers and International Communication,” edited by Linda Harasim and Jan Walls (MIT Press) and in the book “The Virtual Community,” by Rheingold (MIT Press). Rheingold writes:”If CMC has a potential, it is in the way people in so many parts of the Net fiercely defend the use of the term ‘community’ to describe the relationships we have built online. But fierceness of belief is not sufficient evidence that the belief is sound. Is the aura of community an illusion? The question has not been answered and is worth asking. I’ve seen people hurt by interactions in virtual communities. Is telecommunication culture capable of becoming something more than what Scott Peck calls a ‘pseudo-community,’ where people lack the genuine personal commitments to one another that form the bedrock of genuine community? Or is our notion of ‘genuine’ changing in an age where more people every day live their lives in increasingly artificial environments? New technologies tend to change old ways of doing things. Is the human need for community going to be the next technology commodity?”

Biography:

Howard Rheingold, one of the first writers to illuminate the ideals and foibles of virtual communities, published a webzine called Electric Minds and wrote “Virtual Reality,” “Smart Mobs” and “Virtual Community.” He also was the editor of Whole Earth Review and the Millennium Whole Earth Catalog. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1992

Topic of prediction: Community/Culture

Subtopic: Virtual Communities

Name of publication: Electronic Frontier Foundation

Title, headline, chapter name: A Slice of Life in My Virtual Community: A Cybernaut’s-Eye View

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.cosy.sbg.ac.at/doc/eegtti/eeg_261.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney