Internet can be bigger than the PC and rival the telephone … Internet 2.0 is upsetting everyone’s forecasts.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In the keynote speech at InternetWorld 1995, pioneering computer scientist Gordon Bell, formerly of Digital Equipment Corporation and then a research leader at Microsoft, says: ”Internet can be bigger than the PC and rival the telephone … In 1995 there are 154 countries, 40,000 networks, 4.8 million computers, and who knows how many people [online]. What we’d like to know is who they are and how much time they spend surfing? How many home pages? How many hits per page? Which countries are producers and which are consumers? and on an on. Larry Roberts, one of the creators of ARPAnet, [made a prediction] in 1992. In 1992 the traffic being carried by the NSF backbone was not even forecast. He projected that video conferencing and video on demand would not be appreciable until 2005. Furthermore, e-mail would not be very large until 2020 to rival voice traffic. Internet 2.0 is upsetting everyone’s forecasts.”
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: InternetWorld 1995 Conference
Title, headline, chapter name: It’s Bandwidth and Symmetry, Stupid!
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://research.microsoft.com/~gbell/IntWorld/tsld002.htm
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney